Measurement of HIV DNA-bearing cells in cerebrospinal fluid (CSF) is challenging because few cells are present. We present a novel application of the sensitive droplet digital (dd)PCR in this context.

The RV144 clinical trial showed the partial efficacy of a vaccine regimen with an estimated vaccine efficacy (VE) of 31% for protecting low-risk Thai volunteers against acquisition of HIV-1. The impact of vaccine-induced immune responses can be investigated through sieve analysis of HIV-1 breakthrough infections (infected vaccine and placebo recipients). A V1/V2-targeted comparison of the genomes of HIV-1 breakthrough viruses identified two V2 amino acid sites that differed between the vaccine and placebo groups. Here we extended the V1/V2 analysis to the entire HIV-1 genome using an array of methods based on individual sites, k-mers and genes/proteins. We identified 56 amino acid sites or "signatures" and 119 k-mers that differed between the vaccine and placebo groups. Of those, 19 sites and 38 k-mers were located in the regions comprising the RV144 vaccine (Env-gp120, Gag, and Pro). The nine signature sites in Env-gp120 were significantly enriched for known antibody-associated sites (p = 0.0021). In particular, site 317 in the third variable loop (V3) overlapped with a hotspot of antibody recognition, and sites 369 and 424 were linked to CD4 binding site neutralization. The identified signature sites significantly covaried with other sites across the genome (mean = 32.1) more than did non-signature sites (mean = 0.9) (p < 0.0001), suggesting functional and/or structural relevance of the signature sites. Since signature sites were not preferentially restricted to the vaccine immunogens and because most of the associations were insignificant following correction for multiple testing, we predict that few of the genetic differences are strongly linked to the RV144 vaccine-induced immune pressure. In addition to presenting results of the first complete-genome analysis of the breakthrough infections in the RV144 trial, this work describes a set of statistical methods and tools applicable to analysis of breakthrough infection genomes in general vaccine efficacy trials for diverse pathogens.

Most HIV-1-infected individuals with virological failure on a pharmacologically-boosted protease inhibitor (PI) regimen do not develop PI-resistance protease mutations. One proposed explanation is that HIV-1 gag or gp41 cytoplasmic domain mutations might also reduce PI susceptibility. In a recent study of paired gag and gp41 sequences from individuals with virological failure on a PI regimen, we did not identify PI-selected mutations and concluded that if such mutations existed, larger numbers of paired sequences from multiple studies would be needed for their identification. In this study, we generated site-specific amino acid profiles using gag and gp41 published sequences from 5,338 and 4,242 ART-naïve individuals, respectively, to assist researchers identify unusual mutations arising during therapy and to provide scripts for performing established and novel maximal likelihood estimates of dN/dS substitution rates in paired sequences. The pipelines used to generate the curated sequences, amino acid profiles, and dN/dS analyses will facilitate the application of consistent methods to paired gag and gp41 sequence datasets and expedite the identification of potential sites under PI-selection pressure.

For investigations of human B-cell receptor (BCR) repertoires, we have developed a protocol for large-scale surveys of human antibody heavy chain (VH) rearrangements. Here we study IgA repertoires, as more IgA antibodies are synthesized in the human body on a daily level than all other isotypes combined. In fact, IgA is secreted at all mucosal surfaces, and it is also secreted in the perspiration that coats our cutaneous surfaces. In these studies we can characterize the IgA clonal diversity of B-cell populations obtained from any donor. To recover representative repertoire libraries, we make our libraries from antibody gene transcript templates (i.e., cDNA), as these are closer reflections of the immune repertoire expressed at the antibody protein level. To avoid biases potentially introduced by upstream oligonucleotide primers that hybridize to variable region framework regions, our approach also uses rapid amplification of cDNA ends (RACE) of antibody transcripts. For exploration of human IgA responses, we have designed a duplexing antisense constant region primer that efficiently amplifies, side-by-side, heavy chain transcripts of both the IgA1 and IgA2 subclasses. By these methods we have begun to define the molecular differences in the IgA1 and IgA2 responses occurring simultaneously in different donors. These methods will be used to investigate the effects of microbial virulence factors on host defenses, during autoimmune responses, and in B-cell malignancies.

Viral suppressors of RNAi (VSRs) are proteins that actively inhibit the antiviral RNA interference (RNAi) immune response, providing an immune evasion route for viruses. It has been hypothesized that VSRs are engaged in a molecular 'arms race' with RNAi pathway genes. Two lines of evidence support this. First, VSRs from plant viruses display high sequence diversity, and are frequently gained and lost over evolutionary time scales. Second, Drosophila antiviral RNAi genes show high rates of adaptive evolution. Here, we investigate whether VSRs diversify faster than other genes and, if so, whether this is a result of positive selection, as might be expected in an arms race. By analysis of 12 plant RNA viruses, we show that the relative rate of protein evolution is higher for VSRs than for other genes, but that this is not attributable to pervasive positive selection. We argue that, because evolutionary time scales are extremely different for viruses and eukaryotes, it is improbable that viral adaptation (as measured by the ratio of non-synonymous to synonymous change) will be dominated by one-to-one coevolution with eukaryotes. Instead, for plant virus VSRs, we find strong evidence of episodic selection--diversifying selection that acts on a subset of lineages--which might be attributable to frequent shifts between different host genotypes or species.

Codon volatility is defined as the proportion of a codon's point-mutation neighbors that encode different amino acids. The cumulative volatility of a gene in relation to its associated genome was recently reported to be an indicator of selection pressure. We used this approach to measure selection on all available full-length HIV-1 subtype B genomes in the Los Alamos HIV Sequence Database, and compared these estimates against those obtained via established likelihood- and distance-based comparative methods. Volatility failed to correlate with the results of any of the comparative methods demonstrating that it is not a reliable indicator of selection pressure.

The lack of an identifiable intermediate host species for the proximal animal ancestor of SARS-CoV-2, and the large geographical distance between Wuhan and where the closest evolutionary related coronaviruses circulating in horseshoe bats (members of the Sarbecovirus subgenus) have been identified, is fueling speculation on the natural origins of SARS-CoV-2. We performed a comprehensive phylogenetic study on SARS-CoV-2 and all the related bat and pangolin sarbecoviruses sampled so far. Determining the likely recombination events reveals a highly reticulate evolutionary history within this group of coronaviruses. Distribution of the inferred recombination events is nonrandom with evidence that Spike, the main target for humoral immunity, is beside a recombination hotspot likely driving antigenic shift events in the ancestry of bat sarbecoviruses. Coupled with the geographic ranges of their hosts and the sampling locations, across southern China, and into Southeast Asia, we confirm that horseshoe bats, Rhinolophus, are the likely reservoir species for the SARS-CoV-2 progenitor. By tracing the recombinant sequence patterns, we conclude that there has been relatively recent geographic movement and cocirculation of these viruses' ancestors, extending across their bat host ranges in China and Southeast Asia over the last 100 years. We confirm that a direct proximal ancestor to SARS-CoV-2 has not yet been sampled, since the closest known relatives collected in Yunnan shared a common ancestor with SARS-CoV-2 approximately 40 years ago. Our analysis highlights the need for dramatically more wildlife sampling to: 1) pinpoint the exact origins of SARS-CoV-2's animal progenitor, 2) the intermediate species that facilitated transmission from bats to humans (if there is one), and 3) survey the extent of the diversity in the related sarbecoviruses' phylogeny that present high risk for future spillovers.

Despite many attempts to introduce evolutionary models that permit substitutions to instantly alter more than one nucleotide in a codon, the prevailing wisdom remains that such changes are rare and generally negligible or are reflective of non-biological artifacts, such as alignment errors. Codon models continue to posit that only single nucleotide change have non-zero rates. Here, we develop and test a simple hierarchy of codon-substitution models with non-zero evolutionary rates for only one-nucleotide (1H), one- and two-nucleotide (2H), or any (3H) codon substitutions. Using over 42, 000 empirical alignments, we find widespread statistical support for multiple hits: 61% of alignments prefer models with 2H allowed, and 23%-with 3H allowed. Analyses of simulated data suggest that these results are not likely to be due to simple artifacts such as model misspecification or alignment errors. Further modeling reveals that synonymous codon island jumping among codons encoding serine, especially along short branches, contributes significantly to this 3H signal. While serine codons were prominently involved in multiple-hit substitutions, there were other common exchanges contributing to better model fit. It appears that a small subset of sites in most alignments have unusual evolutionary dynamics not well explained by existing model formalisms, and that commonly estimated quantities, such as dN/dS ratios may be biased by model misspecification. Our findings highlight the need for continued evaluation of assumptions underlying workhorse evolutionary models and subsequent evolutionary inference techniques. We provide a software implementation for evolutionary biologists to assess the potential impact of extra base hits in their data in the HyPhy package and in the Datamonkey.org server.

Our evolutionary and structural analyses revealed that the severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS) coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) spike gene is a complex mosaic resulting from several recombination events. Additionally, the fixation of variants has mainly been driven by purifying selection, suggesting the presence of conserved structural features. Our dynamic simulations identified two main long-range covariant dynamic movements of the novel glycoprotein, and showed that, as a result of the evolutionary duality, they are preserved. The first movement involves the receptor binding domain with the N-terminal domain and the C-terminal domain 2 and is maintained across human, bat and pangolin coronaviruses. The second is a complex network of long-range dynamics specific to SARS-CoV-2 involving the novel PRRA and the conserved KR*SF cleavage sites, as well as conserved segments in C-terminal domain 3. These movements, essential for host cell binding, are maintained by hinges conserved across human, bat, and pangolin coronaviruses glycoproteins. The hinges, located around Threonine 333 and Proline 527 within the N-terminal domain and C-terminal domain 2, represent candidate targets for the future development of novel pan-coronavirus inhibitors. In summary, we show that while recombination created a new configuration that increased the covariant dynamic movements of the SARS-CoV-2 glycoprotein, negative selection preserved its inter-domain structure throughout evolution in different hosts and inter-species transmissions.

The past several months have witnessed the emergence of SARS-CoV-2 variants with novel spike protein mutations that are influencing the epidemiological and clinical aspects of the COVID-19 pandemic. These variants can increase rates of virus transmission and/or increase the risk of reinfection and reduce the protection afforded by neutralizing monoclonal antibodies and vaccination. These variants can therefore enable SARS-CoV-2 to continue its spread in the face of rising population immunity while maintaining or increasing its replication fitness. The identification of four rapidly expanding virus lineages since December 2020, designated variants of concern, has ushered in a new stage of the pandemic. The four variants of concern, the Alpha variant (originally identified in the UK), the Beta variant (originally identified in South Africa), the Gamma variant (originally identified in Brazil) and the Delta variant (originally identified in India), share several mutations with one another as well as with an increasing number of other recently identified SARS-CoV-2 variants. Collectively, these SARS-CoV-2 variants complicate the COVID-19 research agenda and necessitate additional avenues of laboratory, epidemiological and clinical research.

Lymphoid tissue is a key reservoir established by HIV-1 during acute infection. It is a site associated with viral production, storage of viral particles in immune complexes, and viral persistence. Although combinations of antiretroviral drugs usually suppress viral replication and reduce viral RNA to undetectable levels in blood, it is unclear whether treatment fully suppresses viral replication in lymphoid tissue reservoirs. Here we show that virus evolution and trafficking between tissue compartments continues in patients with undetectable levels of virus in their bloodstream. We present a spatial and dynamic model of persistent viral replication and spread that indicates why the development of drug resistance is not a foregone conclusion under conditions in which drug concentrations are insufficient to completely block virus replication. These data provide new insights into the evolutionary and infection dynamics of the virus population within the host, revealing that HIV-1 can continue to replicate and replenish the viral reservoir despite potent antiretroviral therapy.

Due to the stringent population bottleneck that occurs during sexual HIV-1 transmission, systemic infection is typically established by a limited number of founder viruses. Elucidation of the precise forces influencing the selection of founder viruses may reveal key vulnerabilities that could aid in the development of a vaccine or other clinical interventions. Here, we utilize deep sequencing data and apply a genetic distance-based method to investigate whether the mode of sexual transmission shapes the nascent founder viral genome. Analysis of 74 acute and early HIV-1 infected subjects revealed that 83% of men who have sex with men (MSM) exhibit a single founder virus, levels similar to those previously observed in heterosexual (HSX) transmission. In a metadata analysis of a total of 354 subjects, including HSX, MSM and injecting drug users (IDU), we also observed no significant differences in the frequency of single founder virus infections between HSX and MSM transmissions. However, comparison of HIV-1 envelope sequences revealed that HSX founder viruses exhibited a greater number of codon sites under positive selection, as well as stronger transmission indices possibly reflective of higher fitness variants. Moreover, specific genetic "signatures" within MSM and HSX founder viruses were identified, with single polymorphisms within gp41 enriched among HSX viruses while more complex patterns, including clustered polymorphisms surrounding the CD4 binding site, were enriched in MSM viruses. While our findings do not support an influence of the mode of sexual transmission on the number of founder viruses, they do demonstrate that there are marked differences in the selection bottleneck that can significantly shape their genetic composition. This study illustrates the complex dynamics of the transmission bottleneck and reveals that distinct genetic bottleneck processes exist dependent upon the mode of HIV-1 transmission.

Characterize intra-individual HIV-1 subtype B pol evolution in antiretroviral naive individuals.

Identifying the germline genes involved in immunoglobulin rearrangements is an essential first step in the analysis of antibody repertoires. Based on our prior work in analysing diverse recombinant viruses, we present IgSCUEAL (Immunoglobulin Subtype Classification Using Evolutionary ALgorithms), a phylogenetic approach to assign V and J regions of immunoglobulin sequences to their corresponding germline alleles, with D regions assigned using a simple pairwise alignment algorithm. We also develop an interactive web application for viewing the results, allowing the user to explore the frequency distribution of sequence assignments and CDR3 region length statistics, which is useful for summarizing repertoires, as well as a detailed viewer of rearrangements and region alignments for individual query sequences. We demonstrate the accuracy and utility of our method compared with sequence similarity-based approaches and other non-phylogenetic model-based approaches, using both simulated data and a set of evaluation datasets of human immunoglobulin heavy chain sequences. IgSCUEAL demonstrates the highest accuracy of V and J assignment amongst existing approaches, even when the reassorted sequence is highly mutated, and can successfully cluster sequences on the basis of shared V/J germline alleles.

We introduce LEISR (Likehood Estimation of Individual Site Rates, pronounced "laser"), a tool to infer relative evolutionary rates from protein and nucleotide data, implemented in HyPhy. LEISR is based on the popular Rate4Site (Pupko et al., 2002) approach for inferring relative site-wise evolutionary rates, primarily from protein data. We extend the original method for more general use in several key ways: (i) we increase the support for nucleotide data with additional models, (ii) we allow for datasets of arbitrary size, (iii) we support analysis of site-partitioned datasets to correct for the presence of recombination breakpoints, (iv) we produce rate estimates at all sites rather than at just a subset of sites, and (v) we implemented LEISR as MPI-enabled to support rapid, high-throughput analysis. LEISR is available in HyPhy starting with version 2.3.8, and it is accessible as an option in the HyPhy analysis menu ("Relative evolutionary rate inference"), which calls the HyPhy batchfile LEISR.bf.

Comparative sequence analyses, including such fundamental bioinformatics techniques as similarity searching, sequence alignment and phylogenetic inference, have become a mainstay for researchers studying type 1 Human Immunodeficiency Virus (HIV-1) genome structure and evolution. Implicit in comparative analyses is an underlying model of evolution, and the chosen model can significantly affect the results. In general, evolutionary models describe the probabilities of replacing one amino acid character with another over a period of time. Most widely used evolutionary models for protein sequences have been derived from curated alignments of hundreds of proteins, usually based on mammalian genomes. It is unclear to what extent these empirical models are generalizable to a very different organism, such as HIV-1-the most extensively sequenced organism in existence. We developed a maximum likelihood model fitting procedure to a collection of HIV-1 alignments sampled from different viral genes, and inferred two empirical substitution models, suitable for describing between-and within-host evolution. Our procedure pools the information from multiple sequence alignments, and provided software implementation can be run efficiently in parallel on a computer cluster. We describe how the inferred substitution models can be used to generate scoring matrices suitable for alignment and similarity searches. Our models had a consistently superior fit relative to the best existing models and to parameter-rich data-driven models when benchmarked on independent HIV-1 alignments, demonstrating evolutionary biases in amino-acid substitution that are unique to HIV, and that are not captured by the existing models. The scoring matrices derived from the models showed a marked difference from common amino-acid scoring matrices. The use of an appropriate evolutionary model recovered a known viral transmission history, whereas a poorly chosen model introduced phylogenetic error. We argue that our model derivation procedure is immediately applicable to other organisms with extensive sequence data available, such as Hepatitis C and Influenza A viruses.

Upon HIV transmission, some patients develop AIDS in only a few months, while others remain disease free for 20 or more years. This variation in the rate of disease progression is poorly understood and has been attributed to host genetics, host immune responses, co-infection, viral genetics, and adaptation. Here, we develop a new "relaxed-clock" phylogenetic method to estimate absolute rates of synonymous and nonsynonymous substitution through time. We identify an unexpected association between the synonymous substitution rate of HIV and disease progression parameters. Since immune activation is the major determinant of HIV disease progression, we propose that this process can also determine viral generation times, by creating favourable conditions for HIV replication. These conclusions may apply more generally to HIV evolution, since we also observed an overall low synonymous substitution rate for HIV-2, which is known to be less pathogenic than HIV-1 and capable of tempering the detrimental effects of immune activation. Humoral immune responses, on the other hand, are the major determinant of nonsynonymous rate changes through time in the envelope gene, and our relaxed-clock estimates support a decrease in selective pressure as a consequence of immune system collapse.

Noroviruses are the most common cause of viral gastroenteritis. An increase in the number of globally reported norovirus outbreaks was seen the past decade, especially for outbreaks caused by successive genogroup II genotype 4 (GII.4) variants. Whether this observed increase was due to an upswing in the number of infections, or to a surveillance artifact caused by heightened awareness and concomitant improved reporting, remained unclear. Therefore, we set out to study the population structure and changes thereof of GII.4 strains detected through systematic outbreak surveillance since the early 1990s. We collected 1383 partial polymerase and 194 full capsid GII.4 sequences. A Bayesian MCMC coalescent analysis revealed an increase in the number of GII.4 infections during the last decade. The GII.4 strains included in our analyses evolved at a rate of 4.3-9.0x10(-3) mutations per site per year, and share a most recent common ancestor in the early 1980s. Determinants of adaptation in the capsid protein were studied using different maximum likelihood approaches to identify sites subject to diversifying or directional selection and sites that co-evolved. While a number of the computationally determined adaptively evolving sites were on the surface of the capsid and possible subject to immune selection, we also detected sites that were subject to constrained or compensatory evolution due to secondary RNA structures, relevant in virus-replication. We highlight codons that may prove useful in identifying emerging novel variants, and, using these, indicate that the novel 2008 variant is more likely to cause a future epidemic than the 2007 variant. While norovirus infections are generally mild and self-limiting, more severe outcomes of infection frequently occur in elderly and immunocompromized people, and no treatment is available. The observed pattern of continually emerging novel variants of GII.4, causing elevated numbers of infections, is therefore a cause for concern.

A number of evolutionary hypotheses can be tested by comparing selective pressures among sets of branches in a phylogenetic tree. When the question of interest is to identify specific sites within genes that may be evolving differently, a common approach is to perform separate analyses on subsets of sequences and compare parameter estimates in a post hoc fashion. This approach is statistically suboptimal and not always applicable. Here, we develop a simple extension of a popular fixed effects likelihood method in the context of codon-based evolutionary phylogenetic maximum likelihood testing, Contrast-FEL. It is suitable for identifying individual alignment sites where any among the K≥2 sets of branches in a phylogenetic tree have detectably different ω ratios, indicative of different selective regimes. Using extensive simulations, we show that Contrast-FEL delivers good power, exceeding 90% for sufficiently large differences, while maintaining tight control over false positive rates, when the model is correctly specified. We conclude by applying Contrast-FEL to data from five previously published studies spanning a diverse range of organisms and focusing on different evolutionary questions.

Antiretroviral therapy-naive HIV-1 infected infants experience poor viral containment and rapid disease progression compared to adults. Viral factors (e.g. transmitted cytotoxic T- lymphocyte (CTL) escape mutations) or infant factors (e.g. reduced CTL functional capacity) may explain this observation. We assessed CTL functionality by analysing selection in CTL-targeted HIV-1 epitopes following perinatal infection. HIV-1 gag, pol and nef sequences were generated from a historical repository of longitudinal specimens from 19 vertically infected infants. Evolutionary rate and selection were estimated for each gene and in CTL-restricted and non-restricted epitopes. Evolutionary rate was higher in nef and gag vs. pol, and lower in infants with non-severe immunosuppression vs. severe immunosuppression across gag and nef. Selection pressure was stronger in infants with non-severe immunosuppression vs. severe immunosuppression across gag. The analysis also showed that infants with non-severe immunosuppression had stronger selection in CTL-restricted vs. non-restricted epitopes in gag and nef. Evidence of stronger CTL selection was absent in infants with severe immunosuppression. These data indicate that infant CTLs can exert selection pressure on gag and nef epitopes in early infection and that stronger selection across CTL epitopes is associated with favourable clinical outcomes. These results have implications for the development of paediatric HIV-1 vaccines.