Human studies report conflicting results on the predictive power of serum lipids on progression of chronic kidney disease (CKD). We aimed to systematically identify the lipids that predict progression to end-stage kidney disease.

BACKGROUNDMetabolomic profiling in individuals with chronic kidney disease (CKD) has the potential to identify novel biomarkers and provide insight into disease pathogenesis.METHODSWe examined the association between blood metabolites and CKD progression, defined as the subsequent development of end-stage renal disease (ESRD) or estimated glomerular filtrate rate (eGFR) halving, in 1,773 participants of the Chronic Renal Insufficiency Cohort (CRIC) study, 962 participants of the African-American Study of Kidney Disease and Hypertension (AASK), and 5,305 participants of the Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities (ARIC) study.RESULTSIn CRIC, more than half of the measured metabolites were associated with CKD progression in minimally adjusted Cox proportional hazards models, but the number and strength of associations were markedly attenuated by serial adjustment for covariates, particularly eGFR. Ten metabolites were significantly associated with CKD progression in fully adjusted models in CRIC; 3 of these metabolites were also significant in fully adjusted models in AASK and ARIC, highlighting potential markers of glomerular filtration (pseudouridine), histamine metabolism (methylimidazoleacetate), and azotemia (homocitrulline). Our findings also highlight N-acetylserine as a potential marker of kidney tubular function, with significant associations with CKD progression observed in CRIC and ARIC.CONCLUSIONOur findings demonstrate the application of metabolomics to identify potential biomarkers and causal pathways in CKD progression.FUNDINGThis study was supported by the NIH (U01 DK106981, U01 DK106982, U01 DK085689, R01 DK108803, and R01 DK124399).

Inflammation is a consequence of chronic kidney disease (CKD) and is associated with adverse outcomes in many clinical settings. Inflammation stimulates production of fibroblast growth factor 23 (FGF23), high levels of which are independently associated with mortality in CKD. Few large-scale prospective studies have examined inflammation and mortality in patients with CKD, and none tested the interrelationships among inflammation, FGF23, and risk of death. Therefore, we conducted a prospective investigation of 3875 participants in the Chronic Renal Insufficiency Cohort (CRIC) study with CKD stages 2 to 4 to test the associations of baseline plasma interleukin-6, high-sensitivity C-reactive protein, and FGF23 levels with all-cause mortality, censoring at the onset of end-stage renal disease. During a median follow-up of 6.9 years, 550 participants died (20.5/1000 person-years) prior to end-stage renal disease. In separate multivariable-adjusted analyses, higher levels of interleukin-6 (hazard ratio per one standard deviation increase of natural log-transformed levels) 1.35 (95% confidence interval, 1.25-1.46), C-reactive protein 1.28 (1.16-1.40), and FGF23 1.45 (1.32-1.60) were each independently associated with increased risk of death. With further adjustment for FGF23, the risks of death associated with interleukin-6 and C-reactive protein were minimally attenuated. Compared to participants in the lowest quartiles of inflammation and FGF23, the multivariable-adjusted hazard ratio of death among those in the highest quartiles of both biomarkers was 4.38 (2.65-7.23) for interleukin-6 and FGF23, and 5.54 (3.04-10.09) for C-reactive protein and FGF23. Thus, elevated levels of interleukin-6, C-reactive protein, and FGF23 are independent risk factors for mortality in CKD.