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Avian influenza (AI) is a highly contagious viral disease affecting poultry and wild water birds, posing significant global challenges due to its high mortality rates and economic impacts. Highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) outbreaks, particularly those caused by H5N1 and its variants, have surged since 1959. The HPAI H5N1 clade 2.3.4.4b viruses have notably expanded their geographical reach, affecting numerous countries, diverse avian species, and now mammals. Using an ecological niche modelling approach, this study aims to elucidate the environmental factors associated with increased HPAI H5 cases since 2020, investigate potential shifts in ecological niches, and predict new areas suitable for viral circulation. We developed ecological niche models for HPAI cases in wild and domestic birds across two distinct periods: 2015-2020 and 2020-2022. Key environmental predictors include chicken and duck population density, human density, distance to water bodies, and land cover variables. Post-2020, we observe increased relative influence of predictors such as intensive chicken population density and cultivated vegetation. Risk maps reveal notable ecological suitability for HPAI H5 circulation in Europe, Asia, and the Americas, with significant expansions of at-risk areas post-2020. Wild bird H5 occurrences appear primarily correlated with urban areas and open water regions. Our analyses also highlight a potential shift in affected wild bird species diversity, with more avian species, particularly sea birds, impacted post-2020. Overall, these results further contribute to the understanding of HPAI epidemiology and identify regions where surveillance and control measures should be prioritised.
Pubmed ID: 41603362
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One of the main institutions of the European Union, its job is to represent and uphold the interests of the EU as a whole. It drafts proposals for new European laws. It manages the day-to-day business of implementing EU policies and spending EU funds. The 28 Commissioners, one from each EU member country, provide the Commission''s political leadership during their 5-year term. Each Commissioner is assigned responsibility for specific policy areas by the President. The Commission oversees and implements EU policies by: * proposing new laws to Parliament and the Council * managing the EU''s budget and allocating funding * enforcing EU law (together with the Court of Justice) * representing the EU internationally, for example, by negotiating agreements between the EU and other countries. The Commission is based in Brussels and Luxembourg and has offices (representations) in every EU country and delegations in capital cities around the world.
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