Observational studies showed that circulating L-ascorbic acid (vitamin C) is inversely associated with cardiometabolic traits. However, these studies were susceptible to confounding and reverse causation.

Most implementations of multiple imputation (MI) of missing data are designed for simple rectangular data structures ignoring temporal ordering of data. Therefore, when applying MI to longitudinal data with intermittent patterns of missing data, some alternative strategies must be considered. One approach is to divide data into time blocks and implement MI independently at each block. An alternative approach is to include all time blocks in the same MI model. With increasing numbers of time blocks, this approach is likely to break down because of co-linearity and over-fitting. The new two-fold fully conditional specification (FCS) MI algorithm addresses these issues, by only conditioning on measurements, which are local in time. We describe and report the results of a novel simulation study to critically evaluate the two-fold FCS algorithm and its suitability for imputation of longitudinal electronic health records. After generating a full data set, approximately 70% of selected continuous and categorical variables were made missing completely at random in each of ten time blocks. Subsequently, we applied a simple time-to-event model. We compared efficiency of estimated coefficients from a complete records analysis, MI of data in the baseline time block and the two-fold FCS algorithm. The results show that the two-fold FCS algorithm maximises the use of data available, with the gain relative to baseline MI depending on the strength of correlations within and between variables. Using this approach also increases plausibility of the missing at random assumption by using repeated measures over time of variables whose baseline values may be missing.

Raised blood pressure (BP) is a major risk factor for cardiovascular disease. Previous studies have identified 47 distinct genetic variants robustly associated with BP, but collectively these explain only a few percent of the heritability for BP phenotypes. To find additional BP loci, we used a bespoke gene-centric array to genotype an independent discovery sample of 25,118 individuals that combined hypertensive case-control and general population samples. We followed up four SNPs associated with BP at our p < 8.56 × 10(-7) study-specific significance threshold and six suggestively associated SNPs in a further 59,349 individuals. We identified and replicated a SNP at LSP1/TNNT3, a SNP at MTHFR-NPPB independent (r(2) = 0.33) of previous reports, and replicated SNPs at AGT and ATP2B1 reported previously. An analysis of combined discovery and follow-up data identified SNPs significantly associated with BP at p < 8.56 × 10(-7) at four further loci (NPR3, HFE, NOS3, and SOX6). The high number of discoveries made with modest genotyping effort can be attributed to using a large-scale yet targeted genotyping array and to the development of a weighting scheme that maximized power when meta-analyzing results from samples ascertained with extreme phenotypes, in combination with results from nonascertained or population samples. Chromatin immunoprecipitation and transcript expression data highlight potential gene regulatory mechanisms at the MTHFR and NOS3 loci. These results provide candidates for further study to help dissect mechanisms affecting BP and highlight the utility of studying SNPs and samples that are independent of those studied previously even when the sample size is smaller than that in previous studies.

Recent research has shown that perceptual processing of stimuli previously associated with high-value rewards is automatically prioritized even when rewards are no longer available. It has been hypothesized that such reward-related modulation of stimulus salience is conceptually similar to an "attentional habit." Recording event-related potentials in humans during a reinforcement learning task, we show strong evidence in favor of this hypothesis. Resistance to outcome devaluation (the defining feature of a habit) was shown by the stimulus-locked P1 component, reflecting activity in the extrastriate visual cortex. Analysis at longer latencies revealed a positive component (corresponding to the P3b, from 550-700 ms) sensitive to outcome devaluation. Therefore, distinct spatiotemporal patterns of brain activity were observed corresponding to habitual and goal-directed processes. These results demonstrate that reinforcement learning engages both attentional habits and goal-directed processes in parallel. Consequences for brain and computational models of reinforcement learning are discussed.SIGNIFICANCE STATEMENT The human attentional network adapts to detect stimuli that predict important rewards. A recent hypothesis suggests that the visual cortex automatically prioritizes reward-related stimuli, driven by cached representations of reward value; that is, stimulus-response habits. Alternatively, the neural system may track the current value of the predicted outcome. Our results demonstrate for the first time that visual cortex activity is increased for reward-related stimuli even when the rewarding event is temporarily devalued. In contrast, longer-latency brain activity was specifically sensitive to transient changes in reward value. Therefore, we show that both habit-like attention and goal-directed processes occur in the same learning episode at different latencies. This result has important consequences for computational models of reinforcement learning.

To understand how device-measured sedentary behaviour and physical activity are related to all-cause mortality in older men, an age group with high levels of inactivity and sedentary behaviour.

The GABA B agonist, baclofen, has been shown to reduce alcohol consumption in patients with alcohol use disorder and also those with comorbid anxiety. This study aimed to evaluate the effect of baclofen versus placebo on the BOLD response during an anticipatory anxiety fMRI task in treatment seeking alcohol patients. Participants included 28 alcohol dependant individuals who had received daily baclofen 30 mg (n = 10), 75 mg (n = 8) or placebo (n = 10) for at least 2 week on a randomized controlled trial (Morley, Leung et al. 2013, Morley, Baillie et al. 2018). Using functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI), we examined threat cue-elicited neural activation during a threat reactivity task 120 min following administration of BAC (30 mg or 75 mg) or placebo. Whole-brain analyses revealed no significant differences between the combined BAC doses versus PL. However, there were significant decreases in anticipatory threat cue-elicited activation observed in BAC 75 mg/day compared to PL participants in the insula. In response to threat cues, high dose (75 mg/day) baclofen administration attenuates activation in the insula and inferior frontal gyrus, relative to placebo. These preliminary findings suggests that modulating emotional regulation and attentional allocation during high threat stimuli may be mediated by GABA B receptors and may be a potential mechanism of action for baclofen's beneficial treatment effects for alcohol use disorder.

Partial factorial trials compare two or more pairs of treatments on overlapping patient groups, randomising some (but not all) patients to more than one comparison. The aims of this research were to compare different methods for conducting and analysing economic evaluations on partial factorial trials and assess the implications of considering factors simultaneously rather than drawing independent conclusions about each comparison.

Maternal smoking is a recognized risk factor for orofacial clefts. Maternal or fetal pharmacogenetic variants are plausible modulators of this risk. In this work, we studied 5,427 DNA samples, including 1,244 from subjects in Denmark and Iowa with facial clefting and 4,183 from parents, siblings, or unrelated population controls. We examined 25 single-nucleotide polymorphisms in 16 genes in pathways for detoxification of components of cigarette smoke, to look for evidence of gene-environment interactions. For genes identified as related to oral clefting, we studied gene-expression profiles in fetal development in the relevant tissues and time intervals. Maternal smoking was a significant risk factor for clefting and showed dosage effects, in both the Danish and Iowan data. Suggestive effects of variants in the fetal NAT2 and CYP1A1 genes were observed in both the Iowan and the Danish participants. In an expanded case set, NAT2 continued to show significant overtransmission of an allele to the fetus, with a final P value of .00003. There was an interaction between maternal smoking and fetal inheritance of a GSTT1-null deletion, seen in both the Danish (P=.03) and Iowan (P=.002) studies, with a Fisher's combined P value of <.001, which remained significant after correction for multiple comparisons. Gene-expression analysis demonstrated expression of GSTT1 in human embryonic craniofacial tissues during the relevant developmental interval. This study benefited from two large samples, involving independent populations, that provided substantial power and a framework for future studies that could identify a susceptible population for preventive health care.

Both the incidence of myocardial infarction (MI) and short-term case fatality have declined in the UK. However, little is known about trends in longer-term survival following an MI. The aim of the study was to investigate trends in longer-term survival, alongside trends in medication prescribing in primary care.

Health warning labels (HWLs) show promise in reducing motivation towards energy-dense snack foods. Understanding the underlying mechanisms could optimise their effectiveness. In two experimental studies in general population samples (Study 1 n = 90; Study 2 n = 1382), we compared the effects of HWLs and irrelevant aversive labels (IALs) on implicit (approach) motivation towards unhealthy snacks, using an approach-avoidance task (Study 1), and a manikin task (Study 2). We also assessed explicit motivation towards unhealthy snacks using food selection tasks. We examined whether labelling effects on motivation arose from the creation of outcome-dependent associations between the food and its health consequences or from simple, non-specific aversive associations. Both label types reduced motivation towards snack foods but only when the label was physically present. HWLs and IALs showed similar effects on implicit motivation, although HWLs reduced explicit motivation more than IALs. Thus, aversive HWLs appear to act both through low level associative mechanisms affecting implicit motivation, and by additionally emphasizing explicit causal links to health outcomes thereby affecting explicitly motivated choice behaviours.

To investigate, using a Mendelian randomisation approach, whether heavier smoking is associated with a range of regional adiposity phenotypes, in particular those related to abdominal adiposity.

There have been few studies describing how production EMR systems can be systematically queried to identify clinically-defined populations and limited studies utilising free-text in this process. The aim of this study is to provide a generalisable methodology for constructing clinically-defined EMR-derived patient cohorts using structured and unstructured data in EMRs.

Two single-nucleotide polymorphisms, rs1051730 and rs16969968, located within the nicotinic acetylcholine receptor gene cluster on chromosome 15q25 locus, are associated with heaviness of smoking, risk for lung cancer, and other smoking-related health outcomes. Previous studies have typically relied on self-reported smoking behavior, which may not fully capture interindividual variation in tobacco exposure.

Carotid artery intima media thickness (cIMT) and carotid plaque are measures of subclinical atherosclerosis associated with ischemic stroke and coronary heart disease (CHD). Here, we undertake meta-analyses of genome-wide association studies (GWAS) in 71,128 individuals for cIMT, and 48,434 individuals for carotid plaque traits. We identify eight novel susceptibility loci for cIMT, one independent association at the previously-identified PINX1 locus, and one novel locus for carotid plaque. Colocalization analysis with nearby vascular expression quantitative loci (cis-eQTLs) derived from arterial wall and metabolic tissues obtained from patients with CHD identifies candidate genes at two potentially additional loci, ADAMTS9 and LOXL4. LD score regression reveals significant genetic correlations between cIMT and plaque traits, and both cIMT and plaque with CHD, any stroke subtype and ischemic stroke. Our study provides insights into genes and tissue-specific regulatory mechanisms linking atherosclerosis both to its functional genomic origins and its clinical consequences in humans.

There is considerable uncertainty regarding the impact of tableware size on food consumption. Most existing studies have used small and unrepresentative samples and have not followed recommended procedures for randomised controlled trials, leading to increased risk of bias. In the first pre-registered study to date, we examined the impact on consumption of using larger versus smaller plates for self-served food. We also assessed impact on the underlying meal micro-structure, such as number of servings and eating rate, which has not previously been studied.

When tackling complex public health challenges such as childhood obesity, interventions focused on immediate causes, such as poor diet and physical inactivity, have had limited success, largely because upstream root causes remain unresolved. A priority is to develop new modelling frameworks to infer the causal structure of complex chronic disease networks, allowing disease "on-ramps" to be identified and targeted.

Red blood cell (RBC) traits are routinely measured in clinical practice as important markers of health. Deviations from the physiological ranges are usually a sign of disease, although variation between healthy individuals also occurs, at least partly due to genetic factors. Recent large scale genetic studies identified loci associated with one or more of these traits; further characterization of known loci and identification of new loci is necessary to better understand their role in health and disease and to identify potential molecular mechanisms. We performed meta-analysis of Metabochip association results for six RBC traits-hemoglobin concentration (Hb), hematocrit (Hct), mean corpuscular hemoglobin (MCH), mean corpuscular hemoglobin concentration (MCHC), mean corpuscular volume (MCV) and red blood cell count (RCC)-in 11 093 Europeans from seven studies of the UCL-LSHTM-Edinburgh-Bristol (UCLEB) Consortium. We identified 394 non-overlapping SNPs in five loci at genome-wide significance: 6p22.1-6p21.33 (with HFE among others), 6q23.2 (with HBS1L among others), 6q23.3 (contains no genes), 9q34.3 (only ABO gene) and 22q13.1 (with TMPRSS6 among others), replicating previous findings of association with RBC traits at these loci and extending them by imputation to 1000 Genomes. We further characterized associations between ABO SNPs and three traits: hemoglobin, hematocrit and red blood cell count, replicating them in an independent cohort. Conditional analyses indicated the independent association of each of these traits with ABO SNPs and a role for blood group O in mediating the association. The 15 most significant RBC-associated ABO SNPs were also associated with five cardiometabolic traits, with discordance in the direction of effect between groups of traits, suggesting that ABO may act through more than one mechanism to influence cardiometabolic risk.

To investigate whether associations of smoking with depression and anxiety are likely to be causal, using a Mendelian randomisation approach.

The Caribbean basin is home to some of the most complex interactions in recent history among previously diverged human populations. Here, we investigate the population genetic history of this region by characterizing patterns of genome-wide variation among 330 individuals from three of the Greater Antilles (Cuba, Puerto Rico, Hispaniola), two mainland (Honduras, Colombia), and three Native South American (Yukpa, Bari, and Warao) populations. We combine these data with a unique database of genomic variation in over 3,000 individuals from diverse European, African, and Native American populations. We use local ancestry inference and tract length distributions to test different demographic scenarios for the pre- and post-colonial history of the region. We develop a novel ancestry-specific PCA (ASPCA) method to reconstruct the sub-continental origin of Native American, European, and African haplotypes from admixed genomes. We find that the most likely source of the indigenous ancestry in Caribbean islanders is a Native South American component shared among inland Amazonian tribes, Central America, and the Yucatan peninsula, suggesting extensive gene flow across the Caribbean in pre-Columbian times. We find evidence of two pulses of African migration. The first pulse--which today is reflected by shorter, older ancestry tracts--consists of a genetic component more similar to coastal West African regions involved in early stages of the trans-Atlantic slave trade. The second pulse--reflected by longer, younger tracts--is more similar to present-day West-Central African populations, supporting historical records of later transatlantic deportation. Surprisingly, we also identify a Latino-specific European component that has significantly diverged from its parental Iberian source populations, presumably as a result of small European founder population size. We demonstrate that the ancestral components in admixed genomes can be traced back to distinct sub-continental source populations with far greater resolution than previously thought, even when limited pre-Columbian Caribbean haplotypes have survived.

Establishing the motivational influences on human action is essential for understanding choice and decision making in health and disease. Here we used tests of value-based decision making, manipulating both predicted and experienced reward values to assess the motivational control of goal-directed action in healthy adolescents and those with obsessive-compulsive disorder (OCD).