Mathematical models are powerful tools in HIV epidemiology, producing quantitative projections of key indicators such as HIV incidence and prevalence. In order to improve the accuracy of predictions, such models need to incorporate a number of behavioural and biological heterogeneities, especially those related to the sexual network within which HIV transmission occurs. An individual-based model, which explicitly models sexual partnerships, is thus often the most natural type of model to choose. In this paper we present PopART-IBM, a computationally efficient individual-based model capable of simulating 50 years of an HIV epidemic in a large, high-prevalence community in under a minute. We show how the model calibrates within a Bayesian inference framework to detailed age- and sex-stratified data from multiple sources on HIV prevalence, awareness of HIV status, ART status, and viral suppression for an HPTN 071 (PopART) study community in Zambia, and present future projections of HIV prevalence and incidence for this community in the absence of trial intervention.

Female genital schistosomiasis (FGS) has been associated with prevalent HIV-1. We estimated the incidence of HIV-1 infection in Zambian women with and without FGS.

Human papillomavirus (HPV) vaccines are given as a two-dose schedule in children aged 9-14 years, or as three doses in older individuals. We compared antibody responses after one dose of HPV vaccine in the Dose Reduction Immunobridging and Safety Study (DoRIS), a randomised trial of different HPV vaccine schedules in Tanzania, to those from two observational HPV vaccine trials that found high efficacy of one dose up to 11 years against HPV16 and HPV18 (Costa Rica Vaccine Trial [CVT] and Institutional Agency for Research on Cancer [IARC] India trial).

Understanding the correlates of HIV shedding is important to inform strategies to reduce HIV infectiousness. We examined correlates of genital HIV-1 RNA in women who were seropositive for both herpes simplex virus (HSV)-2 and HIV-1 and who were enrolled in a randomised controlled trial of HSV suppressive therapy (aciclovir 400 mg b.i.d vs. placebo) in Tanzania.

Human papillomavirus (HPV) DNA has been detected in vaginal samples from adolescent girls who report no previous sex and, in high-income settings, from fingertips, raising the possibility of non-sexual transmission. No such studies originate from East Africa which bears among the highest cervical cancer incidence and HPV prevalence worldwide. HPV-related oral cancer incidence is increasing, but oral HPV prevalence data from East Africa are limited. We aimed to describe the HPV DNA prevalence in genital and non-genital sites and in the bathroom of unvaccinated adolescent girls, and examine genotype concordance between sites.

No reports exist on genotype-specific human papillomavirus (HPV) acquisition in girls after first sex in sub-Saharan Africa, despite high HPV prevalence and cervical cancer incidence.

Some types of intravaginal practices (IVP) may increase the risk for HIV acquisition. This is particularly worrisome for populations with dual high prevalence of HIV and IVP. Women involved in transactional sex are at increased risk for HIV infection in sub-Saharan Africa. Social, cultural and economic influences are strong drivers of IVP in this population. To explore this, we carried out a qualitative research study to investigate the drivers and motivations for using IVP within a large observational study of women at high risk of HIV in Tanzania and Uganda from September 2008 to September 2009. Of the 201 women selected, 176 women took part in a semi-structured in-depth interview. Additionally, in Tanzania, eight focus group discussions among study participants and community members were carried out to obtain information on community norms and expectations. IVP were motivated by overlapping concerns with hygiene, morality, sexual pleasure, fertility, relationship security, and economic security. These motives were driven by the need to meet cultural and social expectations of womanhood, and at the same time attend to personal well-being. Among women involved in transactional sex in East Africa, interventions aimed at modifying or eliminating IVP should attend to local cultural and social norms as well as the individual as an agent of change.

Human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) and herpes simplex virus type 2 (HSV2) are strongly associated, although mechanisms are not fully understood. An HIV prevention trial allowed reexamination of this association at individual and community levels.

HIV counselling and testing is a key component of both HIV care and HIV prevention, but uptake is currently low. We investigated the impact of rapid HIV testing at the workplace on uptake of voluntary counselling and testing (VCT).

The impact of HIV stigma on viral suppression among people living with HIV (PLHIV) is not well characterized.

Female genital schistosomiasis (FGS) is a neglected and disabling gynecological disease that can result from infection with the parasitic trematode Schistosoma haematobium. Accurate diagnosis of FGS is crucial for effective case management, surveillance and control. However, current methods for diagnosis and morbidity assessment can be inaccessible to those at need, labour intensive, costly and unreliable. Molecular techniques such as PCR can be used to reliably diagnose FGS via the detection of Schistosoma DNA using cervicovaginal lavage (CVL) samples as well as lesser-invasive vaginal self-swab (VSS) and cervical self-swab samples. PCR is, however, currently unsuited for use in most endemic settings. As such, in this study, we assessed the use of a rapid and portable S. haematobium recombinase polymerase amplification (Sh-RPA) isothermal molecular diagnostic assay, coupled with simplified sample preparation methodologies, to detect S. haematobium DNA using CVL and VSS samples provided by patients in Zambia.

The long-term impact of universal home-based testing and treatment as part of universal testing and treatment (UTT) on HIV incidence is unknown. We made projections using a detailed individual-based model of the effect of the intervention delivered in the HPTN 071 (PopART) cluster-randomised trial.

There are few data on factors influencing human papillomavirus (HPV) vaccination uptake in sub-Saharan Africa. We examined the characteristics of receivers and non-receivers of HPV vaccination in Tanzania and identified reasons for not receiving the vaccine.

Globally, men have higher tuberculosis (TB) burden but the mechanisms underlying this sex disparity are not fully understood. Recent surveys of social mixing patterns have established moderate preferential within-sex mixing in many settings. This assortative mixing could amplify differences from other causes. We explored the impact of assortative mixing and factors differentially affecting disease progression and detection using a sex-stratified deterministic TB transmission model. We explored the influence of assortativity at disease-free and endemic equilibria, finding stronger effects during invasion and on increasing male:female prevalence (M:F) ratios than overall prevalence. Variance-based sensitivity analysis of endemic equilibria identified differential progression as the most important driver of M:F ratio uncertainty. We fitted our model to prevalence and notification data in exemplar settings within a fully Bayesian framework. For our high M:F setting, random mixing reduced equilibrium M:F ratios by 12% (95% CrI 0-30%). Equalizing male case detection there led to a 20% (95% CrI 11-31%) reduction in M:F ratio over 10 years-insufficient to eliminate sex disparities. However, this potentially achievable improvement was associated with a meaningful 8% (95% CrI 4-14%) reduction in total TB prevalence over this time frame.

The cervicovaginal microbiota, including sexually transmitted infections (STIs), have not been well described in female genital schistosomiasis (FGS).

To describe the prevalence and determinants of HIV stigma in 21 communities in Zambia and South Africa.

A universal testing and treatment strategy is a potential approach to reduce the incidence of human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) infection, yet previous trial results are inconsistent.

The HPTN 071 (PopART) trial showed that a combination HIV prevention package including universal HIV testing and treatment (UTT) reduced population-level incidence of HIV compared with standard care. However, evidence is scarce on the costs and cost-effectiveness of such an intervention.

HIV-1 infection disproportionately affects women in sub-Saharan Africa, where areas of high HIV-1 prevalence and Schistosoma haematobium endemicity largely overlap. Female genital schistosomiasis (FGS), an inflammatory disease caused by S. haematobium egg deposition in the genital tract, has been associated with prevalent HIV-1 infection. Elevated levels of the chemokines MIP-1α (CCL-3), MIP-1β (CCL-4), IP-10 (CXCL-10), and IL-8 (CXCL-8) in cervicovaginal lavage (CVL) have been associated with HIV-1 acquisition. We hypothesize that levels of cervicovaginal cytokines may be raised in FGS and could provide a causal mechanism for the association between FGS and HIV-1. In the cross-sectional BILHIV study, specimens were collected from 603 female participants who were aged 18-31 years, sexually active, not pregnant and participated in the HPTN 071 (PopART) HIV-1 prevention trial in Zambia. Participants self-collected urine, and vaginal and cervical swabs, while CVLs were clinically obtained. Microscopy and Schistosoma circulating anodic antigen (CAA) were performed on urine. Genital samples were examined for parasite-specific DNA by PCR. Women with FGS (n=28), defined as a positive Schistosoma PCR from any genital sample were frequency age-matched with 159 FGS negative (defined as negative Schistosoma PCR, urine CAA, urine microscopy, and colposcopy imaging) women. Participants with probable FGS (n=25) (defined as the presence of either urine CAA or microscopy in combination with one of four clinical findings suggestive of FGS on colposcope-obtained photographs) were also included, for a total sample size of 212. The concentrations of 17 soluble cytokines and chemokines were quantified by a multiplex bead-based immunoassay. There was no difference in the concentrations of cytokines or chemokines between participants with and without FGS. An exploratory analysis of those women with a higher FGS burden, defined by ≥2 genital specimens with detectable Schistosoma DNA (n=15) showed, after adjusting for potential confounders, a higher Th2 (IL-4, IL-5, and IL-13) and pro-inflammatory (IL-15) expression pattern in comparison to FGS negative women, with differences unlikely to be due to chance (p=0.037 for IL-4 and p<0.001 for IL-5 after adjusting for multiple testing). FGS may alter the female genital tract immune environment, but larger studies in areas of varying endemicity are needed to evaluate the association with HIV-1 vulnerability.

To investigate the association between individual and community-level measures of HIV stigma and HIV incidence within the 21 communities participating in the HPTN (071) PopART trial in Zambia and South Africa.