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Adequate life-expectancy reconstruction for adult human mortality data.

László Németh | Trifon I Missov
PloS one | 2018

Mortality information of populations is aggregated in life tables that serve as a basis for calculation of life expectancy and various life disparity measures. Conventional life-table methods address right-censoring inadequately by assuming a constant hazard in the last open-ended age group. As a result, life expectancy can be substantially distorted, especially in the case when the last age group in a life table contains a large proportion of the population. Previous research suggests addressing censoring in a gamma-Gompertz-Makeham model setting as this framework incorporates all major features of adult mortality. In this article, we quantify the difference between gamma-Gompertz-Makeham life expectancy values and those published in the largest publicly available high-quality life-table databases for human populations, drawing attention to populations for which life expectancy values should be reconsidered. We also advocate the use of gamma-Gompertz-Makeham life expectancy for three reasons. First, model-based life-expectancy calculation successfully handles the problem of data quality or availability, resulting in severe censoring due to the unification of a substantial number of deaths in the last open-end age group. Second, model-based life expectancies are preferable in the case of data scarcity, i.e. when data contain numerous age groups with zero death counts: here, we provide an example of hunter-gatherer populations. Third, gamma-Gompertz-Makeham-based life expectancy values are almost identical to the ones provided by the major high-quality human mortality databases that use more complicated procedures. Applying a gamma-Gompertz-Makeham model to adult mortality data can be used to revise life-expectancy trends for historical populations that usually serve as input for mortality forecasts.

Pubmed ID: 29864166

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This is a list of tools and resources that we have found mentioned in this publication.


Human Mortality Database (tool)

RRID:SCR_002370

A database providing detailed mortality and population data to those interested in the history of human longevity. For each country, the database includes calculated death rates and life tables by age, time, and sex, along with all of the raw data (vital statistics, census counts, population estimates) used in computing these quantities. Data are presented in a variety of formats with regard to age groups and time periods. The main goal of the database is to document the longevity revolution of the modern era and to facilitate research into its causes and consequences. New data series is continually added to this collection. However, the database is limited by design to populations where death registration and census data are virtually complete, since this type of information is required for the uniform method used to reconstruct historical data series. As a result, the countries and areas included are relatively wealthy and for the most part highly industrialized. The database replaces an earlier NIA-funded project, known as the Berkeley Mortality Database. * Dates of Study: 1751-present * Study Features: Longitudinal, International * Sample Size: 37 countries or areas

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Human Life-Table Database (tool)

RRID:SCR_006248

A collection of population life tables covering a multitude of countries and many years. Most of the HLD life tables are life tables for national populations, which have been officially published by national statistical offices. Some of the HLD life tables refer to certain regional or ethnic sub-populations within countries. Parts of the HLD life tables are non-official life tables produced by researchers. Life tables describe the extent to which a generation of people (i.e. life table cohort) dies off with age. Life tables are the most ancient and important tool in demography. They are widely used for descriptive and analytical purposes in demography, public health, epidemiology, population geography, biology and many other branches of science. HLD includes the following types of data: * complete life tables in text format; * abridged life tables in text format; * references to statistical publications and other data sources; * scanned copies of the original life tables as they were published. Three scientific institutions are jointly developing the HLD: the Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research (MPIDR) in Rostock, Germany, the Department of Demography at the University of California at Berkeley, USA and the Institut national d''��tudes d��mographiques (INED) in Paris, France. The MPIDR is responsible for maintaining the database.

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