We introduce a method for making short-term mortality forecasts of a few months, illustrating it by estimating how many deaths might have happened if some major shock had not occurred. We apply the method to assess excess mortality from March to June 2020 in Denmark and Sweden as a result of the first wave of the coronavirus pandemic; associated policy interventions; and behavioral, healthcare, social, and economic changes. We chose to compare Denmark and Sweden because reliable data were available and because the two countries are similar but chose different responses to COVID-19: Denmark imposed a rather severe lockdown; Sweden did not. We make forecasts by age and sex to predict expected deaths if COVID-19 had not struck. Subtracting these forecasts from observed deaths gives the excess death count. Excess deaths were lower in Denmark than Sweden during the first wave of the pandemic. The later/earlier ratio we propose for shortcasting is easy to understand, requires less data than more elaborate approaches, and may be useful in many countries in making both predictions about the future and the past to study the impact on mortality of coronavirus and other epidemics. In the application to Denmark and Sweden, prediction intervals are narrower and bias is less than when forecasts are based on averages of the last 5 y, as is often done. More generally, later/earlier ratios may prove useful in short-term forecasting of illnesses and births as well as economic and other activity that varies seasonally or periodically.

Defining reliable surrogate markers and overcoming drug resistance are the most challenging issues for improving therapeutic outcomes of antiangiogenic drugs (AADs) in cancer patients. At the time of this writing, no biomarkers are clinically available to predict AAD therapeutic benefits and drug resistance. Here, we uncovered a unique mechanism of AAD resistance in epithelial carcinomas with KRAS mutations that targeted angiopoietin 2 (ANG2) to circumvent antivascular endothelial growth factor (anti-VEGF) responses. Mechanistically, KRAS mutations up-regulated the FOXC2 transcription factor that directly elevated ANG2 expression at the transcriptional level. ANG2 bestowed anti-VEGF resistance as an alternative pathway to augment VEGF-independent tumor angiogenesis. Most colorectal and pancreatic cancers with KRAS mutations were intrinsically resistant to monotherapies of anti-VEGF or anti-ANG2 drugs. However, combination therapy with anti-VEGF and anti-ANG2 drugs produced synergistic and potent anticancer effects in KRAS-mutated cancers. Together, these data demonstrate that KRAS mutations in tumors serve as a predictive marker for anti-VEGF resistance and are susceptible to combination therapy with anti-VEGF and anti-ANG2 drugs.

Autoantibodies against myelin oligodendrocyte glycoprotein (MOG) have recently been established to define a new disease entity, MOG-antibody-associated disease (MOGAD), which is clinically overlapping with multiple sclerosis. MOG-specific antibodies (Abs) from patients are pathogenic, but the precise effector mechanisms are currently still unknown and no therapy is approved for MOGAD. Here, we determined the contributions of complement and Fc-receptor (FcR)-mediated effects in the pathogenicity of MOG-Abs. Starting from a recombinant anti-MOG (mAb) with human IgG1 Fc, we established MOG-specific mutant mAbs with differential FcR and C1q binding. We then applied selected mutants of this MOG-mAb in two animal models of experimental autoimmune encephalomyelitis. First, we found MOG-mAb-induced demyelination was mediated by both complement and FcRs about equally. Second, we found that MOG-Abs enhanced activation of cognate MOG-specific T cells in the central nervous system (CNS), which was dependent on FcR-, but not C1q-binding. The identification of complement-dependent and -independent pathomechanisms of MOG-Abs has implications for therapeutic strategies in MOGAD.

Breast cancer (BC) is a complex disease comprising multiple distinct subtypes with different genetic features and pathological characteristics. Although a large number of antineoplastic compounds have been approved for clinical use, patient-to-patient variability in drug response is frequently observed, highlighting the need for efficient treatment prediction for individualized therapy. Several patient-derived models have been established lately for the prediction of drug response. However, each of these models has its limitations that impede their clinical application. Here, we report that the whole-tumor cell culture (WTC) ex vivo model could be stably established from all breast tumors with a high success rate (98 out of 116), and it could reassemble the parental tumors with the endogenous microenvironment. We observed strong clinical associations and predictive values from the investigation of a broad range of BC therapies with WTCs derived from a patient cohort. The accuracy was further supported by the correlation between WTC-based test results and patients' clinical responses in a separate validation study, where the neoadjuvant treatment regimens of 15 BC patients were mimicked. Collectively, the WTC model allows us to accomplish personalized drug testing within 10 d, even for small-sized tumors, highlighting its potential for individualized BC therapy. Furthermore, coupled with genomic and transcriptomic analyses, WTC-based testing can also help to stratify specific patient groups for assignment into appropriate clinical trials, as well as validate potential biomarkers during drug development.

Dendritic cells (DCs) and monocytes are crucial mediators of innate and adaptive immune responses during viral infection, but misdirected responses by these cells may contribute to immunopathology. Here, we performed high-dimensional flow cytometry-analysis focusing on mononuclear phagocyte (MNP) lineages in SARS-CoV-2-infected patients with moderate and severe COVID-19. We provide a deep and comprehensive map of the MNP landscape in COVID-19. A redistribution of monocyte subsets toward intermediate monocytes and a general decrease in circulating DCs was observed in response to infection. Severe disease coincided with the appearance of monocytic myeloid-derived suppressor cell-like cells and a higher frequency of pre-DC2. Furthermore, phenotypic alterations in MNPs, and their late precursors, were cell-lineage-specific and associated either with the general response against SARS-CoV-2 or COVID-19 severity. This included an interferon-imprint in DC1s observed in all patients and a decreased expression of the coinhibitory molecule CD200R in pre-DCs, DC2s, and DC3 subsets of severely sick patients. Finally, unsupervised analysis revealed that the MNP profile, alone, pointed to a cluster of COVID-19 nonsurvivors. This study provides a reference for the MNP response to SARS-CoV-2 infection and unravels mononuclear phagocyte dysregulations associated with severe COVID-19.

Advanced age and unhealthy dietary habits contribute to the increasing incidence of obesity and type 2 diabetes. These metabolic disorders, which are often accompanied by oxidative stress and compromised nitric oxide (NO) signaling, increase the risk of adverse cardiovascular complications and development of fatty liver disease. Here, we investigated the therapeutic effects of dietary nitrate, which is found in high levels in green leafy vegetables, on liver steatosis associated with metabolic syndrome. Dietary nitrate fuels a nitrate-nitrite-NO signaling pathway, which prevented many features of metabolic syndrome and liver steatosis that developed in mice fed a high-fat diet, with or without combination with an inhibitor of NOS (l-NAME). These favorable effects of nitrate were absent in germ-free mice, demonstrating the central importance of host microbiota in bioactivation of nitrate. In a human liver cell line (HepG2) and in a validated hepatic 3D model with primary human hepatocyte spheroids, nitrite treatment reduced the degree of metabolically induced steatosis (i.e., high glucose, insulin, and free fatty acids), as well as drug-induced steatosis (i.e., amiodarone). Mechanistically, the salutary metabolic effects of nitrate and nitrite can be ascribed to nitrite-derived formation of NO species and activation of soluble guanylyl cyclase, where xanthine oxidoreductase is proposed to mediate the reduction of nitrite. Boosting this nitrate-nitrite-NO pathway results in attenuation of NADPH oxidase-derived oxidative stress and stimulation of AMP-activated protein kinase and downstream signaling pathways regulating lipogenesis, fatty acid oxidation, and glucose homeostasis. These findings may have implications for novel nutrition-based preventive and therapeutic strategies against liver steatosis associated with metabolic dysfunction.

Ribonucleotides (rNMPs) incorporated in the nuclear genome are a well-established threat to genome stability and can result in DNA strand breaks when not removed in a timely manner. However, the presence of a certain level of rNMPs is tolerated in mitochondrial DNA (mtDNA) although aberrant mtDNA rNMP content has been identified in disease models. We investigated the effect of incorporated rNMPs on mtDNA stability over the mouse life span and found that the mtDNA rNMP content increased during early life. The rNMP content of mtDNA varied greatly across different tissues and was defined by the rNTP/dNTP ratio of the tissue. Accordingly, mtDNA rNMPs were nearly absent in SAMHD1-/- mice that have increased dNTP pools. The near absence of rNMPs did not, however, appreciably affect mtDNA copy number or the levels of mtDNA molecules with deletions or strand breaks in aged animals near the end of their life span. The physiological rNMP load therefore does not contribute to the progressive loss of mtDNA quality that occurs as mice age.

An increasing number of studies reveal the importance of long noncoding RNAs (lncRNAs) in gene expression control underlying many physiological and pathological processes. However, their role in skin wound healing remains poorly understood. Our study focused on a skin-specific lncRNA, LOC105372576, whose expression was increased during physiological wound healing. In human nonhealing wounds, however, its level was significantly lower compared with normal wounds under reepithelialization. We characterized LOC105372576 as a nuclear-localized, RNAPII-transcribed, and polyadenylated lncRNA. In keratinocytes, its expression was induced by TGF-β signaling. Knockdown of LOC105372576 and activation of its endogenous transcription, respectively, reduced and increased the motility of keratinocytes and reepithelialization of human ex vivo skin wounds. Therefore, LOC105372576 was termed "wound and keratinocyte migration-associated lncRNA 1" (WAKMAR1). Further study revealed that WAKMAR1 regulated a network of protein-coding genes important for cell migration, most of which were under the control of transcription factor E2F1. Mechanistically, WAKMAR1 enhanced E2F1 expression by interfering with E2F1 promoter methylation through the sequestration of DNA methyltransferases. Collectively, we have identified a lncRNA important for keratinocyte migration, whose deficiency may be involved in the pathogenesis of chronic wounds.

The protein MakA was discovered as a motility-associated secreted toxin from Vibrio cholerae Here, we show that MakA is part of a gene cluster encoding four additional proteins: MakB, MakC, MakD, and MakE. MakA, MakB, and MakE were readily detected in culture supernatants of wild-type V. cholerae, whereas secretion was very much reduced from a flagellum-deficient mutant. Crystal structures of MakA, MakB, and MakE revealed a structural relationship to a superfamily of bacterial pore-forming toxins. Expression of MakA/B/E in Escherichia coli resulted in toxicity toward Caenorhabditis elegans used as a predatory model organism. None of these Mak proteins alone or in pairwise combinations were cytolytic, but an equimolar mixture of MakA, MakB, and MakE acted as a tripartite cytolytic toxin in vitro, causing lysis of erythrocytes and cytotoxicity on cultured human colon carcinoma cells. Formation of oligomeric complexes on liposomes was observed by electron microscopy. Oligomer interaction with membranes was initiated by MakA membrane binding followed by MakB and MakE joining the assembly of a pore structure. A predicted membrane insertion domain of MakA was shown by site-directed mutagenesis to be essential for toxicity toward C. elegans Bioinformatic analyses revealed that the makCDBAE gene cluster is present as a genomic island in the vast majority of sequenced genomes of V. cholerae and the fish pathogen Vibrio anguillarum We suggest that the hitherto-unrecognized cytolytic MakA/B/E toxin can contribute to Vibrionaceae fitness and virulence potential in different host environments and organisms.

Electronic plants, e-Plants, are an organic bioelectronic platform that allows electronic interfacing with plants. Recently we have demonstrated plants with augmented electronic functionality. Using the vascular system and organs of a plant, we manufactured organic electronic devices and circuits in vivo, leveraging the internal structure and physiology of the plant as the template, and an integral part of the devices. However, this electronic functionality was only achieved in localized regions, whereas new electronic materials that could be distributed to every part of the plant would provide versatility in device and circuit fabrication and create possibilities for new device concepts. Here we report the synthesis of such a conjugated oligomer that can be distributed and form longer oligomers and polymer in every part of the xylem vascular tissue of a Rosa floribunda cutting, forming long-range conducting wires. The plant's structure acts as a physical template, whereas the plant's biochemical response mechanism acts as the catalyst for polymerization. In addition, the oligomer can cross through the veins and enter the apoplastic space in the leaves. Finally, using the plant's natural architecture we manufacture supercapacitors along the stem. Our results are preludes to autonomous energy systems integrated within plants and distribute interconnected sensor-actuator systems for plant control and optimization.

Human pancreatic islets highly express CD59, which is a glycosylphosphatidylinositol (GPI)-anchored cell-surface protein and is required for insulin secretion. How cell-surface CD59 could interact with intracellular exocytotic machinery has so far not been described. We now demonstrate the existence of CD59 splice variants in human pancreatic islets, which have unique C-terminal domains replacing the GPI-anchoring signal sequence. These isoforms are found in the cytosol of β-cells, interact with SNARE proteins VAMP2 and SNAP25, colocalize with insulin granules, and rescue insulin secretion in CD59-knockout (KO) cells. We therefore named these isoforms IRIS-1 and IRIS-2 (Isoforms Rescuing Insulin Secretion 1 and 2). Antibodies raised against each isoform revealed that expression of both IRIS-1 and IRIS-2 is significantly lower in islets isolated from human type 2 diabetes (T2D) patients, as compared to healthy controls. Further, glucotoxicity induced in primary, healthy human islets led to a significant decrease of IRIS-1 expression, suggesting that hyperglycemia (raised glucose levels) and subsequent decreased IRIS-1 expression may contribute to relative insulin deficiency in T2D patients. Similar isoforms were also identified in the mouse CD59B gene, and targeted CRISPR/Cas9-mediated knockout showed that these intracellular isoforms, but not canonical CD59B, are involved in insulin secretion from mouse β-cells. Mouse IRIS-2 is also down-regulated in diabetic db/db mouse islets. These findings establish the endogenous existence of previously undescribed non–GPI-anchored intracellular isoforms of human CD59 and mouse CD59B, which are required for normal insulin secretion.

Rheumatoid arthritis (RA) is an inflammatory joint disease with a neurological component including depression, cognitive deficits, and pain, which substantially affect patients' quality of daily life. Insulin-like growth factor 1 receptor (IGF1R) signaling is one of the factors in RA pathogenesis as well as a known regulator of adult neurogenesis. The purpose of this study was to investigate the association between IGF1R signaling and the neurological symptoms in RA. In experimental RA, we demonstrated that arthritis induced enrichment of IBA1+ microglia in the hippocampus. This coincided with inhibitory phosphorylation of insulin receptor substrate 1 (IRS1) and up-regulation of IGF1R in the pyramidal cell layer of the cornus ammoni and in the dentate gyrus, reproducing the molecular features of the IGF1/insulin resistance. The aberrant IGF1R signaling was associated with reduced hippocampal neurogenesis, smaller hippocampus, and increased immobility of RA mice. Inhibition of IGF1R in experimental RA led to a reduction of IRS1 inhibition and partial improvement of neurogenesis. Evaluation of physical functioning and brain imaging in RA patients revealed that enhanced functional disability is linked with smaller hippocampus volume and aberrant IGF1R/IRS1 signaling. These results point to abnormal IGF1R signaling in the brain as a mediator of neurological sequelae in RA and provide support for the potentially reversible nature of hippocampal changes.

Pneumococcal conjugate vaccines (PCVs) used in childhood vaccination programs have resulted in replacement of vaccine-type with nonvaccine-type pneumococci in carriage and invasive pneumococcal disease (IPD). A vaccine based on highly conserved and protective pneumococcal antigens is urgently needed. Here, we performed intranasal immunization of mice with pneumococcal membrane particles (MPs) to mimic natural nasopharyngeal immunization. MP immunization gave excellent serotype-independent protection against IPD that was antibody dependent but independent of the cytotoxin pneumolysin. Using Western blotting, immunoprecipitation, mass spectrometry, and different bacterial mutants, we identified the conserved lipoproteins MalX and PrsA as the main antigens responsible for cross-protection. Additionally, we found that omitting the variable surface protein and vaccine candidate PspA from MPs enhanced protective immune responses to the conserved proteins. Our findings suggest that MPs containing MalX and PrsA could serve as a platform for pneumococcal vaccine development targeting the elderly and immunocompromised.

The zinc finger CCCH-type containing 11A (ZC3H11A) gene encodes a well-conserved zinc finger protein that may function in mRNA export as it has been shown to associate with the transcription export (TREX) complex in proteomic screens. Here, we report that ZC3H11A is a stress-induced nuclear protein with RNA-binding capacity that localizes to nuclear splicing speckles. During an adenovirus infection, the ZC3H11A protein and splicing factor SRSF2 relocalize to nuclear regions where viral DNA replication and transcription take place. Knockout (KO) of ZC3H11A in HeLa cells demonstrated that several nuclear-replicating viruses are dependent on ZC3H11A for efficient growth (HIV, influenza virus, herpes simplex virus, and adenovirus), whereas cytoplasmic replicating viruses are not (vaccinia virus and Semliki Forest virus). High-throughput sequencing of ZC3H11A-cross-linked RNA showed that ZC3H11A binds to short purine-rich ribonucleotide stretches in cellular and adenoviral transcripts. We show that the RNA-binding property of ZC3H11A is crucial for its function and localization. In ZC3H11A KO cells, the adenovirus fiber mRNA accumulates in the cell nucleus. Our results suggest that ZC3H11A is important for maintaining nuclear export of mRNAs during stress and that several nuclear-replicating viruses take advantage of this mechanism to facilitate their replication.

The L-type voltage-gated Ca2+ channel gene CACNA1C is a risk gene for various psychiatric conditions, including schizophrenia and bipolar disorder. However, the cellular mechanism by which CACNA1C contributes to psychiatric disorders has not been elucidated. Here, we report that the embryonic deletion of Cacna1c in neurons destined for the cerebral cortex using an Emx1-Cre strategy disturbs spontaneous Ca2+ activity and causes abnormal brain development and anxiety. By combining computational modeling with electrophysiological membrane potential manipulation, we found that neural network activity was driven by intrinsic spontaneous Ca2+ activity in distinct progenitor cells expressing marginally increased levels of voltage-gated Ca2+ channels. MRI examination of the Cacna1c knockout mouse brains revealed volumetric differences in the neocortex, hippocampus, and periaqueductal gray. These results suggest that Cacna1c acts as a molecular switch and that its disruption during embryogenesis can perturb Ca2+ handling and neural development, which may increase susceptibility to psychiatric disease.

The progressive accumulation, aggregation, and spread of α-synuclein (αSN) are common hallmarks of Parkinson's disease (PD) pathology. Moreover, numerous proteins interact with αSN species, influencing its toxicity in the brain. In the present study, we extended analyses of αSN-interacting proteins to cerebrospinal fluid (CSF). Using coimmunoprecipitation, followed by mass spectrometry, we found that αSN colocalize with apolipoproteins on lipoprotein vesicles. We confirmed these interactions using several methods, including the enrichment of lipoproteins with a recombinant αSN, and the subsequent uptake of prepared vesicles by human dopaminergic neuronal-like cells. Further, we report an increased level of ApoE in CSF from early PD patients compared with matched controls in 3 independent cohorts. Moreover, in contrast to controls, we observed the presence of ApoE-positive neuromelanin-containing dopaminergic neurons in substantia nigra of PD patients. In conclusion, the cooccurrence of αSN on lipoprotein vesicles, and their uptake by dopaminergic neurons along with an increase of ApoE in early PD, proposes a mechanism(s) for αSN spreading in the extracellular milieu of PD.

The basal ganglia play an important role in decision making and selection of action primarily based on input from cortex, thalamus, and the dopamine system. Their main input structure, striatum, is central to this process. It consists of two types of projection neurons, together representing 95% of the neurons, and 5% of interneurons, among which are the cholinergic, fast-spiking, and low threshold-spiking subtypes. The membrane properties, soma-dendritic shape, and intrastriatal and extrastriatal synaptic interactions of these neurons are quite well described in the mouse, and therefore they can be simulated in sufficient detail to capture their intrinsic properties, as well as the connectivity. We focus on simulation at the striatal cellular/microcircuit level, in which the molecular/subcellular and systems levels meet. We present a nearly full-scale model of the mouse striatum using available data on synaptic connectivity, cellular morphology, and electrophysiological properties to create a microcircuit mimicking the real network. A striatal volume is populated with reconstructed neuronal morphologies with appropriate cell densities, and then we connect neurons together based on appositions between neurites as possible synapses and constrain them further with available connectivity data. Moreover, we simulate a subset of the striatum involving 10,000 neurons, with input from cortex, thalamus, and the dopamine system, as a proof of principle. Simulation at this biological scale should serve as an invaluable tool to understand the mode of operation of this complex structure. This platform will be updated with new data and expanded to simulate the entire striatum.

Neutrophils are the most abundant immune cells found in actively inflamed joints of patients with rheumatoid arthritis (RA), and most animal models for RA depend on neutrophils for the induction of joint inflammation. Exogenous IL-4 and IL-13 protect mice from antibody-mediated joint inflammation, although the mechanism is not understood. Neutrophils display a very strong basal expression of STAT6, which is responsible for signaling following exposure to IL-4 and IL-13. Still, the role of IL-4 and IL-13 in neutrophil biology has not been well studied. This can be explained by the low neutrophil surface expression of the IL-4 receptor α-chain (IL-4Rα), essential for IL-4- and IL-13-induced STAT6 signaling. Here we identify that colony stimulating factor 3 (CSF3), released during acute inflammation, mediates potent STAT3-dependent neutrophil IL-4Rα up-regulation during sterile inflammatory conditions. We further demonstrate that IL-4 limits neutrophil migration to inflamed joints, and that CSF3 combined with IL-4 or IL-13 results in a prominent neutrophil up-regulation of the inhibitory Fcγ receptor (FcγR2b). Taking these data together, we demonstrate that the IL-4 and CSF3 pathways are linked and play important roles in regulating proinflammatory neutrophil behavior.

Introduction of exogenous genetic material into primary stem cells is essential for studying biological function and for clinical applications. Traditional delivery methods for nucleic acids, such as electroporation, have advanced the field, but have negative effects on stem cell function and viability. We introduce nanostraw-assisted transfection as an alternative method for RNA delivery to human hematopoietic stem and progenitor cells (HSPCs). Nanostraws are hollow alumina nanotubes that can be used to deliver biomolecules to living cells. We use nanostraws to target human primary HSPCs and show efficient delivery of mRNA, short interfering RNAs (siRNAs), DNA oligonucleotides, and dextrans of sizes ranging from 6 kDa to 2,000 kDa. Nanostraw-treated cells were fully functional and viable, with no impairment in their proliferative or colony-forming capacity, and showed similar long-term engraftment potential in vivo as untreated cells. Additionally, we found that gene expression of the cells was not perturbed by nanostraw treatment, while conventional electroporation changed the expression of more than 2,000 genes. Our results show that nanostraw-mediated transfection is a gentle alternative to established gene delivery methods, and uniquely suited for nonperturbative treatment of sensitive primary stem cells.

The development of safe and efficacious gene vectors has limited greatly the potential for therapeutic treatments based on messenger RNA (mRNA). Lipid nanoparticles (LNPs) formed by an ionizable cationic lipid (here DLin-MC3-DMA), helper lipids (distearoylphosphatidylcholine, DSPC, and cholesterol), and a poly(ethylene glycol) (PEG) lipid have been identified as very promising delivery vectors of short interfering RNA (siRNA) in different clinical phases; however, delivery of high-molecular weight RNA has been proven much more demanding. Herein we elucidate the structure of hEPO modified mRNA-containing LNPs of different sizes and show how structural differences affect transfection of human adipocytes and hepatocytes, two clinically relevant cell types. Employing small-angle scattering, we demonstrate that LNPs have a disordered inverse hexagonal internal structure with a characteristic distance around 6 nm in presence of mRNA, whereas LNPs containing no mRNA do not display this structure. Furthermore, using contrast variation small-angle neutron scattering, we show that one of the lipid components, DSPC, is localized mainly at the surface of mRNA-containing LNPs. By varying LNP size and surface composition we demonstrate that both size and structure have significant influence on intracellular protein production. As an example, in both human adipocytes and hepatocytes, protein expression levels for 130 nm LNPs can differ as much as 50-fold depending on their surface characteristics, likely due to a difference in the ability of LNP fusion with the early endosome membrane. We consider these discoveries to be fundamental and opening up new possibilities for rational design of synthetic nanoscopic vehicles for mRNA delivery.