Family-based and genome-wide association studies (GWAS) of alcohol dependence (AD) have reported numerous associated variants. The clinical validity of these variants for predicting AD compared with family history information has not been reported. Using the Collaborative Study on the Genetics of Alcoholism (COGA) and the Study of Addiction: Genes and Environment (SAGE) GWAS samples, we examined the aggregate impact of multiple single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) on risk prediction. We created genetic sum scores by adding risk alleles associated in discovery samples, and then tested the scores for their ability to discriminate between cases and controls in validation samples. Genetic sum scores were assessed separately for SNPs associated with AD in candidate gene studies and SNPs from GWAS analyses that met varying P-value thresholds. Candidate gene sum scores did not exhibit significant predictive accuracy. Family history was a better classifier of case-control status, with a significant area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) of 0.686 in COGA and 0.614 in SAGE. SNPs that met less stringent P-value thresholds of 0.01-0.50 in GWAS analyses yielded significant AUC estimates, ranging from mean estimates of 0.549 for SNPs with P < 0.01 to 0.565 for SNPs with P < 0.50. This study suggests that SNPs currently have limited clinical utility, but there is potential for enhanced predictive ability with better understanding of the large number of variants that might contribute to risk.

Cytochrome P450 2A6 (CYP2A6) encodes the enzyme responsible for the majority of nicotine metabolism. Previous studies support that slow metabolizers smoke fewer cigarettes once nicotine dependent but provide conflicting results on the role of CYP2A6 in the development of dependence. By focusing on the critical period of young adulthood, this study examines the relationship of CYP2A6 variation and smoking milestones. A total of 1209 European American young adults enrolled in the Collaborative Study on the Genetics of Alcoholism were genotyped for CYP2A6 variants to calculate a previously well-validated metric that estimates nicotine metabolism. This metric was not associated with the transition from never smoking to smoking initiation nor with the transition from initiation to daily smoking (P > 0.4). But among young adults who had become daily smokers (n = 506), decreased metabolism was associated with increased risk of nicotine dependence (P = 0.03) (defined as Fagerström Test for Nicotine Dependence score ≥4). This finding was replicated in the Collaborative Genetic Study of Nicotine Dependence with 335 young adult daily smokers (P = 0.02). Secondary meta-analysis indicated that slow metabolizers had a 53 percent increased odds (OR = 1.53, 95 percent CI 1.11-2.11, P = 0.009) of developing nicotine dependence compared with normal metabolizers. Furthermore, secondary analyses examining four-level response of time to first cigarette after waking (>60, 31-60, 6-30, ≤5 minutes) demonstrated a robust effect of the metabolism metric in Collaborative Study on the Genetics of Alcoholism (P = 0.03) and Collaborative Genetic Study of Nicotine Dependence (P = 0.004), illustrating the important role of this measure of dependence. These findings highlight the complex role of CYP2A6 variation across different developmental stages of smoking behaviors.