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The investigation of migratory patterns during the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic before spring 2020 border closures in Europe is a crucial first step toward an in-depth evaluation of border closure policies. Here we analyze viral genome sequences using a phylodynamic model with geographic structure to estimate the origin and spread of SARS-CoV-2 in Europe prior to border closures. Based on SARS-CoV-2 genomes, we reconstruct a partial transmission tree of the early pandemic and coinfer the geographic location of ancestral lineages as well as the number of migration events into and between European regions. We find that the predominant lineage spreading in Europe during this time has a most recent common ancestor in Italy and was probably seeded by a transmission event in either Hubei, China or Germany. We do not find evidence for preferential migration paths from Hubei into different European regions or from each European region to the others. Sustained local transmission is first evident in Italy and then shortly thereafter in the other European regions considered. Before the first border closures in Europe, we estimate that the rate of occurrence of new cases from within-country transmission was within the bounds of the estimated rate of new cases from migration. In summary, our analysis offers a view on the early state of the epidemic in Europe and on migration patterns of the virus before border closures. This information will enable further study of the necessity and timeliness of border closures.
Pubmed ID: 33571105
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NIH genetic sequence database that provides annotated collection of all publicly available DNA sequences for almost 280 000 formally described species (Jan 2014) .These sequences are obtained primarily through submissions from individual laboratories and batch submissions from large-scale sequencing projects, including whole-genome shotgun (WGS) and environmental sampling projects. Most submissions are made using web-based BankIt or standalone Sequin programs, and GenBank staff assigns accession numbers upon data receipt. It is part of International Nucleotide Sequence Database Collaboration and daily data exchange with European Nucleotide Archive (ENA) and DNA Data Bank of Japan (DDBJ) ensures worldwide coverage. GenBank is accessible through NCBI Entrez retrieval system, which integrates data from major DNA and protein sequence databases along with taxonomy, genome, mapping, protein structure and domain information, and biomedical journal literature via PubMed. BLAST provides sequence similarity searches of GenBank and other sequence databases. Complete bimonthly releases and daily updates of GenBank database are available by FTP.
View all literature mentionsPortal to share hCoV-19 genome sequences. Collection of genome sequences and related clinical and epidemiological data associated with coronavirus hCoV-19. Global repository of SARS-CoV-2 genomes. Initiative involves public-private-partnerships between Freunde of GISAID and governments of Federal Republic of Germany, Singapore and United States of America, with support from private and corporate philanthropy.International database of hCoV-19 genome sequences and related clinical and epidemiological data. Resource for influenza and hCoV-19 data.
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