Forest encroachment into savanna is occurring at an unprecedented rate across tropical Africa, leading to a loss of valuable savanna habitat. One of the first stages of forest encroachment is the establishment of tree seedlings at the forest-savanna transition. This study examines the demographic bottleneck in the seedlings of five species of tropical forest pioneer trees in a forest-savanna transition zone in West Africa. Five species of tropical pioneer forest tree seedlings were planted in savanna, mixed/transition, and forest vegetation types and grown for 12 months, during which time fire occurred in the area. We examined seedling survival rates, height, and stem diameter before and after fire; and seedling biomass and starch allocation patterns after fire. Seedling survival rates were significantly affected by fire, drought, and vegetation type. Seedlings that preferentially allocated more resources to increasing root and leaf starch (starch storage helps recovery from fire) survived better in savanna environments (frequently burnt), while seedlings that allocated more resources to growth and resource-capture traits (height, the number of leaves, stem diameter, specific leaf area, specific root length, root-to-shoot ratio) survived better in mixed/transition and forest environments. Larger (taller with a greater stem diameter) seedlings survived burning better than smaller seedlings. However, larger seedlings survived better than smaller ones even in the absence of fire. Bombax buonopozense was the forest species that survived best in the savanna environment, likely as a result of increased access to light allowing greater investment in belowground starch storage capacity and therefore a greater ability to cope with fire.

The Amazon rain forest sustains the world's highest tree diversity, but it remains unclear why some clades of trees are hyperdiverse, whereas others are not. Using dated phylogenies, estimates of current species richness and trait and demographic data from a large network of forest plots, we show that fast demographic traits--short turnover times--are associated with high diversification rates across 51 clades of canopy trees. This relationship is robust to assuming that diversification rates are either constant or decline over time, and occurs in a wide range of Neotropical tree lineages. This finding reveals the crucial role of intrinsic, ecological variation among clades for understanding the origin of the remarkable diversity of Amazonian trees and forests.

Land-atmosphere exchanges influence atmospheric CO2. Emphasis has been on describing photosynthetic CO2 uptake, but less on respiration losses. New global datasets describe upper canopy dark respiration (R d) and temperature dependencies. This allows characterisation of baseline R d, instantaneous temperature responses and longer-term thermal acclimation effects. Here we show the global implications of these parameterisations with a global gridded land model. This model aggregates R d to whole-plant respiration R p, driven with meteorological forcings spanning uncertainty across climate change models. For pre-industrial estimates, new baseline R d increases R p and especially in the tropics. Compared to new baseline, revised instantaneous response decreases R p for mid-latitudes, while acclimation lowers this for the tropics with increases elsewhere. Under global warming, new R d estimates amplify modelled respiration increases, although partially lowered by acclimation. Future measurements will refine how R d aggregates to whole-plant respiration. Our analysis suggests R p could be around 30% higher than existing estimates.

Cluster of differentiation 47 (CD47) is a transmembrane protein highly expressed in tumor cells that interacts with signal regulatory protein alpha (SIRPα) and triggers a "don't eat me" signal to the macrophage, inhibiting phagocytosis and enabling tumor escape from immunosurveillance. The CD47-SIRPα axis has become an important target for cancer immunotherapy. To date, the advancement of CD47-targeted modalities is hindered by the ubiquitous expression of the target, often leading to rapid drug elimination and hematologic toxicity including anemia. To overcome those challenges a bispecific approach was taken. CC-96673, a humanized IgG1 bispecific antibody co-targeting CD47 and CD20, is designed to bind CD20 with high affinity and CD47 with optimally lowered affinity. As a result of the detuned CD47 affinity, CC-96673 selectively binds to CD20-expressing cells, blocking the interaction of CD47 with SIRPα. This increased selectivity of CC-96673 over monospecific anti-CD47 approaches allows for the use of wild-type IgG1 Fc, which engages activating crystallizable fragment gamma receptors (FcγRs) to fully potentiate macrophages to engulf and destroy CD20+ cells, while sparing CD47+CD20- normal cells. The combined targeting of anti-CD20 and anti-CD47 results in enhanced anti- tumor activity compared to anti-CD20 targeting antibodies alone. Furthermore, preclinical studies have demonstrated that CC-96673 exhibits acceptable pharmacokinetic properties with a favorable toxicity profile in non-human primates. Collectively, these findings define CC-96673 as a promising CD47 × CD20 bispecific antibody that selectively destroys CD20+ cancer cells via enhanced phagocytosis and other effector functions.

Leaf wetting is often considered to have negative effects on plant function, such that wet environments may select for leaves with certain leaf surface, morphological, and architectural traits that reduce leaf wettability. However, there is growing recognition that leaf wetting can have positive effects. We measured variation in two traits, leaf drip tips and leaf water repellency, in a series of nine tropical forest communities occurring along a 3300-m elevation gradient in southern Peru. To extend this climatic gradient, we also assembled published leaf water repellency values from 17 additional sites. We then tested hypotheses for how these traits should vary as a function of climate. Contrary to expectations, we found that the proportion of species with drip tips did not increase with increasing precipitation. Instead, drip tips increased with increasing temperature. Moreover, leaf water repellency was very low in our sites and the global analysis indicated high repellency only in sites with low precipitation and temperatures. Our findings suggest that drip tips and repellency may not solely reflect the negative effects of wetting on plant function. Understanding the drivers of leaf wettability traits can provide insight into the effects of leaf wetting on plant, community, and ecosystem function.

Quantifying the relationship between tree diameter and height is a key component of efforts to estimate biomass and carbon stocks in tropical forests. Although substantial site-to-site variation in height-diameter allometries has been documented, the time consuming nature of measuring all tree heights in an inventory plot means that most studies do not include height, or else use generic pan-tropical or regional allometric equations to estimate height.Using a pan-tropical dataset of 73 plots where at least 150 trees had in-field ground-based height measurements, we examined how the number of trees sampled affects the performance of locally derived height-diameter allometries, and evaluated the performance of different methods for sampling trees for height measurement.Using cross-validation, we found that allometries constructed with just 20 locally measured values could often predict tree height with lower error than regional or climate-based allometries (mean reduction in prediction error = 0.46 m). The predictive performance of locally derived allometries improved with sample size, but with diminishing returns in performance gains when more than 40 trees were sampled. Estimates of stand-level biomass produced using local allometries to estimate tree height show no over- or under-estimation bias when compared with biomass estimates using field measured heights. We evaluated five strategies to sample trees for height measurement, and found that sampling strategies that included measuring the heights of the ten largest diameter trees in a plot outperformed (in terms of resulting in local height-diameter models with low height prediction error) entirely random or diameter size-class stratified approaches.Our results indicate that even limited sampling of heights can be used to refine height-diameter allometries. We recommend aiming for a conservative threshold of sampling 50 trees per location for height measurement, and including the ten trees with the largest diameter in this sample.

A prominent signal of the Anthropocene is the extinction and population reduction of the megabiota-the largest animals and plants on the planet. However, we lack a predictive framework for the sensitivity of megabiota during times of rapid global change and how they impact the functioning of ecosystems and the biosphere. Here, we extend metabolic scaling theory and use global simulation models to demonstrate that (i) megabiota are more prone to extinction due to human land use, hunting, and climate change; (ii) loss of megabiota has a negative impact on ecosystem metabolism and functioning; and (iii) their reduction has and will continue to significantly decrease biosphere functioning. Global simulations show that continued loss of large animals alone could lead to a 44%, 18% and 92% reduction in terrestrial heterotrophic biomass, metabolism, and fertility respectively. Our findings suggest that policies that emphasize the promotion of large trees and animals will have disproportionate impact on biodiversity, ecosystem processes, and climate mitigation.

We analysed the flora of 46 forest inventory plots (25 m x 100 m) in old growth forests from the Amazonian region to identify the role of environmental (topographic) and spatial variables (obtained using PCNM, Principal Coordinates of Neighbourhood Matrix analysis) for common and rare species. For the analyses, we used multiple partial regression to partition the specific effects of the topographic and spatial variables on the univariate data (standardised richness, total abundance and total biomass) and partial RDA (Redundancy Analysis) to partition these effects on composition (multivariate data) based on incidence, abundance and biomass. The different attributes (richness, abundance, biomass and composition based on incidence, abundance and biomass) used to study this metacommunity responded differently to environmental and spatial processes. Considering standardised richness, total abundance (univariate) and composition based on biomass, the results for common species differed from those obtained for all species. On the other hand, for total biomass (univariate) and for compositions based on incidence and abundance, there was a correspondence between the data obtained for the total community and for common species. Our data also show that in general, environmental and/or spatial components are important to explain the variability in tree communities for total and common species. However, with the exception of the total abundance, the environmental and spatial variables measured were insufficient to explain the attributes of the communities of rare species. These results indicate that predicting the attributes of rare tree species communities based on environmental and spatial variables is a substantial challenge. As the spatial component was relevant for several community attributes, our results demonstrate the importance of using a metacommunities approach when attempting to understand the main ecological processes underlying the diversity of tropical forest communities.

Using 2.046 botanically-inventoried tree plots across the largest tropical forest on Earth, we mapped tree species-diversity and tree species-richness at 0.1-degree resolution, and investigated drivers for diversity and richness. Using only location, stratified by forest type, as predictor, our spatial model, to the best of our knowledge, provides the most accurate map of tree diversity in Amazonia to date, explaining approximately 70% of the tree diversity and species-richness. Large soil-forest combinations determine a significant percentage of the variation in tree species-richness and tree alpha-diversity in Amazonian forest-plots. We suggest that the size and fragmentation of these systems drive their large-scale diversity patterns and hence local diversity. A model not using location but cumulative water deficit, tree density, and temperature seasonality explains 47% of the tree species-richness in the terra-firme forest in Amazonia. Over large areas across Amazonia, residuals of this relationship are small and poorly spatially structured, suggesting that much of the residual variation may be local. The Guyana Shield area has consistently negative residuals, showing that this area has lower tree species-richness than expected by our models. We provide extensive plot meta-data, including tree density, tree alpha-diversity and tree species-richness results and gridded maps at 0.1-degree resolution.

Trees structure the Earth's most biodiverse ecosystem, tropical forests. The vast number of tree species presents a formidable challenge to understanding these forests, including their response to environmental change, as very little is known about most tropical tree species. A focus on the common species may circumvent this challenge. Here we investigate abundance patterns of common tree species using inventory data on 1,003,805 trees with trunk diameters of at least 10 cm across 1,568 locations1-6 in closed-canopy, structurally intact old-growth tropical forests in Africa, Amazonia and Southeast Asia. We estimate that 2.2%, 2.2% and 2.3% of species comprise 50% of the tropical trees in these regions, respectively. Extrapolating across all closed-canopy tropical forests, we estimate that just 1,053 species comprise half of Earth's 800 billion tropical trees with trunk diameters of at least 10 cm. Despite differing biogeographic, climatic and anthropogenic histories7, we find notably consistent patterns of common species and species abundance distributions across the continents. This suggests that fundamental mechanisms of tree community assembly may apply to all tropical forests. Resampling analyses show that the most common species are likely to belong to a manageable list of known species, enabling targeted efforts to understand their ecology. Although they do not detract from the importance of rare species, our results open new opportunities to understand the world's most diverse forests, including modelling their response to environmental change, by focusing on the common species that constitute the majority of their trees.

Lineages tend to retain ecological characteristics of their ancestors through time. However, for some traits, selection during evolutionary history may have also played a role in determining trait values. To address the relative importance of these processes requires large-scale quantification of traits and evolutionary relationships among species. The Amazonian tree flora comprises a high diversity of angiosperm lineages and species with widely differing life-history characteristics, providing an excellent system to investigate the combined influences of evolutionary heritage and selection in determining trait variation. We used trait data related to the major axes of life-history variation among tropical trees (e.g. growth and mortality rates) from 577 inventory plots in closed-canopy forest, mapped onto a phylogenetic hypothesis spanning more than 300 genera including all major angiosperm clades to test for evolutionary constraints on traits. We found significant phylogenetic signal (PS) for all traits, consistent with evolutionarily related genera having more similar characteristics than expected by chance. Although there is also evidence for repeated evolution of pioneer and shade tolerant life-history strategies within independent lineages, the existence of significant PS allows clearer predictions of the links between evolutionary diversity, ecosystem function and the response of tropical forests to global change.

Species distribution models (SDMs) are widely used in ecology and conservation. Presence-only SDMs such as MaxEnt frequently use natural history collections (NHCs) as occurrence data, given their huge numbers and accessibility. NHCs are often spatially biased which may generate inaccuracies in SDMs. Here, we test how the distribution of NHCs and MaxEnt predictions relates to a spatial abundance model, based on a large plot dataset for Amazonian tree species, using inverse distance weighting (IDW). We also propose a new pipeline to deal with inconsistencies in NHCs and to limit the area of occupancy of the species. We found a significant but weak positive relationship between the distribution of NHCs and IDW for 66% of the species. The relationship between SDMs and IDW was also significant but weakly positive for 95% of the species, and sensitivity for both analyses was high. Furthermore, the pipeline removed half of the NHCs records. Presence-only SDM applications should consider this limitation, especially for large biodiversity assessments projects, when they are automatically generated without subsequent checking. Our pipeline provides a conservative estimate of a species' area of occupancy, within an area slightly larger than its extent of occurrence, compatible to e.g. IUCN red list assessments.

Insect herbivores have the potential to change both physical and chemical traits of their host plant. Although the impacts of herbivores on their hosts have been widely studied, experiments assessing changes in multiple leaf traits or functions simultaneously are still rare. We experimentally tested whether herbivory by winter moth (Operophtera brumata) caterpillars and mechanical leaf wounding changed leaf mass per area, leaf area, leaf carbon and nitrogen content, and the concentrations of 27 polyphenol compounds on oak (Quercus robur) leaves. To investigate how potential changes in the studied traits affect leaf functioning, we related the traits to the rates of leaf photosynthesis and respiration. Overall, we did not detect any clear effects of herbivory or mechanical leaf damage on the chemical or physical leaf traits, despite clear effect of herbivory on photosynthesis. Rather, the trait variation was primarily driven by variation between individual trees. Only leaf nitrogen content and a subset of the studied polyphenol compounds correlated with photosynthesis and leaf respiration. Our results suggest that in our study system, abiotic conditions related to the growth location, variation between tree individuals, and seasonal trends in plant physiology are more important than herbivory in determining the distribution and composition of leaf chemical and structural traits.

Forests are a substantial terrestrial carbon sink, but anthropogenic changes in land use and climate have considerably reduced the scale of this system1. Remote-sensing estimates to quantify carbon losses from global forests2-5 are characterized by considerable uncertainty and we lack a comprehensive ground-sourced evaluation to benchmark these estimates. Here we combine several ground-sourced6 and satellite-derived approaches2,7,8 to evaluate the scale of the global forest carbon potential outside agricultural and urban lands. Despite regional variation, the predictions demonstrated remarkable consistency at a global scale, with only a 12% difference between the ground-sourced and satellite-derived estimates. At present, global forest carbon storage is markedly under the natural potential, with a total deficit of 226 Gt (model range = 151-363 Gt) in areas with low human footprint. Most (61%, 139 Gt C) of this potential is in areas with existing forests, in which ecosystem protection can allow forests to recover to maturity. The remaining 39% (87 Gt C) of potential lies in regions in which forests have been removed or fragmented. Although forests cannot be a substitute for emissions reductions, our results support the idea2,3,9 that the conservation, restoration and sustainable management of diverse forests offer valuable contributions to meeting global climate and biodiversity targets.

One of the most fundamental questions in ecology is how many species inhabit the Earth. However, due to massive logistical and financial challenges and taxonomic difficulties connected to the species concept definition, the global numbers of species, including those of important and well-studied life forms such as trees, still remain largely unknown. Here, based on global ground-sourced data, we estimate the total tree species richness at global, continental, and biome levels. Our results indicate that there are ∼73,000 tree species globally, among which ∼9,000 tree species are yet to be discovered. Roughly 40% of undiscovered tree species are in South America. Moreover, almost one-third of all tree species to be discovered may be rare, with very low populations and limited spatial distribution (likely in remote tropical lowlands and mountains). These findings highlight the vulnerability of global forest biodiversity to anthropogenic changes in land use and climate, which disproportionately threaten rare species and thus, global tree richness.

Old-growth temperate rainforests are, per unit area, the largest and most long-lived stores of carbon in the terrestrial biosphere, but their carbon dynamics have rarely been described. The endangered Fitzroya cupressoides forests of southern South America include stands that are probably the oldest dense forest stands in the world, with long-lived trees and high standing biomass. We assess and compare aboveground biomass, and provide the first estimates of net primary productivity (NPP), carbon allocation and mean wood residence time in medium-age stands in the Alerce Costero National Park (AC) in the Coastal Range and in old-growth forests in the Alerce Andino National Park (AA) in the Andean Cordillera. Aboveground live biomass was 113-114 Mg C ha(-1) and 448-517 Mg C ha(-1) in AC and AA, respectively. Aboveground productivity was 3.35-3.36 Mg C ha(-1) year(-1) in AC and 2.22-2.54 Mg C ha(-1) year(-1) in AA, values generally lower than others reported for temperate wet forests worldwide, mainly due to the low woody growth of Fitzroya. NPP was 4.21-4.24 and 3.78-4.10 Mg C ha(-1) year(-1) in AC and AA, respectively. Estimated mean wood residence time was a minimum of 539-640 years for the whole forest in the Andes and 1368-1393 years for only Fitzroya in this site. Our biomass estimates for the Andes place these ecosystems among the most massive forests in the world. Differences in biomass production between sites seem mostly apparent as differences in allocation rather than productivity. Residence time estimates for Fitzroya are the highest reported for any species and carbon dynamics in these forests are the slowest reported for wet forests worldwide. Although primary productivity is low in Fitzroya forests, they probably act as ongoing biomass carbon sinks on long-term timescales due to their low mortality rates and exceptionally long residence times that allow biomass to be accumulated for millennia.

The responses of tropical forests to environmental change are critical uncertainties in predicting the future impacts of climate change. The positive phase of the 2015-2016 El Niño Southern Oscillation resulted in unprecedented heat and low precipitation in the tropics with substantial impacts on the global carbon cycle. The role of African tropical forests is uncertain as their responses to short-term drought and temperature anomalies have yet to be determined using on-the-ground measurements. African tropical forests may be particularly sensitive because they exist in relatively dry conditions compared with Amazonian or Asian forests, or they may be more resistant because of an abundance of drought-adapted species. Here, we report responses of structurally intact old-growth lowland tropical forests inventoried within the African Tropical Rainforest Observatory Network (AfriTRON). We use 100 long-term inventory plots from six countries each measured at least twice prior to and once following the 2015-2016 El Niño event. These plots experienced the highest temperatures and driest conditions on record. The record temperature did not significantly reduce carbon gains from tree growth or significantly increase carbon losses from tree mortality, but the record drought did significantly decrease net carbon uptake. Overall, the long-term biomass increase of these forests was reduced due to the El Niño event, but these plots remained a live biomass carbon sink (0.51 ± 0.40 Mg C ha-1 y-1) despite extreme environmental conditions. Our analyses, while limited to African tropical forests, suggest they may be more resistant to climatic extremes than Amazonian and Asian forests.

It is largely unknown how South America's Andean forests affect the global carbon cycle, and thus regulate climate change. Here, we measure aboveground carbon dynamics over the past two decades in 119 monitoring plots spanning a range of >3000 m elevation across the subtropical and tropical Andes. Our results show that Andean forests act as strong sinks for aboveground carbon (0.67 ± 0.08 Mg C ha-1 y-1) and have a high potential to serve as future carbon refuges. Aboveground carbon dynamics of Andean forests are driven by abiotic and biotic factors, such as climate and size-dependent mortality of trees. The increasing aboveground carbon stocks offset the estimated C emissions due to deforestation between 2003 and 2014, resulting in a net total uptake of 0.027 Pg C y-1. Reducing deforestation will increase Andean aboveground carbon stocks, facilitate upward species migrations, and allow for recovery of biomass losses due to climate change.

Tropical forests are global centres of biodiversity and carbon storage. Many tropical countries aspire to protect forest to fulfil biodiversity and climate mitigation policy targets, but the conservation strategies needed to achieve these two functions depend critically on the tropical forest tree diversity-carbon storage relationship. Assessing this relationship is challenging due to the scarcity of inventories where carbon stocks in aboveground biomass and species identifications have been simultaneously and robustly quantified. Here, we compile a unique pan-tropical dataset of 360 plots located in structurally intact old-growth closed-canopy forest, surveyed using standardised methods, allowing a multi-scale evaluation of diversity-carbon relationships in tropical forests. Diversity-carbon relationships among all plots at 1 ha scale across the tropics are absent, and within continents are either weak (Asia) or absent (Amazonia, Africa). A weak positive relationship is detectable within 1 ha plots, indicating that diversity effects in tropical forests may be scale dependent. The absence of clear diversity-carbon relationships at scales relevant to conservation planning means that carbon-centred conservation strategies will inevitably miss many high diversity ecosystems. As tropical forests can have any combination of tree diversity and carbon stocks both require explicit consideration when optimising policies to manage tropical carbon and biodiversity.

Tracking changes in biodiversity through time requires an understanding of the relationship between modern diversity and how this diversity is preserved in the fossil record. Fossil pollen is one way in which past vegetation diversity can be reconstructed. However, there is limited understanding of modern pollen-vegetation diversity relationships from biodiverse tropical ecosystems. Here, pollen (palynological) richness and diversity (Hill N 1) are compared with vegetation richness and diversity from forest and savannah ecosystems in the New World and Old World tropics (Neotropics and Palaeotropics). Modern pollen data were obtained from artificial pollen traps deployed in 1-ha vegetation study plots from which vegetation inventories had been completed in Bolivia and Ghana. Pollen counts were obtained from 15 to 22 traps per plot, and aggregated pollen sums for each plot were > 2,500. The palynological richness/diversity values from the Neotropics were moist evergreen forest = 86/6.8, semi-deciduous dry forest = 111/21.9, wooded savannah = 138/31.5, and from the Palaeotropics wet evergreen forest = 144/28.3, semi-deciduous moist forest = 104/4.4, forest-savannah transition = 121/14.1; the corresponding vegetation richness/diversity was 100/36.7, 80/38.7 and 71/39.4 (Neotropics), and 101/54.8, 87/45.5 and 71/34.5 (Palaeotropics). No consistent relationship was found between palynological richness/diversity, and plot vegetation richness/diversity, due to the differential influence of other factors such as landscape diversity, pollination strategy, and pollen source area. Palynological richness exceeded vegetation richness, while pollen diversity was lower than vegetation diversity. The relatively high global diversity of tropical vegetation was found to be reflected in the pollen rain.