Recent longitudinal studies in youth have reported MRI correlates of prospective anxiety symptoms during adolescence, a vulnerable period for the onset of anxiety disorders. However, their predictive value has not been established. Individual prediction through machine-learning algorithms might help bridge the gap to clinical relevance. A voting classifier with Random Forest, Support Vector Machine and Logistic Regression algorithms was used to evaluate the predictive pertinence of gray matter volumes of interest and psychometric scores in the detection of prospective clinical anxiety. Participants with clinical anxiety at age 18-23 (N = 156) were investigated at age 14 along with healthy controls (N = 424). Shapley values were extracted for in-depth interpretation of feature importance. Prospective prediction of pooled anxiety disorders relied mostly on psychometric features and achieved moderate performance (area under the receiver operating curve = 0.68), while generalized anxiety disorder (GAD) prediction achieved similar performance. MRI regional volumes did not improve the prediction performance of prospective pooled anxiety disorders with respect to psychometric features alone, but they improved the prediction performance of GAD, with the caudate and pallidum volumes being among the most contributing features. To conclude, in non-anxious 14 year old adolescents, future clinical anxiety onset 4-8 years later could be individually predicted. Psychometric features such as neuroticism, hopelessness and emotional symptoms were the main contributors to pooled anxiety disorders prediction. Neuroanatomical data, such as caudate and pallidum volume, proved valuable for GAD and should be included in prospective clinical anxiety prediction in adolescents.

Adolescence is a period of major brain reorganization shaped by biologically timed and by environmental factors. We sought to discover linked patterns of covariation between brain structural development and a wide array of these factors by leveraging data from the IMAGEN study, a longitudinal population-based cohort of adolescents. Brain structural measures and a comprehensive array of non-imaging features (relating to demographic, anthropometric, and psychosocial characteristics) were available on 1476 IMAGEN participants aged 14 years and from a subsample reassessed at age 19 years (n = 714). We applied sparse canonical correlation analyses (sCCA) to the cross-sectional and longitudinal data to extract modes with maximum covariation between neuroimaging and non-imaging measures. Separate sCCAs for cortical thickness, cortical surface area and subcortical volumes confirmed that each imaging phenotype was correlated with non-imaging features (sCCA r range: 0.30-0.65, all PFDR < 0.001). Total intracranial volume and global measures of cortical thickness and surface area had the highest canonical cross-loadings (|ρ| = 0.31-0.61). Age, physical growth and sex had the highest association with adolescent brain structure (|ρ| = 0.24-0.62); at baseline, further significant positive associations were noted for cognitive measures while negative associations were observed at both time points for prenatal parental smoking, life events, and negative affect and substance use in youth (|ρ| = 0.10-0.23). Sex, physical growth and age are the dominant influences on adolescent brain development. We highlight the persistent negative influences of prenatal parental smoking and youth substance use as they are modifiable and of relevance for public health initiatives.

There is an extensive body of literature linking ADHD to overweight and obesity. Research indicates that impulsivity features of ADHD account for a degree of this overlap. The neural and polygenic correlates of this association have not been thoroughly examined. In participants of the IMAGEN study, we found that impulsivity symptoms and body mass index (BMI) were associated (r = 0.10, n = 874, p = 0.014 FWE corrected), as were their respective polygenic risk scores (PRS) (r = 0.17, n = 874, p = 6.5 × 10-6 FWE corrected). We then examined whether the phenotypes of impulsivity and BMI, and the PRS scores of ADHD and BMI, shared common associations with whole-brain grey matter and the Monetary Incentive Delay fMRI task, which associates with reward-related impulsivity. A sparse partial least squared analysis (sPLS) revealed a shared neural substrate that associated with both the phenotypes and PRS scores. In a last step, we conducted a bias corrected bootstrapped mediation analysis with the neural substrate score from the sPLS as the mediator. The ADHD PRS associated with impulsivity symptoms (b = 0.006, 90% CIs = 0.001, 0.019) and BMI (b = 0.009, 90% CIs = 0.001, 0.025) via the neuroimaging substrate. The BMI PRS associated with BMI (b = 0.014, 95% CIs = 0.003, 0.033) and impulsivity symptoms (b = 0.009, 90% CIs = 0.001, 0.025) via the neuroimaging substrate. A common neural substrate may (in part) underpin shared genetic liability for ADHD and BMI and the manifestation of their (observable) phenotypic association.