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Exposure to metals may contribute to the development of metabolic syndrome (MetS); however, evidence from midlife women who are at greater risk of cardiometabolic disease is limited. We assessed the associations of 15 urinary metal concentrations with incident MetS in a prospective cohort of midlife women in the United States. The study population included 947 White, Black, Chinese and Japanese women, aged 45-56 years, free of MetS at baseline (1999-2000), who participated in the Study of Women's Health Across the Nation Multi-Pollutant Study. Fifteen metals were detected in almost all participants urine samples using inductively coupled plasma mass spectrometry at the baseline. Incident MetS was identified annually through 2017 as having at least three of the following five components: high blood pressure, impaired fasting glucose, abdominal obesity, high triglycerides, and poor high-density lipoprotein cholesterol. We used the Cox proportional hazards models to investigate the associations between individual metals and MetS incidence. The adjusted hazard ratios (HR) (95% CI) for MetS in associations with each doubling of urinary metal concentration were 1.14 (1.08, 1.23) for arsenic, 1.14 (1.01, 1.29) for cobalt, and 1.20 (1.06, 1.37) for zinc. We further evaluated the associations between metal mixtures and MetS using the elastic net penalized Cox model and summarized the results into the environmental risk score (ERS). Arsenic, barium, cobalt, copper, nickel, antimony, thallium, and zinc had positive weights, and cadmium, cesium, mercury, molybdenum, lead, and tin had negative weights in the construction of the ERS. The adjusted HR of MetS comparing 75th vs. 25th percentiles of the ERS was 1.45 (1.13, 1.87). These findings support the view that arsenic, cobalt, zinc, as well as metal mixtures, might influence the risks of incident MetS in midlife women.
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