Sham surgery (placebo surgery) is an intervention that omits the step thought to be therapeutically necessary. In surgical clinical trials, sham surgery serves an analogous purpose to placebo drugs, neutralizing biases such as the placebo effect. A critical review was performed to study the statistical relevance of the clinical trials about sham surgery in the light of potential confounding factors.

Isolated pancreatic islets are valuable resources for a wide range of research, including cell replacement studies and cell-based platforms for diabetes drug discovery and disease modeling. Islet isolation is a complex and stepwise procedure aiming to obtain pure, viable, and functional islets for in vitro and in vivo studies. It should be noted that differences in rodent strains, gender, weight, and density gradients may affect the isolated islet's properties. We evaluated the variables affecting the rat islet isolation procedure to reach the maximum islet yield and functionality, which would be critical for further studies on islet regenerative biology.

Epidemiology seeks to determine the causal effects of exposures on outcomes related to the health and wellbeing of populations. Observational studies, one of the most commonly used designs in epidemiology, can be biased due to confounding and reverse causation, which makes it difficult to establish causal relationships. In recent times, genetically informed methods, like Mendelian randomization (MR), have been developed in an attempt to overcome these disadvantages. MR relies on the association of genetic variants with outcomes of interest, where the genetic variants are proxies or instruments for modifiable exposures. Because genotypes are sorted independently and at random at the time of conception, they are less prone to confounding and reverse causation. Implementation of MR depends on, among other things, a strong association of the genetic variants with the exposure, which has usually been defined via genome-wide association studies (GWAS). Because GWAS have been most often carried out in European populations, the limited identification of strong instruments in other populations poses a major problem for the application of MR in Latin America. We suggest potential solutions that can be realized with the resources at hand and others that will have to wait for increased funding and access to technology.

Brain lesion localization in multiple sclerosis (MS) is thought to be associated with the type and severity of adverse health effects. However, several factors hinder statistical analyses of such associations using large MRI datasets: 1) spatial registration algorithms developed for healthy individuals may be less effective on diseased brains and lead to different spatial distributions of lesions; 2) interpretation of results requires the careful selection of confounders; and 3) most approaches have focused on voxel-wise regression approaches. In this paper, we evaluated the performance of five registration algorithms and observed that conclusions regarding lesion localization can vary substantially with the choice of registration algorithm. Methods for dealing with confounding factors due to differences in disease duration and local lesion volume are introduced. Voxel-wise regression is then extended by the introduction of a metric that measures the distance between a patient-specific lesion mask and the population prevalence map.

Limited information is available regarding stroke-related out-of-hospital cardiac arrest (OHCA). We aimed to assess the clinical characteristics of stroke-related OHCA and to identify the factors associated with patient outcomes.We conducted a nationwide population-based study of adult OHCA patients in Japan from January 1, 2006 to December 31, 2009. We examined the epidemiology, risk factors, and outcomes of stroke-related OHCA compared with cardiogenic OHCA. The primary outcome was neurologically favorable survival.Of the 243,140 eligible patients, 18,682 (7.7%) were diagnosed with stroke-related OHCA. Compared to OHCA with a presumed cardiac etiology, stroke-related OHCA patients had a greater chance of prehospital return of spontaneous circulation (ROSC) (9.9% vs 5.9%, P < 0.0001) but a reduced chance of 1-month survival (3.6% vs 4.9%, P < 0.0001) or favorable neurological outcomes (1.2% vs 2.6%, P < 0.0001). After adjusting for a variety of confounding factors, the prehospital ROSC rates were higher (adjusted OR 2.47, 95% confidence interval [CI] 2.34-2.62), but the neurologically favorable survival rates were lower (adjusted OR 0.66, 95%CI 0.57-0.76), among the stroke-related OHCA patients. In stroke-related OHCA cases, having a younger age, witness, and shockable 1st documented rhythm were associated with improved outcomes. Men had more favorable neurological outcomes. Seasonal or circadian factors had no critical impact on favorable neurological outcomes. Prehospital advanced life support techniques (i.e., epinephrine administration or advanced airway management) were not associated with favorable neurological outcomes.Although stroke-related OHCA had lower 1-month survival rates and poorer neurological outcomes than cardiogenic OHCA, the rates were not considered to be medically futile. Characteristically, sex differences might impact neurologically favorable survival.

It is unknown whether the association between body mass index (BMI) and chronic kidney disease (CKD) is mediated by genetic confounding or obesity-associated diabetes. We investigated the association between BMI and incident CKD in 29,136 Swedish twins with no history of CKD or diabetes, first using traditional Cox regression in a cohort design, and second controlling for shared genetic factors within twin pairs. Hazard ratios (HR) per unit increase in BMI were calculated and adjusted for age, sex, comorbidities, and lifestyle factors. We contrasted CKD risk between twins with discordant BMI and adjusted for diabetes as a time-varying covariate. During an average follow-up of 12.8 years, 1,113 (3.8%) incident CKD and 2,282 (7.8%) diabetes cases were observed. BMI was associated with CKD risk in the traditional cohort analysis (HR 1.13; 95% CI, 1.11-1.14). Effect sizes were similar in analyses clustered by twin pairs to adjust for factors shared by twins (HR 1.16; 95 CI 1.09-1.22 in same-sex fraternal twins and HR 1.17; 95% CI 1.06-1.29 in identical twins). Heavier twins had higher incidence rates of both CKD and diabetes than their leaner siblings, particularly when BMI differed by >2 kg/m2. The proportion of CKD cases attributable to BMI ≥25 kg/m2 was estimated to be 32%, with approximately 19% of those cases explained by diabetes. We conclude that a higher BMI, irrespective of genetic confounding, is associated with increased CKD risk. A large proportion of CKD cases might be prevented if the population maintained a normal BMI.

The impact of cryptic relatedness (CR) on genomic association studies is well studied and known to inflate false-positive rates as reported by several groups. In contrast, conventional epidemiological studies for environmental risks, the confounding effect of CR is still uninvestigated. In this study, we investigated the confounding effect of unadjusted CR among a rural cohort in the relationship between environmental risk factors (body mass index, smoking status, alcohol consumption) and systolic blood pressure. We applied the methods of population-based whole-genome association studies for the analysis of the genome-wide single nucleotide polymorphism data in 1622 subjects, and detected 20.2% CR in this cohort population. In the case of the sample size, approximately 1000, the ratio of CR to the population was 20.2%, the population prevalence 25%, the prevalence in the CR 26%, heritability for liability 14.3% and prevalence in the subpopulation without CR 26%, the difference of estimated regression coefficient between samples with and without CR was not significant (P-value = 0.55). On the other hand, in another case with approximately >20% heritability for liability, we showed that confounding due to CR biased the estimation of exposure effects.

Depression and anxiety may unfavorably impact on cardiac autonomic dysregulation. However, it is unclear whether this relationship results from a causal effect or may be attributable to confounding factors. We tested the relationship between depression and anxiety with heart rate (HR) and heart rate variability (HRV) across a 9-year follow-up (FU) period and investigated possible confounding by antidepressant use and genetic pleiotropy.

Spatial epidemiology is the description and analysis of geographic variations in disease with respect to demographic, environmental, behavioral, socioeconomic, genetic, and infectious risk factors. We focus on small-area analyses, encompassing disease mapping, geographic correlation studies, disease clusters, and clustering. Advances in geographic information systems, statistical methodology, and availability of high-resolution, geographically referenced health and environmental quality data have created unprecedented new opportunities to investigate environmental and other factors in explaining local geographic variations in disease. They also present new challenges. Problems include the large random component that may predominate disease rates across small areas. Though this can be dealt with appropriately using Bayesian statistics to provide smooth estimates of disease risks, sensitivity to detect areas at high risk is limited when expected numbers of cases are small. Potential biases and confounding, particularly due to socioeconomic factors, and a detailed understanding of data quality are important. Data errors can result in large apparent disease excess in a locality. Disease cluster reports often arise nonsystematically because of media, physician, or public concern. One ready means of investigating such concerns is the replication of analyses in different areas based on routine data, as is done in the United Kingdom through the Small Area Health Statistics Unit (and increasingly in other European countries, e.g., through the European Health and Environment Information System collaboration). In the future, developments in exposure modeling and mapping, enhanced study designs, and new methods of surveillance of large health databases promise to improve our ability to understand the complex relationships of environment to health.

Epigenome-wide DNA methylation analysis (EWAS) is an important approach to identify biomarkers for early disease detection and prognosis prediction, yet its results could be confounded by other factors such as cell-type heterogeneity and patient characteristics. In this study, we address the importance of confounding adjustment by examining DNA methylation patterns in cord blood exposed to severe preeclampsia (PE), a prevalent and potentially fatal pregnancy complication. Without such adjustment, a misleading global hypomethylation pattern is obtained. However, after adjusting cell type proportions and patient clinical characteristics, most of the so-called significant CpG methylation changes associated with severe PE disappear. Rather, the major effect of PE on cord blood is through the proportion changes in different cell types. These results are validated using a previously published cord blood DNA methylation dataset, where global hypomethylation pattern was also wrongfully obtained without confounding adjustment. Additionally, several cell types significantly change as gestation progress (eg. granulocyte, nRBC, CD4T, and B cells), further confirming the importance of cell type adjustment in EWAS study of cord blood tissues. Our study urges the community to perform confounding adjustments in EWAS studies, based on cell type heterogeneity and other patient characteristics.

As part of a larger investigation of cancer in Uganda, we conducted a case-control study of conjunctival squamous cell carcinoma in adults presenting at hospitals in Kampala. Participants were interviewed about social and lifestyle factors and had blood tested for antibodies to HIV, KSHV and HPV-16, -18 and -45. The odds of each factor among 60 people with conjunctival cancer was compared to that among 1214 controls with other cancer sites or types, using odds ratios, estimated with unconditional logistic regression. Conjunctival cancer was associated with HIV infection (OR 10.1, 95% confidence intervals [CI] 5.2-19.4; P<0.001), and was less common in those with a higher personal income (OR=0.4, 95% CI 0.3-0.7; P<0.001)[corrected]. The risk of conjunctival cancer increased with increasing time spent in cultivation and therefore in direct sunlight (chi2 trend=3.9, P=0.05), but decreased with decreasing age at leaving home (chi2 trend=3.9, P=0.05), perhaps reflecting less exposure to sunlight consequent to working in towns, although both results were of borderline statistical significance. To reduce confounding, sexual and reproductive variables were examined among HIV seropositive individuals only. Cases were more likely than controls to report that they had given or received gifts for sex (OR 3.5, 95% CI 1.2-10.4; P=0.03), but this may have been a chance finding as no other sexual or reproductive variable was associated with conjunctival cancer, including the number of self-reported lifetime sexual partners (P=0.4). The seroprevalence of antibodies against HPV-18 and -45 was too low to make reliable conclusions. The presence of anti-HPV-16 antibodies was not significantly associated with squamous cell carcinoma of the conjunctiva (OR 1.5, 95% CI 0.5-4.3; P=0.5) and nor were anti-KSHV antibodies (OR 0.9, 95% CI 0.4-2.1; P=0.8). The 10-fold increased risk of conjunctival cancer in HIV infected individuals is similar to results from other studies. The role of other oncogenic viral infections is unclear.

Delirium is a serious and common acute neuropsychiatric syndrome that is associated with short- and long-term adverse health outcomes. However, relatively little delirium research has been conducted in unselected populations. Epidemiologic research in such populations has the potential to resolve several questions of clinical significance in delirium. Part 1 of this article explores the importance of population selection, case-ascertainment, attrition, and confounding. Part 2 examines a specific question in delirium epidemiology: What is the relationship between delirium and trajectories of cognitive decline? This section assesses previous work through two systematic reviews and proposes a design for investigating delirium in the context of longitudinal cohort studies. Such a design requires robust links between community and hospital settings. Practical considerations for case-ascertainment in the hospital, as well as the necessary quality control of these programs, are outlined. We argue that attention to these factors is important if delirium research is to benefit fully from a population perspective.

The prevalence of vaping, also known as using e-cigarettes, vapes and vape pens, has prompted a demand for reliable, evidence-based research. However, published literature on the topic of vaping often raises concerns, characterized by serious flaws and a failure to adhere to accepted scientific methodologies. In this narrative review, we analyze popular vaping studies published in medical journals that purport to evaluate the association of vaping and smoking cessation, smoking initiation or health outcomes. We analyzed 24 included studies to identify the questions they claimed to address, stated methods, manner of implementation, discussions, and stated conclusions. After critical appraisal, we noted a multiplicity of flaws in these studies, and identified patterns as to the nature of such flaws. Many studies lacked a clear hypothesis statement: to the extent that a hypothesis could be inferred, the methods were not tailored to address the question of interest. Moreover, main outcome measures were poorly identified, and data analysis was further complicated by failure to control for confounding factors. The body of literature on "gateway" theory for the initiation of smoking was particularly unreliable. Overall, the results and discussion contained numerous unreliable assertions due to poor methods, including data collection that lacked relevance, and assertions that were unfounded. Many researchers claimed to find a causal association while not supporting such findings with meaningful data: the discussions and conclusions of such studies were, therefore, misleading. Herein, we identify the common flaws in the study design, methodology, and implementation found in published vaping studies. We present our summary recommendations for future vaping research. Our aim is to prompt future researchers to adhere to scientific methods to produce more reliable findings and conclusions in the field of vaping research.

The coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic caused by the severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) is rapidly evolving, with important cardiovascular considerations. The presence of underlying cardiovascular risk factors and established cardiovascular disease (CVD) may affect the severity and clinical management of patients with COVID-19. We conducted a review of the literature to summarize the cardiovascular pathophysiology, risk factors, clinical presentations, and treatment considerations of COVID-19 patients with underlying CVD. Angiotensin-converting enzyme 2 (ACE2) has been identified as a functional receptor for the SARS-CoV-2 virus, and it is associated with the cardiovascular system. Hypertension, diabetes, and CVD are the most common comorbidities in COVID-19 patients, and these factors have been associated with the progression and severity of COVID-19. However, elderly populations, who develop more-severe COVID-19 complications, are naturally exposed to these comorbidities, underscoring the possible confounding of age. Observational data support international cardiovascular societies' recommendations to not discontinue ACE inhibitor/angiotensin-receptor blocker therapy in patients with guideline indications for fear of the increased risk of SARS-CoV-2 infection, severe disease, or death. In addition to the cardiotoxicity of experimental antivirals and potential interactions of experimental therapies with cardiovascular drugs, several strategies for cardiovascular protection have been recommended in COVID-19 patients with underlying CVD. Troponin elevation is associated with increased risk of in-hospital mortality and adverse outcomes in patients with COVID-19. Cardiovascular care teams should have a high index of suspicion for fulminant myocarditis-like presentations being SARS-CoV-2 positive, and remain vigilant for cardiovascular complications in COVID-19 patients.

Previous studies have reported an association between sun exposure and the increased survival of patients with cutaneous melanoma (CM). The present study analyzed the association between ultraviolet (UV) light exposure and various prognostic factors in the Italian Clinical National Melanoma Registry. Clinical and sociodemographic features were collected, as well as information concerning sunbed exposure and holidays with sun exposure. Analyses were performed to investigate the association between exposure to UV and melanoma prognostic factors. Between December 2010 and December 2013, information was obtained on 2,738 melanoma patients from 38 geographically representative Italian sites. A total of 49% of the patients were >55 years old, 51% were men, 50% lived in the north of Italy and 57% possessed a high level of education (at least high school). A total of 8 patients had a family history of melanoma and 56% had a fair phenotype (Fitzpatrick skin type I or II). Of the total patients, 29% had been diagnosed with melanoma by a dermatologist; 29% of patients presented with a very thick melanoma (Breslow thickness, >2 mm) and 25% with an ulcerated melanoma. In total, 1% of patients had distant metastases and 13% exhibited lymph node involvement. Holidays with sun exposure 5 years prior to CM diagnosis were significantly associated with positive prognostic factors, including lower Breslow thickness (P<0.001) and absence of ulceration (P=0.009), following multiple adjustments for factors such as sociodemographic status, speciality of doctor performing the diagnosis and season of diagnosis. Sunbed exposure and sun exposure during peak hours of sunlight were not significantly associated with Breslow thickness and ulceration. Holidays with sun exposure were associated with favorable CM prognostic factors, whereas no association was identified between sunbed use and sun exposure during peak hours of sunlight with favorable CM prognostic factors. However, the results of the present study do not prove a direct causal effect of sun exposure on melanoma prognosis, as additional confounding factors, including vitamin D serum levels, may have a role.

Thailand plays a substantial role in global HIV-1 transmission of CRF01_AE. Worldwide, men who have sex with men (MSM) are at elevated risk for HIV-1 infection. Hence, understanding HIV-1 diversity in a primarily Thai MSM cohort with acute infection, and its connections to the broader HIV-1 transmission network in Asia is crucial for research and development of HIV-1 vaccines, treatment and cure.

A central question in evolutionary biology is how interactions between organisms and the environment shape genetic differentiation. The pathogen Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis (Bd) has caused variable population declines in the lowland leopard frog (Lithobates yavapaiensis); thus, disease has potentially shaped, or been shaped by, host genetic diversity. Environmental factors can also influence both amphibian immunity and Bd virulence, confounding our ability to assess the genetic effects on disease dynamics. Here, we used genetics, pathogen dynamics, and environmental data to characterize L. yavapaiensis populations, estimate migration, and determine relative contributions of genetic and environmental factors in predicting Bd dynamics. We found that the two uninfected populations belonged to a single genetic deme, whereas each infected population was genetically unique. We detected an outlier locus that deviated from neutral expectations and was significantly correlated with mortality within populations. Across populations, only environmental variables predicted infection intensity, whereas environment and genetics predicted infection prevalence, and genetic diversity alone predicted mortality. At one locality with geothermally elevated water temperatures, migration estimates revealed source-sink dynamics that have likely prevented local adaptation. We conclude that integrating genetic and environmental variation among populations provides a better understanding of Bd spatial epidemiology, generating more effective conservation management strategies for mitigating amphibian declines.

This study evaluated the association of breastfeeding duration with maternal metabolic cardiovascular risk factors among women who have been prospectively followed since birth in a southern Brazilian city. In the unadjusted analysis, total cholesterol was higher among women who never breastfed in relation to those who breastfed ≥12 months. Among women with one livebirth, a shorter duration of breastfeeding was associated with lower HDL, while those with two or more livebirths and that breastfed for shorter time presented lower pulse wave velocity, glycaemia and non-HDL measures. After controlling for confounding variables, the magnitude of these associations decreased, and the confidence intervals included the reference. Concerning the duration of breastfeeding of the last child, the analysis was stratified by time since last birth. After controlling for confounders, systolic blood pressure was lower among women who breastfed 3 to <6 months and had a child within the last five years in relation to those who breastfed ≥6, but no clear trend was observed (p = 0.17). In conclusion, our findings suggest that there is no association between lactation and maternal cardiometabolic risk factors.

Over a decade of genome-wide association studies (GWAS) have led to the finding of extreme polygenicity of complex traits. The phenomenon that "all genes affect every complex trait" complicates Mendelian Randomization (MR) studies, where natural genetic variations are used as instruments to infer the causal effect of heritable risk factors. We reexamine the assumptions of existing MR methods and show how they need to be clarified to allow for pervasive horizontal pleiotropy and heterogeneous effect sizes. We propose a comprehensive framework GRAPPLE to analyze the causal effect of target risk factors with heterogeneous genetic instruments and identify possible pleiotropic patterns from data. By using GWAS summary statistics, GRAPPLE can efficiently use both strong and weak genetic instruments, detect the existence of multiple pleiotropic pathways, determine the causal direction and perform multivariable MR to adjust for confounding risk factors. With GRAPPLE, we analyze the effect of blood lipids, body mass index, and systolic blood pressure on 25 disease outcomes, gaining new information on their causal relationships and potential pleiotropic pathways involved.

Deep vein thrombosis (DVT) is the formation of a blood clot in a deep vein. DVT can lead to a venous thromboembolism (VTE), the combined term for DVT and pulmonary embolism, a leading cause of death and disability worldwide. Despite the prevalence and associated morbidity of DVT, the underlying causes are not well understood. Our aim was to leverage publicly available genetic summary association statistics to identify causal risk factors for DVT. We conducted a Mendelian randomization phenome-wide association study (MR-PheWAS) using genetic summary association statistics for 973 exposures and DVT (6,767 cases and 330,392 controls in UK Biobank). There was evidence for a causal effect of 57 exposures on DVT risk, including previously reported risk factors (e.g. body mass index-BMI and height) and novel risk factors (e.g. hyperthyroidism and varicose veins). As the majority of identified risk factors were adiposity-related, we explored the molecular link with DVT by undertaking a two-sample MR mediation analysis of BMI-associated circulating proteins on DVT risk. Our results indicate that circulating neurogenic locus notch homolog protein 1 (NOTCH1), inhibin beta C chain (INHBC) and plasminogen activator inhibitor 1 (PAI-1) influence DVT risk, with PAI-1 mediating the BMI-DVT relationship. Using a phenome-wide approach, we provide putative causal evidence that hyperthyroidism, varicose veins and BMI enhance the risk of DVT. Furthermore, the circulating protein PAI-1 has a causal role in DVT aetiology and is involved in mediating the BMI-DVT relationship.