The genus Escherichia is composed of several species and cryptic clades, including E. coli, which behaves as a vertebrate gut commensal, but also as an opportunistic pathogen involved in both diarrheic and extra-intestinal diseases. To characterize the genetic determinants of extra-intestinal virulence within the genus, we carried out an unbiased genome-wide association study (GWAS) on 370 commensal, pathogenic and environmental strains representative of the Escherichia genus phylogenetic diversity and including E. albertii (n = 7), E. fergusonii (n = 5), Escherichia clades (n = 32) and E. coli (n = 326), tested in a mouse model of sepsis. We found that the presence of the high-pathogenicity island (HPI), a ~35 kbp gene island encoding the yersiniabactin siderophore, is highly associated with death in mice, surpassing other associated genetic factors also related to iron uptake, such as the aerobactin and the sitABCD operons. We confirmed the association in vivo by deleting key genes of the HPI in E. coli strains in two phylogenetic backgrounds. We then searched for correlations between virulence, iron capture systems and in vitro growth in a subset of E. coli strains (N = 186) previously phenotyped across growth conditions, including antibiotics and other chemical and physical stressors. We found that virulence and iron capture systems are positively correlated with growth in the presence of numerous antibiotics, probably due to co-selection of virulence and resistance. We also found negative correlations between virulence, iron uptake systems and growth in the presence of specific antibiotics (i.e. cefsulodin and tobramycin), which hints at potential "collateral sensitivities" associated with intrinsic virulence. This study points to the major role of iron capture systems in the extra-intestinal virulence of the genus Escherichia.

Adaptive processes in chronic bacterial infections are well described, but much less is known about the processes at play during acute infections. Here, by sequencing seven randomly selected isolates per patient, we analyzed Escherichia coli populations from three acute extraintestinal infections in adults (meningitis, pyelonephritis, and peritonitis), in which a high-mutation-rate isolate or mutator isolate was found. The isolates of single patients displayed between a few dozen and more than 200 independent mutations, with up to half being specific to the mutator isolate. Multiple signs of positive selection were evidenced: a high ratio of nonsynonymous to synonymous mutations (Ka /Ks ratio) and strong mutational convergence within and between patients, some of them at loci well known for their adaptive potential, such as rpoS, rbsR, fimH, and fliC For all patients, the mutator isolate was likely due to a large deletion of a methyl-directed mismatch repair gene, and in two instances, the deletion extended to genes involved in some genetic convergence, suggesting potential coselection. Intrinsic extraintestinal virulence assessed in a mouse model of sepsis showed variable patterns of virulence ranging from non-mouse killer to mouse killer for the isolates from single patients. However, genomic signature and gene inactivation experiments did not establish a link between a single gene and the capacity to kill mice, highlighting the complex and multifactorial nature of the virulence. Altogether, these data indicate that E. coli isolates are adapting under strong selective pressure when colonizing an extraintestinal site.IMPORTANCE Little is known about the dynamics of adaptation in acute bacterial infections. By sequencing multiple isolates from monoclonal extraintestinal Escherichia coli infections in several patients, we were able to uncover traces of selection taking place at short time scales compared to chronic infection. High genomic diversity was observed in the patient isolates, with an excess of nonsynonymous mutations, and the comparison within and between different infections showed patterns of convergence at the gene level, both constituting strong signs of adaptation. The genes targeted were coding mostly for proteins involved in global regulation, metabolism, and adhesion/motility. Moreover, virulence assessed in a mouse model of sepsis was variable among the isolates of single patients, but this difference was left unexplained at the molecular level. This work gives us clues about the E. coli lifestyle transition between commensalism and pathogenicity.

Travel to tropical regions is associated with high risk of acquiring extended-spectrum beta-lactamase-producing Enterobacterales (ESBL-E) that are typically cleared in less than 3 months following return. The conditions leading to persistent carriage that exceeds 3 months in some travellers require investigation. Whole-genome sequencing (Illumina MiSeq) was performed on the 82 ESBL-E isolates detected upon return and 1, 2, 3, 6 and 12 months later from the stools of 11 long-term (>3 months) ESBL-E carriers following travel abroad. One to five different ESBL Escherichia coli strains were detected per traveller upon return, and this diminished to one after 3 months. Long-term carriage was due to the presence of the same ESBL E. coli strain, for more than 3 months, in 9 out of 11 travellers, belonging to epidemic sequence type complexes (STc 10, 14, 38, 69, 131 and 648). The mean carriage duration of strains belonging to phylogroups B2/D/F, associated with extra-intestinal virulence, was higher than that for commensal-associated A/B1/E phylogroups (3.5 vs 0.5 months, P=0.021). Genes encoding iron capture systems (fyuA, irp), toxins (senB, sat), adhesins (flu, daaF, afa/nfaE, pap, ecpA) and colicin (cjrA) were more often present in persistent strains than in transient ones. Single-nucleotide polymorphism (SNP) analysis in persistent strains showed a maximum divergence of eight SNPs over 12 months without signs of adaptation. Genomic plasticity was observed during the follow-up with the loss or gain of mobile genetic elements such as plasmids, integrons and/or transposons that may contain resistance genes at different points in the follow-up. Long-term colonization of ESBL-E following travel is primarily due to the acquisition of E. coli strains belonging to epidemic clones and harbouring 'virulence genes', allowing good adaptation to the intestinal microbiota.

Escherichia coli is both a highly prevalent commensal and a major opportunistic pathogen causing bloodstream infections (BSI). A systematic analysis characterizing the genomic determinants of extra-intestinal pathogenic vs. commensal isolates in human populations, which could inform mechanisms of pathogenesis, diagnostic, prevention and treatment is still lacking. We used a collection of 912 BSI and 370 commensal E. coli isolates collected in France over a 17-year period (2000-2017). We compared their pangenomes, genetic backgrounds (phylogroups, STs, O groups), presence of virulence-associated genes (VAGs) and antimicrobial resistance genes, finding significant differences in all comparisons between commensal and BSI isolates. A machine learning linear model trained on all the genetic variants derived from the pangenome and controlling for population structure reveals similar differences in VAGs, discovers new variants associated with pathogenicity (capacity to cause BSI), and accurately classifies BSI vs. commensal strains. Pathogenicity is a highly heritable trait, with up to 69% of the variance explained by bacterial genetic variants. Lastly, complementing our commensal collection with an older collection from 1980, we predict that pathogenicity continuously increased through 1980, 2000, to 2010. Together our findings imply that E. coli exhibit substantial genetic variation contributing to the transition between commensalism and pathogenicity and that this species evolved towards higher pathogenicity.

Although polymicrobial infections, caused by combinations of viruses, bacteria, fungi and parasites, are being recognised with increasing frequency, little is known about the occurrence of within-species diversity in bacterial infections and the molecular and evolutionary bases of this diversity. We used multiple approaches to study the genomic and phenotypic diversity among 226 Escherichia coli isolates from deep and closed visceral infections occurring in 19 patients. We observed genomic variability among isolates from the same site within 11 patients. This diversity was of two types, as patients were infected either by several distinct E. coli clones (4 patients) or by members of a single clone that exhibit micro-heterogeneity (11 patients); both types of diversity were present in 4 patients. A surprisingly wide continuum of antibiotic resistance, outer membrane permeability, growth rate, stress resistance, red dry and rough morphotype characteristics and virulence properties were present within the isolates of single clones in 8 of the 11 patients showing genomic micro-heterogeneity. Many of the observed phenotypic differences within clones affected the trade-off between self-preservation and nutritional competence (SPANC). We showed in 3 patients that this phenotypic variability was associated with distinct levels of RpoS in co-existing isolates. Genome mutational analysis and global proteomic comparisons in isolates from a patient revealed a star-like relationship of changes amongst clonally diverging isolates. A mathematical model demonstrated that multiple genotypes with distinct RpoS levels can co-exist as a result of the SPANC trade-off. In the cases involving infection by a single clone, we present several lines of evidence to suggest diversification during the infectious process rather than an infection by multiple isolates exhibiting a micro-heterogeneity. Our results suggest that bacteria are subject to trade-offs during an infectious process and that the observed diversity resembled results obtained in experimental evolution studies. Whatever the mechanisms leading to diversity, our results have strong medical implications in terms of the need for more extensive isolate testing before deciding on antibiotic therapies.

Previous studies have established a correlation between electrophoretic polymorphism of esterase B, and virulence and phylogeny of Escherichia coli. Strains belonging to the phylogenetic group B2 are more frequently implicated in extraintestinal infections and include esterase B2 variants, whereas phylogenetic groups A, B1 and D contain less virulent strains and include esterase B1 variants. We investigated esterase B as a marker of phylogeny and/or virulence, in a thorough analysis of the esterase B-encoding gene.

Antimicrobial resistance is a major public health concern worldwide affecting humans, animals and the environment. However, data is lacking especially in developing countries. Thus, the World Health Organization developed a One-Health surveillance project called Tricycle focusing on the prevalence of ESBL-producing Escherichia coli in humans, animals, and the environment. Here we present the first results of the human community component of Tricycle in Madagascar. From July 2018 to April 2019, rectal swabs from 492 pregnant women from Antananarivo, Mahajanga, Ambatondrazaka, and Toamasina were tested for ESBL-E. coli carriage. Demographic, sociological and environmental risk factors were investigated, and E. coli isolates were characterized (antibiotic susceptibility, resistance and virulence genes, plasmids, and genomic diversity). ESBL-E. coli prevalence carriage in pregnant women was 34% varying from 12% (Toamasina) to 65% (Ambatondrazaka). The main risk factor associated with ESBL-E. coli carriage was the rainy season (OR = 2.9, 95% CI 1.3-5.6, p = 0.009). Whole genome sequencing was performed on 168 isolates from 144 participants. bla CTX-M-15 was the most frequent ESBL gene (86%). One isolate was resistant to carbapenems and carried the bla NDM-5 gene. Most isolates belonged to commensalism associated phylogenetic groups A, B1, and C (90%) and marginally to extra-intestinal virulence associated phylogenetic groups B2, D and F (10%). Multi locus sequence typing showed 67 different sequence types gathered in 17 clonal complexes (STc), the most frequent being STc10/phylogroup A (35%), followed distantly by the emerging STc155/phylogroup B1 (7%), STc38/phylogroup D (4%) and STc131/phylogroup B2 (3%). While a wide diversity of clones has been observed, SNP analysis revealed several genetically close isolates (n = 34/168) which suggests human-to-human transmissions. IncY plasmids were found with an unusual prevalence (23%), all carrying a bla CTX-M-15. Most of them (85%) showed substantial homology (≥85%) suggesting a dissemination of IncY ESBL plasmids in Madagascar. This large-scale study reveals a high prevalence of ESBL-E. coli among pregnant women in four cities in Madagascar associated with warmth and rainfall. It shows the great diversity of E. coli disseminating throughout the country but also transmission of specific clones and spread of plasmids. This highlights the urgent need of public-health interventions to control antibiotic resistance in the country.

The intrinsic virulence of extra-intestinal pathogenic Escherichia coli is associated with numerous chromosomal and/or plasmid-borne genes, encoding diverse functions such as adhesins, toxins, and iron capture systems. However, the respective contribution to virulence of those genes seems to depend on the genetic background and is poorly understood. Here, we analyze genomes of 232 strains of sequence type complex STc58 and show that virulence (quantified in a mouse model of sepsis) emerged in a sub-group of STc58 due to the presence of the siderophore-encoding high-pathogenicity island (HPI). When extending our genome-wide association study to 370 Escherichia strains, we show that full virulence is associated with the presence of the aer or sit operons, in addition to the HPI. The prevalence of these operons, their co-occurrence and their genomic location depend on strain phylogeny. Thus, selection of lineage-dependent specific associations of virulence-associated genes argues for strong epistatic interactions shaping the emergence of virulence in E. coli.

Escherichia coli is a commensal bacterium of the gastro-intestinal tract of human and vertebrate animals, although the aquatic environment could be a secondary habitat. The aim of this study was to investigate the effect of hydrological conditions on the structure of the E. coli population in the water of a creek on a small rural watershed in France composed of pasture and with human occupation.

Increasing numbers of pyelonephritis-associated uropathogenic Escherichia coli (UPEC) are exhibiting high resistance to antibiotic therapy. They include a particular clonal group, the CTX-M-15-producing O25b:H4-ST131 clone, which has been shown to have a high dissemination potential. Here we show that a representative isolate of this E. coli clone, referred to as TN03, has enhanced metabolic capacities, acts as a potent intestine- colonizing strain, and displays the typical features of UPEC strains. In a modified streptomycin-treated mouse model of intestinal colonization where streptomycin was stopped 5 days before inoculation, we show that TN03 outcompetes the commensal E. coli strains K-12 MG1655, IAI1, and ED1a at days 1 and 7. Using an experimental model of ascending UTI in C3H/HeN mice, we then show that TN03 colonized the urinary tract. One week after the transurethral inoculation of the TN03 isolates, the bacterial loads in the bladder and kidneys were significantly greater than those of two other UPEC strains (CFT073 and HT7) belonging to the same B2 phylogenetic group. The differences in bacterial loads did not seem to be directly linked to differences in the inflammatory response, since the intrarenal expression of chemokines and cytokines and the number of polymorphonuclear neutrophils attracted to the site of inflammation was the same in kidneys colonized by TN03, CFT073, or HT7. Lastly, we show that in vitro TN03 has a high maximum growth rate in both complex (Luria-Bertani and human urine) and minimum media. In conclusion, our findings indicate that TN03 is a potent UPEC strain that colonizes the intestinal tract and may persist in the kidneys of infected hosts.

Extraintestinal pathogenic Escherichia coli (ExPEC) strains represent a huge public health burden. Knowledge of their clonal diversity and of the association of clones with genomic content and clinical features is a prerequisite to recognize strains with a high invasive potential. In order to provide an unbiased view of the diversity of E. coli strains responsible for bacteremia, we studied 161 consecutive isolates from patients with positive blood culture obtained during one year in two French university hospitals. We collected precise clinical information, multilocus sequence typing (MLST) data and virulence gene content for all isolates. A subset representative of the clonal diversity was subjected to comparative genomic hybridization (CGH) using 2,324 amplicons from the flexible gene pool of E. coli.

Escherichia coli SOS functions constitute a multifaceted response to DNA damage. We undertook to study the role of yafP, a SOS gene with unknown function. yafP is part of an operon also containing the dinB gene coding for DNA Polymerase IV (PolIV). Our phylogenetic analysis showed that the gene content of this operon is variable but that the dinB and the yafP genes are conserved in the majority of E. coli natural isolates. Therefore, we studied if these proteins are functionally linked. Using a murine septicaemia model, we showed that YafP activity reduced the bacterial fitness in the absence of PolIV. Similarly, YafP increased cytotoxicity of two DNA damaging nitroaromatic compounds, 4-nitroquinoline-1-oxide (NQO) and nitrofurazone, in the absence of PolIV. The fact that PolIV counterbalances YafP-induced cytotoxicity could explain why these two genes are transcriptionally linked. We also studied the involvement of YafP in genotoxic-stress induced mutagenesis and found that PolIV and YafP reduced NQO-induced mutagenicity. The YafP antimutator activity was independent of the PolIV activity. Given that YafP was annotated as a putative acetyltransferase, it could be that YafP participates in the metabolic transformation of genotoxic compounds, hence modulating the balance between their mutagenicity and cytotoxicity.

The aim of this study was to investigate the diversity of the Escherichia coli population, focusing on the occurrence of pathogenic E. coli, in surface water draining a rural catchment. Two sampling campaigns were carried out in similar hydrological conditions (wet period, low flow) along a river continuum, characterized by two opposite density gradients of animals (cattle and wild animals) and human populations. While the abundance of E. coli slightly increased along the river continuum, the abundance of both human and ruminant-associated Bacteroidales markers, as well as the number of E. coli multi-resistant to antibiotics, evidenced a fecal contamination originating from animals at upstream rural sites, and from humans at downstream urban sites. A strong spatial modification of the structure of the E. coli population was observed. At the upstream site close to a forest, a higher abundance of the B2 phylogroup and Escherichia clade strains were observed. At the pasture upstream site, a greater proportion of both E and B1 phylogroups was detected, therefore suggesting a fecal contamination of mainly bovine origin. Conversely, in downstream urban sites, A, D, and F phylogroups were more abundant. To assess the occurrence of intestinal pathogenic strains, virulence factors [afaD, stx1, stx2, eltB (LT), estA (ST), ipaH, bfpA, eae, aaiC and aatA] were screened among 651 E. coli isolates. Intestinal pathogenic strains STEC O174:H21 (stx2) and EHEC O26:H11 (eae, stx1) were isolated in water and sediments close to the pasture site. In contrast, in the downstream urban site aEPEC/EAEC and DAEC of human origin, as well as extra-intestinal pathogenic E. coli belonging to clonal group A of D phylogroup, were sampled. Even if the estimated input of STEC (Shiga toxin-producing E. coli) - released in water at the upstream pasture site - at the downstream site was low, we show that STEC could persist in sediment. These results show that, the run-off of small cattle farms contributed, as much as the wastewater effluent, in the dissemination of pathogenic E. coli in both water and sediments, even if the microbiological quality of the water was good or to average quality according to the French water index.

Escherichia coli O25b:H4 sequence type 131 (ST131), which is resistant to fluoroquinolones and which is a producer of CTX-M-15, is globally one of the major extraintestinal pathogenic E. coli (ExPEC) lineages. Phylogenetic analyses showed that multidrug-resistant ST131 strains belong to clade C, which recently emerged from clade B by stepwise evolution. It has been hypothesized that features other than multidrug resistance could contribute to this dissemination since other major global ExPEC lineages (ST73 and ST95) are mostly antibiotic susceptible. To test this hypothesis, we compared early biofilm production, presence of ExPEC virulence factors (VFs), and in vivo virulence in a mouse sepsis model in 19 and 20 epidemiologically relevant strains of clades B and C, respectively. Clade B strains were significantly earlier biofilm producers (P < 0.001), carriers of more VFs (P = 4e-07), and faster killers of mice (P = 2e-10) than clade C strains. Gene inactivation experiments showed that the H30-fimB and ibeART genes were associated with in vivo virulence. Competition assays in sepsis, gut colonization, and urinary tract infection models between the most anciently diverged strain (B1 subclade), one C1 subclade strain, and a B4 subclade recombining strain harboring some clade C-specific genetic events showed that the B1 strain always outcompeted the C1 strain, whereas the B4 strain outcompeted the C1 strain, depending on the mouse niches. All these findings strongly suggest that clade C evolution includes a progressive loss of virulence involving multiple genes, possibly enhancing overall strain fitness by avoiding severe infections, even if it comes at the cost of a lower colonization ability.

Recent studies have highlighted the importance of ecological interactions in dysbiosis of gut microbiota, but few focused on their role in antibiotic-induced perturbations. We used the data from the CEREMI trial in which 22 healthy volunteers received a 3-day course of ceftriaxone or cefotaxime antibiotics. Fecal samples were analyzed by 16S rRNA gene profiling, and the total bacterial counts were determined in each sample by flux cytometry. As the gut exposure to antibiotics could not be experimentally measured despite a marked impact on the gut microbiota, it was reconstructed using the counts of susceptible Escherichia coli. The dynamics of absolute counts of bacterial families were analyzed using a generalized Lotka-Volterra equations and nonlinear mixed effect modeling. Bacterial interactions were studied using a stepwise approach. Two negative and three positive interactions were identified. Introducing bacterial interactions in the modeling approach better fitted the data, and provided different estimates of antibiotic effects on each bacterial family than a simple model without interaction. The time to return to 95% of the baseline counts was significantly longer in ceftriaxone-treated individuals than in cefotaxime-treated subjects for two bacterial families: Akkermansiaceae (median [range]: 11.3 days [0; 180.0] vs. 4.2 days [0; 25.6], p = 0.027) and Tannerellaceae (13.7 days [6.1; 180.0] vs. 6.2 days [5.4; 17.3], p = 0.003). Taking bacterial interaction as well as individual antibiotic exposure profile into account improves the analysis of antibiotic-induced dysbiosis.

To understand the evolutionary dynamics of extended-spectrum β-lactamase (ESBL)-encoding genes in Escherichia coli, we undertook a comparative genomic analysis of 116 whole plasmid sequences of human or animal origin isolated over a period spanning before and after the use of third-generation cephalosporins (3GCs) using a gene-sharing network approach. The plasmids included 82 conjugative, 22 mobilizable and 9 non-transferable plasmids and 3 P-like bacteriophages. ESBL-encoding genes were found on 64 conjugative, 6 mobilizable, 2 non-transferable plasmids and 2 P1-like bacteriophages, indicating that these last three types of mobile elements also play a role, albeit modest, in the diffusion of the ESBLs. The network analysis showed that the plasmids clustered according to their genome backbone type, but not by origin or period of isolation or by antibiotic-resistance type, including type of ESBL-encoding gene. There was no association between the type of plasmid and the phylogenetic history of the parental strains. Finer scale analysis of the more abundant clusters IncF and IncI1 showed that ESBL-encoding plasmids and plasmids isolated before the use of 3GCs had the same diversity and phylogenetic history, and that acquisition of ESBL-encoding genes had occurred during multiple independent events. Moreover, the blaCTX-M-15 gene, unlike other CTX-M genes, was inserted at a hot spot in a blaTEM-1-Tn2 transposon. These findings showed that ESBL-encoding genes have arrived on wide range of pre-existing plasmids and that the successful spread of blaCTX-M-15 seems to be favoured by the presence of well-adapted IncF plasmids that carry a Tn2-blaTEM-1 transposon.

The Escherichia coli lineage known as clonal complex 95 (CC95) is a cosmopolitan human-associated lineage responsible for a significant fraction of extraintestinal infections of humans. Whole-genome sequence data of 200 CC95 strains from various origins enabled determination of the CC95 pangenome. The pangenome analysis revealed that strains of the complex could be assigned to one of five subgroups that vary in their serotype, extraintestinal virulence, virulence gene content, and antibiotic resistance gene profile. A total of 511 CC95 strains isolated from humans living in France, Australia, and the United States were screened for their subgroup membership using a PCR-based method. The CC95 subgroups are nonrandomly distributed with respect to their geographic origin. The relative frequency of the subgroups was shown to change through time, although the nature of the changes varies with continent. Strains of the subgroups are also nonrandomly distributed with respect to source of isolation (blood, urine, or feces) and host sex. Collectively, the evidence indicates that although strains belonging to CC95 may be cosmopolitan, human movement patterns have been insufficient to homogenize the distribution of the CC95 subgroups. Rather, the manner in which CC95 strains evolve appears to vary both spatially and temporally. Although CC95 strains appeared globally as pandemic, fine-scale structure analysis shows epidemic patterns of the CC95 subgroups. Furthermore, the observation that the relative frequency of CC95 subgroups at a single locality has changed over time indicates that the relative fitness of the subgroups has changed. IMPORTANCEEscherichia coli clonal complex 95 represents a cosmopolitan, genetically diverse lineage, and the extensive substructure observed in this lineage is epidemiologically and clinically relevant. The frequency with which CC95 strains are responsible for extraintestinal infection appears to have been stable over the past 15 years. However, the different subgroups identified within this lineage have an epidemic structure depending on the host, sample, continent, and time. Thus, the evolution and spread of strains belonging to CC95 are very different from those of another cosmopolitan human-associated clonal complex, CC131, which has increased significantly in frequency as a cause of extraintestinal infection over the past 15 years due to the evolution and spread of two very closely related, nearly monomorphic lineages.

The Escherichia coli species represents one of the best-studied model organisms, but also encompasses a variety of commensal and pathogenic strains that diversify by high rates of genetic change. We uniformly (re-) annotated the genomes of 20 commensal and pathogenic E. coli strains and one strain of E. fergusonii (the closest E. coli related species), including seven that we sequenced to completion. Within the approximately 18,000 families of orthologous genes, we found approximately 2,000 common to all strains. Although recombination rates are much higher than mutation rates, we show, both theoretically and using phylogenetic inference, that this does not obscure the phylogenetic signal, which places the B2 phylogenetic group and one group D strain at the basal position. Based on this phylogeny, we inferred past evolutionary events of gain and loss of genes, identifying functional classes under opposite selection pressures. We found an important adaptive role for metabolism diversification within group B2 and Shigella strains, but identified few or no extraintestinal virulence-specific genes, which could render difficult the development of a vaccine against extraintestinal infections. Genome flux in E. coli is confined to a small number of conserved positions in the chromosome, which most often are not associated with integrases or tRNA genes. Core genes flanking some of these regions show higher rates of recombination, suggesting that a gene, once acquired by a strain, spreads within the species by homologous recombination at the flanking genes. Finally, the genome's long-scale structure of recombination indicates lower recombination rates, but not higher mutation rates, at the terminus of replication. The ensuing effect of background selection and biased gene conversion may thus explain why this region is A+T-rich and shows high sequence divergence but low sequence polymorphism. Overall, despite a very high gene flow, genes co-exist in an organised genome.

Understanding how genetic variation contributes to phenotypic differences is a fundamental question in biology. Combining high-throughput gene function assays with mechanistic models of the impact of genetic variants is a promising alternative to genome-wide association studies. Here we have assembled a large panel of 696 Escherichia coli strains, which we have genotyped and measured their phenotypic profile across 214 growth conditions. We integrated variant effect predictors to derive gene-level probabilities of loss of function for every gene across all strains. Finally, we combined these probabilities with information on conditional gene essentiality in the reference K-12 strain to compute the growth defects of each strain. Not only could we reliably predict these defects in up to 38% of tested conditions, but we could also directly identify the causal variants that were validated through complementation assays. Our work demonstrates the power of forward predictive models and the possibility of precision genetic interventions.

Escherichia coli is the leading cause of bloodstream infections, associated with a significant mortality. Recent genomic analyses revealed that few clonal lineages are involved in bloodstream infections and captured the emergence of some of them. However, data on within sequence type (ST) population genetic structure evolution are rare.