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Ancestral state reconstruction models use genetic data to characterize a group of organisms' common ancestor. These models have been applied to salmonellosis outbreaks to estimate the number of transmissions between different animal species that share similar geographical locations, with animal host as the state. However, as far as we are aware, no studies have validated these models for outbreak analysis. In this study, salmonellosis outbreaks were simulated using a stochastic Susceptible-Infected-Recovered model, and the host population and transmission parameters of these simulated outbreaks were estimated using Bayesian ancestral state reconstruction models (discrete trait analysis (DTA) and structured coalescent (SC)). These models were unable to accurately estimate the number of transmissions between the host populations or the amount of time spent in each host population. The DTA model was inaccurate because it assumed the number of isolates sampled from each host population was proportional to the number of individuals infected within each host population. The SC model was inaccurate possibly because it assumed that each host population's effective population size was constant over the course of the simulated outbreaks. This study highlights the need for phylodynamic models that can take into consideration factors that influence the characteristics and behavior of outbreaks, e.g. changing effective population sizes, variation in infectious periods, intra-population transmissions, and disproportionate sampling of infected individuals.
Pubmed ID: 31329588
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View all literature mentionsA cross-platform software program for Bayesian MCMC analysis of molecular sequences. It is entirely orientated towards rooted, time-measured phylogenies inferred using strict or relaxed molecular clock models. It can be used as a method of reconstructing phylogenies but is also a framework for testing evolutionary hypotheses without conditioning on a single tree topology. BEAST uses MCMC to average over tree space, so that each tree is weighted proportional to its posterior probability. We include a simple to use user-interface program for setting up standard analyses and a suit of programs for analysing the results.
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