Arctic sea ice extent (SIE) is declining at an accelerating rate with a wide range of ecological consequences. However, determining sea ice effects on tundra vegetation remains a challenge. In this study, we examined the universality or lack thereof in tundra shrub growth responses to changes in SIE and summer climate across the Pan-Arctic, taking advantage of 23 tundra shrub-ring chronologies from 19 widely distributed sites (56°N to 83°N). We show a clear divergence in shrub growth responses to SIE that began in the mid-1990s, with 39% of the chronologies showing declines and 57% showing increases in radial growth (decreasers and increasers, respectively). Structural equation models revealed that declining SIE was associated with rising air temperature and precipitation for increasers and with increasingly dry conditions for decreasers. Decreasers tended to be from areas of the Arctic with lower summer precipitation and their growth decline was related to decreases in the standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index. Our findings suggest that moisture limitation, associated with declining SIE, might inhibit the positive effects of warming on shrub growth over a considerable part of the terrestrial Arctic, thereby complicating predictions of vegetation change and future tundra productivity.

A major challenge in predicting species' distributional responses to climate change involves resolving interactions between abiotic and biotic factors in structuring ecological communities. This challenge reflects the classical conceptualization of species' regional distributions as simultaneously constrained by climatic conditions, while by necessity emerging from local biotic interactions. A ubiquitous pattern in nature illustrates this dichotomy: potentially competing species covary positively at large scales but negatively at local scales. Recent theory poses a resolution to this conundrum by predicting roles of both abiotic and biotic factors in covariation of species at both scales, but empirical tests have lagged such developments. We conducted a 15-y warming and herbivore-exclusion experiment to investigate drivers of opposing patterns of covariation between two codominant arctic shrub species at large and local scales. Climatic conditions and biotic exploitation mediated both positive covariation between these species at the landscape scale and negative covariation between them locally. Furthermore, covariation between the two species conferred resilience in ecosystem carbon uptake. This study thus lends empirical support to developing theoretical solutions to a long-standing ecological puzzle, while highlighting its relevance to understanding community compositional responses to climate change.