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Severity prediction of COVID-19 remains one of the major clinical challenges for the ongoing pandemic. Here, we have recruited a 144 COVID-19 patient cohort, resulting in a data matrix containing 3,065 readings for 124 types of measurements over 52 days. A machine learning model was established to predict the disease progression based on the cohort consisting of training, validation, and internal test sets. A panel of eleven routine clinical factors constructed a classifier for COVID-19 severity prediction, achieving accuracy of over 98% in the discovery set. Validation of the model in an independent cohort containing 25 patients achieved accuracy of 80%. The overall sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value (PPV), and negative predictive value (NPV) were 0.70, 0.99, 0.93, and 0.93, respectively. Our model captured predictive dynamics of lactate dehydrogenase (LDH) and creatine kinase (CK) while their levels were in the normal range. This model is accessible at https://www.guomics.com/covidAI/ for research purpose.
Pubmed ID: 34188785
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scikit-learn: machine learning in Python
View all literature mentionsSoftware package used for interactive, or batched, statistical analysis in social science, health sciences and marketing. Software platform offers advanced statistical analysis, a library of machine-learning algorithms, text analysis, open-source extensibility, integration with big data and deployment into applications.Versions that were produced by SPSS Inc. before the IBM acquisition (Versions 18 and earlier) would be given origin or publisher of SPSS Inc. in Chicago.
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