Zoonotic influenza infections continue to threaten human health. Ongoing surveillance and risk assessment of animal viruses are needed for pandemic preparedness, and population immunity is an important component of risk assessment. We determined age-stratified hemagglutinin inhibition seroprevalence against 5 swine influenza viruses circulating in Hong Kong and Guangzhou in China. Using hemagglutinin inhibition seroprevalence and titers, we modeled the effect of population immunity on the basic reproduction number (R0) if each virus were to become transmissible among humans. Among 353 individual serum samples, we reported low seroprevalence for triple-reassortant H1N2 and Eurasian avian-like H1N1 influenza viruses, which would reduce R0 by only 18%-20%. The smallest R0 needed to cause a pandemic was 1.22-1.24, meaning existing population immunity would be insufficient to block the spread of these H1N1 or H1N2 variants. For human-origin H3N2, existing population immunity could suppress R0 by 47%, thus reducing pandemic risk.

Haemagglutination inhibition (HAI) antibody titres are a correlate of protection for influenza virus infection, but several studies have also demonstrated the protective role of anti-neuraminidase (anti-NA) antibodies. However, there is limited data on anti-NA antibody responses in naturally occurring human influenza. We investigated anti-NA antibody responses to pandemic N1 and seasonal N1 in 18 RT-PCR-confirmed patients with naturally acquired pandemic influenza A (H1N1) 2009 disease detected as part of a prospective community study of influenza. There were increases in neuraminidase inhibition (NAI) antibody titres to both pandemic and seasonal N1 antigens, with greater fold increases in those who had low levels of anti-pandemic N1 titres in acute sera. Of 18 patients with pandemic H1N1 infection, fourfold increases in antibody were observed by HAI in 11 (61%) patients, by anti-pandemic N1 inhibition in 13 (72%) or either in 15 of them (83%). Prior seasonal H1N1 virus infections had elicited cross-reactive anti-pandemic N1 antibody titres in some people prior to the emergence of the 2009 pandemic H1N1 virus. Antibody responses to the anti-N1 pandemic 2009 virus and cross-reactive responses to anti-seasonal N1 antibody were seen in influenza A pandemic 2009 infections. NAI antibodies can complement HAI antibody in sero-diagnosis and sero-epidemiology.

A novel H7N9 influenza A virus first detected in March 2013 has since caused more than 130 human infections in China, resulting in 40 deaths. Preliminary analyses suggest that the virus is a reassortant of H7, N9 and H9N2 avian influenza viruses, and carries some amino acids associated with mammalian receptor binding, raising concerns of a new pandemic. However, neither the source populations of the H7N9 outbreak lineage nor the conditions for its genesis are fully known. Using a combination of active surveillance, screening of virus archives, and evolutionary analyses, here we show that H7 viruses probably transferred from domestic duck to chicken populations in China on at least two independent occasions. We show that the H7 viruses subsequently reassorted with enzootic H9N2 viruses to generate the H7N9 outbreak lineage, and a related previously unrecognized H7N7 lineage. The H7N9 outbreak lineage has spread over a large geographic region and is prevalent in chickens at live poultry markets, which are thought to be the immediate source of human infections. Whether the H7N9 outbreak lineage has, or will, become enzootic in China and neighbouring regions requires further investigation. The discovery here of a related H7N7 influenza virus in chickens that has the ability to infect mammals experimentally, suggests that H7 viruses may pose threats beyond the current outbreak. The continuing prevalence of H7 viruses in poultry could lead to the generation of highly pathogenic variants and further sporadic human infections, with a continued risk of the virus acquiring human-to-human transmissibility.

If highly pathogenic H5N1 influenza viruses acquire affinity for human rather than avian respiratory epithelium, will their susceptibility to neuraminidase (NA) inhibitors (the likely first line of defense against an influenza pandemic) change as well? Adequate pandemic preparedness requires that this question be answered. We generated and tested 31 recombinants of A/Vietnam/1203/04 (H5N1) influenza virus carrying single, double, or triple mutations located within or near the receptor binding site in the hemagglutinin (HA) glycoprotein that alter H5 HA binding affinity or specificity. To gain insight into how combinations of HA and NA mutations can affect the sensitivity of H5N1 virus to NA inhibitors, we also rescued viruses carrying the HA changes together with the H274Y NA substitution, which was reported to confer resistance to the NA inhibitor oseltamivir. Twenty viruses were genetically stable. The triple N158S/Q226L/N248D HA mutation (which eliminates a glycosylation site at position 158) caused a switch from avian to human receptor specificity. In cultures of differentiated human airway epithelial (NHBE) cells, which provide an ex vivo model that recapitulates the receptors in the human respiratory tract, none of the HA-mutant recombinants showed reduced susceptibility to antiviral drugs (oseltamivir or zanamivir). This finding was consistent with the results of NA enzyme inhibition assay, which appears to predict influenza virus susceptibility in vivo. Therefore, acquisition of human-like receptor specificity does not affect susceptibility to NA inhibitors. Sequence analysis of the NA gene alone, rather than analysis of both the NA and HA genes, and phenotypic assays in NHBE cells are likely to adequately identify drug-resistant H5N1 variants isolated from humans during an outbreak.

Influenza viruses replicate within the nucleus of infected cells. Viral genomic RNA, three polymerase subunits (PB2, PB1, and PA), and the nucleoprotein (NP) form ribonucleoprotein complexes (RNPs) that are exported from the nucleus late during the infectious cycle. The virus-induced Raf/MEK/ERK (MAPK) signal cascade is crucial for efficient virus replication. Blockade of this pathway retards RNP export and reduces virus titers. Hemagglutinin (HA) accumulation and its tight association with lipid rafts activate ERK and enhance localization of cytoplasmic RNPs. We studied the induction of MAPK signal cascade by two seasonal human influenza A viruses A/HK/218449/06 (H3N2) and A/HK/218847/06 (H1N1) that differed substantially in their replication efficiency in tissue culture. Infection with H3N2 virus, which replicates efficiently, resulted in higher HA expression and its accumulation on the cell membrane, leading to substantially increased activation of MAPK signaling compared to that caused by H1N1 subtype. More H3N2-HAs were expressed and accumulated on the cell membrane than did H1N1-HAs. Viral polymerase genes, particularly H3N2-PB1 and H3N2-PB2, were observed to contribute to increased viral polymerase activity. Applying plasmid-based reverse genetics to analyze the role of PB1 protein in activating HA-induced MAPK cascade showed that recombinant H1N1 virus possessing the H3N2-PB1 (rgH1N1/H3N2-PB1) induced greater ERK activation, resulting in increased nuclear export of the viral genome and higr virus titers. We conclude that enhanced viral polymerase activity promotes the replication and transcription of viral RNA leading to increased accumulation of HA on the cell surface and thereby resulting in an upregulation of the MAPK cascade and more efficient nuclear RNP-export as well as virus production.

H5N1 influenza viruses transmitted from poultry to humans in Asia cause high mortality and pose a pandemic threat. Viral genes important for cell tropism and replication efficiency must be identified to elucidate and target virulence factors. We applied reverse genetics to generate H5N1 reassortants combining genes of lethal A/Vietnam/1203/04 (VN1203), a fatal human case isolate, and nonlethal A/chicken/Vietnam/C58/04 (CH58) and tested their pathogenicity in ferrets and mice. The viruses' hemagglutinins have six amino acids differences, identical cleavage sites, and avian-like alpha-(2,3)-linked receptor specificity. Surprisingly, exchanging hemagglutinin and neuraminidase genes did not alter pathogenicity, but substituting CH58 polymerase genes completely attenuated VN1203 virulence and reduced viral polymerase activity. CH58's NS gene partially attenuated VN1203 in ferrets but not in mice. Our findings suggest that for high virulence in mammalian species an avian H5N1 virus with a cleavable hemagglutinin requires adaptive changes in polymerase genes to overcome the species barrier. Thus, novel antivirals targeting polymerase proteins should be developed.

In addition to causing 12 human deaths and 17 cases of human infection, the 2004 outbreak of H5N1 influenza virus in Thailand resulted in the death or slaughter of 60 million domestic fowl and the disruption of poultry production and trade. After domestic ducks were recognized as silent carriers of H5N1 influenza virus, government teams went into every village to cull flocks in which virus was detected; these team efforts markedly reduced H5N1 infection. Here we examine the pathobiology and epidemiology of H5N1 influenza virus in the 4 systems of duck raising used in Thailand in 2004. No influenza viruses were detected in ducks raised in "closed" houses with high biosecurity. However, H5N1 influenza virus was prevalent among ducks raised in "open" houses, free-ranging (grazing) ducks, and backyard ducks.

It is generally accepted that human influenza viruses bind glycans containing sialic acid linked α2-6 to the next sugar, that avian influenza viruses bind glycans containing the α2-3 linkage, and that mutations that change the binding specificity might change the host tropism. We noted that human H3N2 viruses showed dramatic differences in their binding specificity, and so we embarked on a study of representative human H3N2 influenza viruses, isolated from 1968 to 2012, that had been isolated and minimally passaged only in mammalian cells, never in eggs. The 45 viruses were grown in MDCK cells, purified, fluorescently labeled and screened on the Consortium for Functional Glycomics Glycan Array. Viruses isolated in the same season have similar binding specificity profiles but the profiles show marked year-to-year variation. None of the 610 glycans on the array (166 sialylated glycans) bound to all viruses; the closest was Neu5Acα2-6(Galβ1-4GlcNAc)3 in either a linear or biantennary form, that bound 42 of the 45 viruses. The earliest human H3N2 viruses preferentially bound short, branched sialylated glycans while recent viruses bind better to long polylactosamine chains terminating in sialic acid. Viruses isolated in 1996, 2006, 2010 and 2012 bind glycans with α2-3 linked sialic acid; for 2006, 2010 and 2012 viruses this binding was inhibited by oseltamivir, indicating binding of α2-3 sialylated glycans by neuraminidase. More significantly, oseltamivir inhibited virus entry of 2010 and 2012 viruses into MDCK cells. All of these viruses were representative of epidemic strains that spread around the world, so all could infect and transmit between humans with high efficiency. We conclude that the year-to-year variation in receptor binding specificity is a consequence of amino acid sequence changes driven by antigenic drift, and that viruses with quite different binding specificity and avidity are equally fit to infect and transmit in the human population.

The error-prone RNA-dependent RNA polymerase (RdRP) and external selective pressures are the driving forces for RNA viral diversity. When confounded by selective pressures, it is difficult to assess if influenza A viruses (IAV) that have a wide host range possess comparable or distinct spontaneous mutational frequency in their RdRPs. We used in-depth bioinformatics analyses to assess the spontaneous mutational frequencies of two RdRPs derived from human seasonal (A/Wuhan/359/95; Wuhan) and H5N1 (A/Vietnam/1203/04; VN1203) viruses using the mini-genome system with a common firefly luciferase reporter serving as the template. High-fidelity reverse transcriptase was applied to generate high-quality mutational spectra which allowed us to assess and compare the mutational frequencies and mutable motifs along a target sequence of the two RdRPs of two different subtypes. We observed correlated mutational spectra (τ correlation P < 0.0001), comparable mutational frequencies (H3N2:5.8 ± 0.9; H5N1:6.0 ± 0.5), and discovered a highly mutable motif "(A)AAG" for both Wuhan and VN1203 RdRPs. Results were then confirmed with two recombinant A/Puerto Rico/8/34 (PR8) viruses that possess RdRP derived from Wuhan or VN1203 (RG-PR8×Wuhan(PB2, PB1, PA, NP) and RG-PR8×VN1203(PB2, PB1, PA, NP)). Applying novel bioinformatics analysis on influenza mutational spectra, we provide a platform for a comprehensive analysis of the spontaneous mutation spectra for an RNA virus.

Reservoirs for the continuing influenza (H5N1) outbreaks in Egypt are ill-defined. Through active surveillance, we detected highly pathogenic influenza subtype H5 viruses in all poultry sectors; incidence was 5%. No other subtypes were found. Continued circulation of influenza (H5N1) viruses in various regions and poultry sectors perpetuates human exposure in Egypt.

Genetic diversity of influenza A viruses (IAV) acquired through the error-prone RNA-dependent RNA polymerase (RdRP) or through genetic reassortment enables perpetuation of IAV in humans through epidemics or pandemics. Here, to assess the biological significance of genetic diversity acquired through RdRP, we characterize an IAV fidelity variant derived from passaging a seasonal H3N2 virus in the presence of ribavirin, a purine analogue that increases guanosine-to-adenosine mutations. We demonstrate that a single PB1-V43I mutation increases selectivity to guanosine in A/Wuhan/359/95 (H3N2) and A/Vietnam/1203/04 (H5N1) viruses. The H5N1 PB1-V43I-recombinant virus replicates to comparable titres as the wild-type virus in vitro or in the mouse lungs. However, a decrease in viral population diversity at day 3 post inoculation is associated with a tenfold reduced lethality and neurotropism in mice. Applying a fidelity variant with reduced mutational frequency, we provide direct experimental evidence for the role of genetic diversity in IAV pathogenesis.

Human infection with avian influenza A(H9N2) virus was identified in Bangladesh in 2011. Surveillance for influenza viruses in apparently healthy poultry in live-bird markets in Bangladesh during 2008-2011 showed that subtype H9N2 viruses are isolated year-round, whereas highly pathogenic subtype H5N1 viruses are co-isolated with subtype H9N2 primarily during the winter months. Phylogenetic analysis of the subtype H9N2 viruses showed that they are reassortants possessing 3 gene segments related to subtype H7N3; the remaining gene segments were from the subtype H9N2 G1 clade. We detected no reassortment with subtype H5N1 viruses. Serologic analyses of subtype H9N2 viruses from chickens revealed antigenic conservation, whereas analyses of viruses from quail showed antigenic drift. Molecular analysis showed that multiple mammalian-specific mutations have become fixed in the subtype H9N2 viruses, including changes in the hemagglutinin, matrix, and polymerase proteins. Our results indicate that these viruses could mutate to be transmissible from birds to mammals, including humans.

Wild birds have been implicated in the emergence of human and livestock influenza. The successful prediction of viral spread and disease emergence, as well as formulation of preparedness plans have been hampered by a critical lack of knowledge of viral movements between different host populations. The patterns of viral spread and subsequent risk posed by wild bird viruses therefore remain unpredictable. Here we analyze genomic data, including 287 newly sequenced avian influenza A virus (AIV) samples isolated over a 34-year period of continuous systematic surveillance of North American migratory birds. We use a Bayesian statistical framework to test hypotheses of viral migration, population structure and patterns of genetic reassortment. Our results reveal that despite the high prevalence of Charadriiformes infected in Delaware Bay this host population does not appear to significantly contribute to the North American AIV diversity sampled in Anseriformes. In contrast, influenza viruses sampled from Anseriformes in Alberta are representative of the AIV diversity circulating in North American Anseriformes. While AIV may be restricted to specific migratory flyways over short time frames, our large-scale analysis showed that the long-term persistence of AIV was independent of bird flyways with migration between populations throughout North America. Analysis of long-term surveillance data provides vital insights to develop appropriately informed predictive models critical for pandemic preparedness and livestock protection.

The molecular processes that determine the outcome of influenza virus infection in humans are multifactorial and involve a complex interplay between host, viral and bacterial factors1. However, it is generally accepted that a strong innate immune dysregulation known as 'cytokine storm' contributes to the pathology of infections with the 1918 H1N1 pandemic or the highly pathogenic avian influenza viruses of the H5N1 subtype2-4. The RNA sensor retinoic acid-inducible gene I (RIG-I) plays an important role in sensing viral infection and initiating a signalling cascade that leads to interferon expression5. Here, we show that short aberrant RNAs (mini viral RNAs (mvRNAs)), produced by the viral RNA polymerase during the replication of the viral RNA genome, bind to and activate RIG-I and lead to the expression of interferon-β. We find that erroneous polymerase activity, dysregulation of viral RNA replication or the presence of avian-specific amino acids underlie mvRNA generation and cytokine expression in mammalian cells. By deep sequencing RNA samples from the lungs of ferrets infected with influenza viruses, we show that mvRNAs are generated during infection in vivo. We propose that mvRNAs act as the main agonists of RIG-I during influenza virus infection.

The emergence of influenza A virus (IAV) in domestic avian species and associated transmissions to mammals is unpredictable. In the Americas, the H7 IAVs are of particular concern, and there have been four separate outbreaks of highly pathogenic (HP) H7N3 in domestic poultry in North and South America between 2002 and 2012, with occasional spillover into humans. Here, we use long-term IAV surveillance in North American shorebirds at Delaware Bay, USA, from 1985 to 2012 and in ducks in Alberta, Canada, from 1976 to 2012 to determine which hemagglutinin (HA)-neuraminidase (NA) combinations predominated in Anseriformes (ducks) and Charadriiformes (shorebirds) and whether there is concordance between peaks of H7 prevalence and transmission in wild aquatic birds and the emergence of H7 IAVs in poultry and humans. Whole-genome sequencing supported phylogenetic and genomic constellation analyses to determine whether HP IAVs emerge in the context of specific internal gene segment sequences. Phylogenetic analysis of whole-genome sequences of the H7N3 influenza viruses from wild birds and HP H7N3 outbreaks in the Americas indicate that each HP outbreak was an independent emergence event and that the low pathogenic (LP) avian influenza precursors were most likely from dabbling ducks. The different polybasic cleavage sites in the four HP outbreaks support independent origins. At the 95% nucleotide percent identity-level phylogenetic analysis showed that the wild duck HA, PB1, and M sequences clustered with the poultry and human outbreak sequences. The genomic constellation analysis strongly suggests that gene segments/virus flow from wild birds to domestic poultry.

The endemicity of highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) A(H5N1) viruses in Asia has led to the generation of reassortant H5 strains with novel gene constellations. A newly emerged HPAI A(H5N8) virus caused poultry outbreaks in the Republic of Korea in 2014. Because newly emerging high-pathogenicity H5 viruses continue to pose public health risks, it is imperative that their pathobiological properties be examined. Here, we characterized A/mallard duck/Korea/W452/2014 (MDk/W452(H5N8)), a representative virus, and evaluated its pathogenic and pandemic potential in various animal models. We found that MDk/W452(H5N8), which originated from the reassortment of wild bird viruses harbored by migratory waterfowl in eastern China, replicated systemically and was lethal in chickens, but appeared to be attenuated, albeit efficiently transmitted, in ducks. Despite predominant attachment to avian-like virus receptors, MDk/W452(H5N8) also exhibited detectable human virus-like receptor binding and replicated in human respiratory tract tissues. In mice, MDk/W452(H5N8) was moderately pathogenic and had limited tissue tropism relative to previous HPAI A(H5N1) viruses. It also induced moderate nasal wash titers in inoculated ferrets; additionally, it was recovered in extrapulmonary tissues and one of three direct-contact ferrets seroconverted without shedding. Moreover, domesticated cats appeared to be more susceptible than dogs to virus infection. With their potential to become established in ducks, continued circulation of A(H5N8) viruses could alter the genetic evolution of pre-existing avian poultry strains. Overall, detailed virological investigation remains a necessity given the capacity of H5 viruses to evolve to cause human illness with few changes in the viral genome.

On March 15, 2010, a highly pathogenic avian influenza virus was isolated from the carcass of a common buzzard (Buteo buteo) in Bulgaria. Phylogenetic analyses of the virus showed a close genetic relationship with influenza virus A (H5N1) clade 2.3.2.1 viruses isolated from wild birds in the Tyva Republic and Mongolia during 2009-2010. Designated A/common buzzard/Bulgaria/38WB/2010, this strain was highly pathogenic in chickens but had low pathogenicity in mice and ferrets and no molecular markers of increased pathogenicity in mammals. The establishment of clade 2.3.2.1 highly pathogenic avian influenza viruses of the H5N1 subtype in wild birds in Europe would increase the likelihood of health threats to humans and poultry in the region.

Human infection with avian influenza A(H7N9) virus is associated mainly with the exposure to infected poultry. The factors that allow interspecies transmission but limit human-to-human transmission are unknown. Here we show that A/Anhui/1/2013(H7N9) influenza virus infection of chickens (natural hosts) is asymptomatic and that it generates a high genetic diversity. In contrast, diversity is tightly restricted in infected ferrets, limiting further adaptation to a fully transmissible form. Airborne transmission in ferrets is accompanied by the mutations in PB1, NP and NA genes that reduce viral polymerase and neuraminidase activity. Therefore, while A(H7N9) virus can infect mammals, further adaptation appears to incur a fitness cost. Our results reveal that a tight genetic bottleneck during avian-to-mammalian transmission is a limiting factor in A(H7N9) influenza virus adaptation to mammals. This previously unrecognized biological mechanism limiting species jumps provides a measure of adaptive potential and may serve as a risk assessment tool for pandemic preparedness.

Ducks are the natural host and reservoir of influenza A virus (IAV), and as such are permissive to viral replication while being unharmed by most strains. It is not known which mechanisms of viral control are globally regulated during infection, and which are specific to tissues during infection. Here we compare transcript expression from tissues from Pekin ducks infected with a recombinant H5N1 strain A/Vietnam 1203/04 (VN1203) or an H5N2 strain A/British Columbia 500/05 using RNA-sequencing analysis and aligning reads to the NCBI assembly ZJU1.0 of the domestic duck (Anas platyrhynchos) genome. Highly pathogenic VN1203 replicated in lungs and showed systemic dissemination, while BC500, like most low pathogenic strains, replicated in the intestines. VN1203 infection induced robust differential expression of genes all three days post infection, while BC500 induced the greatest number of differentially expressed genes on day 2 post infection. While there were many genes globally upregulated in response to either VN1203 or BC500, tissue specific gene expression differences were observed. Lungs of ducks infected with VN1203 and intestines of birds infected with BC500, tissues important in influenza replication, showed highest upregulation of pattern recognition receptors and interferon stimulated genes early in the response. These tissues also appear to have specific downregulation of inflammatory components, with downregulation of distinct sets of proinflammatory cytokines in lung, and downregulation of key components of leukocyte recruitment and complement pathways in intestine. Our results suggest that global and tissue specific regulation patterns help the duck control viral replication as well as limit some inflammatory responses in tissues involved in replication to avoid damage.

Understanding the evolutionary adaptations that enable avian influenza viruses to transmit in mammalian hosts could allow better detection of zoonotic viruses with pandemic potential. We applied ancestral sequence reconstruction to gain viruses representing different adaptive stages of the European avian-like (EA) H1N1 swine influenza virus as it transitioned from avian to swine hosts since 1979. Ancestral viruses representing the avian-like precursor virus and EA swine influenza viruses from 1979-1983, 1984-1987 and 1988-1992 were reconstructed and characterized. Glycan-binding analyses showed stepwise changes in the haemagglutinin receptor-binding specificity of the EA swine influenza viruses-that is, from recognition of both α2,3- and α2,6-linked sialosides to recognition of α2,6-linked sialosides only; however, efficient transmission in piglets was enabled by adaptive changes in the viral polymerase protein and nucleoprotein, which have been fixed since 1983. PB1-Q621R and NP-R351K increased viral replication and transmission in piglets when introduced into the 1979-1983 ancestral virus that lacked efficient transmissibility. The stepwise adaptation of an avian influenza virus to a mammalian host suggests that there may be opportunities to intervene and prevent interspecies jumps through strategic coordination of surveillance and risk assessment activities.