Estimation of temporal changes in human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) transmission patterns can help to elucidate the impact of preventive strategies and public health policies.

In 2009, a novel Bunyavirus, called severe fever with thrombocytopenia syndrome virus (SFTSV) was identified in the vicinity of Huaiyangshan, China. Clinical symptoms of this zoonotic virus included severe fever, thrombocytopenia, and leukocytopenia, with a mortality rate of ~10%. By the end of 2011 the disease associated with this pathogen had been reported from eleven Chinese provinces and human-to-human transmission suspected. However, current understanding of the evolution and molecular epidemiology of SFTSV before and after its identification is limited. To address this we undertake phylogenetic, evolutionary and structural analyses of all available SFTSV genetic sequences, including a new SFTSV complete genome isolated from a patient from Henan in 2011. Our discovery of a mosaic L segment sequence, which is descended from two major circulating lineages of SFTSV in China, represents the first evidence that homologous recombination plays a role in SFTSV evolution. Selection analyses indicate that negative selection is predominant in SFTSV genes, yet differences in selective forces among genes are consistent between Phlebovirus species. Further analysis reveals structural conservation between SFTSV and Rift Valley fever virus in the residues of their nucleocapsids that are responsible for oligomerisation and RNA-binding, suggesting the viruses share similar modes of higher-order assembly. We reconstruct the epidemic history of SFTSV using molecular clock and coalescent-based methods, revealing that the extant SFTSV lineages originated 50-150 years ago, and that the viral population experienced a recent growth phase that concurs with and extends the earliest serological reports of SFTSV infection. Taken together, our combined structural and phylogenetic analyses shed light into the evolutionary behaviour of SFTSV in the context of other, better-known, pathogenic Phleboviruses.

The Amazon basin is home to numerous arthropod-borne viral pathogens that cause febrile disease in humans. Among these, Oropouche orthobunyavirus (OROV) is a relatively understudied member of the genus Orthobunyavirus, family Peribunyaviridae, that causes periodic outbreaks in human populations in Brazil and other South American countries. Although several studies have described the genetic diversity of the virus, the evolutionary processes that shape the OROV genome remain poorly understood. Here, we present a comprehensive study of the genomic dynamics of OROV that encompasses phylogenetic analysis, evolutionary rate estimates, inference of natural selective pressures, recombination and reassortment, and structural analysis of OROV variants. Our study includes all available published sequences, as well as a set of new OROV genome sequences obtained from patients in Ecuador, representing the first set of genomes from this country. Our results show differing evolutionary processes on the three segments that comprise the viral genome. We infer differing times of the most recent common ancestors of the genome segments and propose that this can be explained by cryptic reassortment. We also present the discovery of previously unobserved putative N-linked glycosylation sites, as well as codons that evolve under positive selection on the viral surface proteins, and discuss the potential role of these features in the evolution of OROV through a combined phylogenetic and structural approach.IMPORTANCE The emergence and reemergence of pathogens such as Zika virus, chikungunya virus, and yellow fever virus have drawn attention toward other cocirculating arboviruses in South America. Oropouche virus (OROV) is a poorly studied pathogen responsible for over a dozen outbreaks since the early 1960s and represents a public health burden to countries such as Brazil, Panama, and Peru. OROV is likely underreported since its symptomatology can be easily confounded with other febrile illnesses (e.g., dengue fever and leptospirosis) and point-of-care testing for the virus is still uncommon. With limited data, there is a need to optimize the information currently available. Analysis of OROV genomes can help us understand how the virus circulates in nature and can reveal the evolutionary forces that shape the genetic diversity of the virus, which has implications for molecular diagnostics and the design of potential vaccines.

A novel H7N9 influenza A virus first detected in March 2013 has since caused more than 130 human infections in China, resulting in 40 deaths. Preliminary analyses suggest that the virus is a reassortant of H7, N9 and H9N2 avian influenza viruses, and carries some amino acids associated with mammalian receptor binding, raising concerns of a new pandemic. However, neither the source populations of the H7N9 outbreak lineage nor the conditions for its genesis are fully known. Using a combination of active surveillance, screening of virus archives, and evolutionary analyses, here we show that H7 viruses probably transferred from domestic duck to chicken populations in China on at least two independent occasions. We show that the H7 viruses subsequently reassorted with enzootic H9N2 viruses to generate the H7N9 outbreak lineage, and a related previously unrecognized H7N7 lineage. The H7N9 outbreak lineage has spread over a large geographic region and is prevalent in chickens at live poultry markets, which are thought to be the immediate source of human infections. Whether the H7N9 outbreak lineage has, or will, become enzootic in China and neighbouring regions requires further investigation. The discovery here of a related H7N7 influenza virus in chickens that has the ability to infect mammals experimentally, suggests that H7 viruses may pose threats beyond the current outbreak. The continuing prevalence of H7 viruses in poultry could lead to the generation of highly pathogenic variants and further sporadic human infections, with a continued risk of the virus acquiring human-to-human transmissibility.

Rabies is an important but underestimated threat to public health, with most cases reported in Asia. Since 2000, a new epidemic wave of rabies has emerged in Yunnan Province, southwestern China, which borders three countries in Southeast Asia.

The substantial increase in prevalence and emergence of antigenically divergent or highly pathogenic influenza A(H7N9) viruses during 2016-17 raises concerns about the epizootic potential of these viruses. We investigated the evolution and adaptation of H7N9 viruses by analyzing available data and newly generated virus sequences isolated in Guangdong Province, China, during 2015-2017. Phylogenetic analyses showed that circulating H7N9 viruses belong to distinct lineages with differing spatial distributions. Hemagglutination inhibition assays performed on serum samples from patients infected with these viruses identified 3 antigenic clusters for 16 strains of different virus lineages. We used ancestral sequence reconstruction to identify parallel amino acid changes on multiple separate lineages. We inferred that mutations in hemagglutinin occur primarily at sites involved in receptor recognition or antigenicity. Our results indicate that highly pathogenic strains likely emerged from viruses circulating in eastern Guangdong Province during March 2016 and are associated with a high rate of adaptive molecular evolution.

Since the ignition of the HIV-1 group M pandemic in the beginning of the 20th century, group M lineages have spread heterogeneously throughout the world. Subtype C spread rapidly through sub-Saharan Africa and is currently the dominant HIV lineage worldwide. Yet the epidemiological and evolutionary circumstances that contributed to its epidemiological expansion remain poorly understood. Here, we analyse 346 novel pol sequences from the DRC to compare the evolutionary dynamics of the main HIV-1 lineages, subtypes A1, C and D. Our results place the origins of subtype C in the 1950s in Mbuji-Mayi, the mining city of southern DRC, while subtypes A1 and D emerged in the capital city of Kinshasa, and subtypes H and J in the less accessible port city of Matadi. Following a 15-year period of local transmission in southern DRC, we find that subtype C spread at least three-fold faster than other subtypes circulating in Central and East Africa. In conclusion, our results shed light on the origins of HIV-1 main lineages and suggest that socio-historical rather than evolutionary factors may have determined the epidemiological fate of subtype C in sub-Saharan Africa.

As viral genomic imprints in host genomes, endogenous viral elements (EVEs) shed light on the deep evolutionary history of viruses, ancestral host ranges, and ancient viral-host interactions. In addition, they may provide crucial information for calibrating viral evolutionary timescales. In this study, we conducted a comprehensive in silico screening of a large data set of available mammalian genomes for EVEs deriving from members of the viral family Flaviviridae, an important group of viruses including well-known human pathogens, such as Zika, dengue, or hepatitis C viruses. We identified two novel pestivirus-like EVEs in the reference genome of the Indochinese shrew (Crocidura indochinensis). Homologs of these novel EVEs were subsequently detected in vivo by molecular detection and sequencing in 27 shrew species, including 26 species representing a wide distribution within the Crocidurinae subfamily and one in the Soricinae subfamily on different continents. Based on this wide distribution, we estimate that the integration event occurred before the last common ancestor of the subfamily, about 10.8 million years ago, attesting to an ancient origin of pestiviruses and Flaviviridae in general. Moreover, we provide the first description of Flaviviridae-derived EVEs in mammals even though the family encompasses numerous mammal-infecting members. This also suggests that shrews were past and perhaps also current natural reservoirs of pestiviruses. Taken together, our results expand the current known Pestivirus host range and provide novel insight into the ancient evolutionary history of pestiviruses and the Flaviviridae family in general.

The SARS-CoV-2 epidemic in southern Africa has been characterized by three distinct waves. The first was associated with a mix of SARS-CoV-2 lineages, while the second and third waves were driven by the Beta (B.1.351) and Delta (B.1.617.2) variants, respectively1-3. In November 2021, genomic surveillance teams in South Africa and Botswana detected a new SARS-CoV-2 variant associated with a rapid resurgence of infections in Gauteng province, South Africa. Within three days of the first genome being uploaded, it was designated a variant of concern (Omicron, B.1.1.529) by the World Health Organization and, within three weeks, had been identified in 87 countries. The Omicron variant is exceptional for carrying over 30 mutations in the spike glycoprotein, which are predicted to influence antibody neutralization and spike function4. Here we describe the genomic profile and early transmission dynamics of Omicron, highlighting the rapid spread in regions with high levels of population immunity.