A novel orthobunyavirus, Bellavista virus, was isolated from Culex (Melanoconion) portesi mosquitoes in the Bellavista neighborhood of Iquitos, Peru, in 2009. The assembled segment L, M, and S sequences of strain PRD0552 are 6,950, 4,469, and 1,256 bases in length, respectively, comprising complete protein-coding sequences and partial terminal untranslated sequences.

Interannual climate variability patterns associated with the El Niño-Southern Oscillation phenomenon result in climate and environmental anomaly conditions in specific regions worldwide that directly favor outbreaks and/or amplification of variety of diseases of public health concern including chikungunya, hantavirus, Rift Valley fever, cholera, plague, and Zika. We analyzed patterns of some disease outbreaks during the strong 2015-2016 El Niño event in relation to climate anomalies derived from satellite measurements. Disease outbreaks in multiple El Niño-connected regions worldwide (including Southeast Asia, Tanzania, western US, and Brazil) followed shifts in rainfall, temperature, and vegetation in which both drought and flooding occurred in excess (14-81% precipitation departures from normal). These shifts favored ecological conditions appropriate for pathogens and their vectors to emerge and propagate clusters of diseases activity in these regions. Our analysis indicates that intensity of disease activity in some ENSO-teleconnected regions were approximately 2.5-28% higher during years with El Niño events than those without. Plague in Colorado and New Mexico as well as cholera in Tanzania were significantly associated with above normal rainfall (p < 0.05); while dengue in Brazil and southeast Asia were significantly associated with above normal land surface temperature (p < 0.05). Routine and ongoing global satellite monitoring of key climate variable anomalies calibrated to specific regions could identify regions at risk for emergence and propagation of disease vectors. Such information can provide sufficient lead-time for outbreak prevention and potentially reduce the burden and spread of ecologically coupled diseases.

A wide range of research has promised new tools for forecasting infectious disease dynamics, but little of that research is currently being applied in practice, because tools do not address key public health needs, do not produce probabilistic forecasts, have not been evaluated on external data, or do not provide sufficient forecast skill to be useful. We developed an open collaborative forecasting challenge to assess probabilistic forecasts for seasonal epidemics of dengue, a major global public health problem. Sixteen teams used a variety of methods and data to generate forecasts for 3 epidemiological targets (peak incidence, the week of the peak, and total incidence) over 8 dengue seasons in Iquitos, Peru and San Juan, Puerto Rico. Forecast skill was highly variable across teams and targets. While numerous forecasts showed high skill for midseason situational awareness, early season skill was low, and skill was generally lowest for high incidence seasons, those for which forecasts would be most valuable. A comparison of modeling approaches revealed that average forecast skill was lower for models including biologically meaningful data and mechanisms and that both multimodel and multiteam ensemble forecasts consistently outperformed individual model forecasts. Leveraging these insights, data, and the forecasting framework will be critical to improve forecast skill and the application of forecasts in real time for epidemic preparedness and response. Moreover, key components of this project-integration with public health needs, a common forecasting framework, shared and standardized data, and open participation-can help advance infectious disease forecasting beyond dengue.

Arthropod-borne viruses (arboviruses) are among the most common agents of human febrile illness worldwide and the most important emerging pathogens, causing multiple notable epidemics of human disease over recent decades. Despite the public health relevance, little is know about the geographic distribution, relative impact, and risk factors for arbovirus infection in many regions of the world. Our objectives were to describe the arboviruses associated with acute undifferentiated febrile illness in participating clinics in four countries in South America and to provide detailed epidemiological analysis of arbovirus infection in Iquitos, Peru, where more extensive monitoring was conducted.

Understanding the burden and risk factors of dengue virus (DENV) infection in Puerto Rico is important for the prevention of dengue in local, traveler and military populations. Using sera from the Department of Defense Serum Repository, we estimated the prevalence and predictors of DENV seropositivity in those who had served in Puerto Rico, stratified by birth or prior residence ("birth/residence") in dengue-endemic versus non-endemic regions. We selected sera collected in early 2015 from 500 U.S. military members, a time-point also permitting detection of early cryptic Zika virus (ZIKV) circulation. 87.2% were born or resided in a DENV-endemic area before their military service in Puerto Rico. A high-throughput, flow-cytometry-based neutralization assay was employed to screen sera for ZIKV and DENV neutralizing antibodies, and confirmatory testing was done by plaque-reduction neutralization test (PRNT). We identified one Puerto Rico resident who seroconverted to ZIKV by June 2015, suggesting cryptic ZIKV circulation in Puerto Rico at least 4 months before the first reported cases. A further six PRNT-positive presumptive ZIKV infections which were resolved as DENV infections only by the use of paired sera. We noted 66.8% of the total study sample was DENV seropositive by early 2015. Logistic regression analysis indicated that birth/residence in a dengue non-endemic region (before military service in Puerto Rico) was associated with a lower odds of DENV exposure by January-June 2015 (aOR = 0.28, p = 0.001). Among those with birth/residence in a non-endemic country, we noted moderate evidence to support increase in odds of DENV exposure for each year of military service in Puerto Rico (aOR = 1.58, p = 0.06), but no association with age. In those with birth/residence in dengue-endemic regions (before military service in Puerto Rico), we noted that age (aOR = 1.04, p = 0.02), rather than duration of Puerto Rico service, was associated with dengue seropositivity, suggesting earlier lifetime DENV exposure. Our findings provide insights into the burden and predictors of DENV infection in local, traveler and military populations in Puerto Rico. Our study also highlights substantial PRNT ZIKV false-positivity when paired sera are not available, even during periods of very low ZIKV prevalence.

Epidemic forecasting and prediction tools have the potential to provide actionable information in the midst of emerging epidemics. While numerous predictive studies were published during the 2016-2017 Zika Virus (ZIKV) pandemic, it remains unknown how timely, reproducible, and actionable the information produced by these studies was.

Group C orthobunyaviruses (GRCVs) are a complex of viruses in the genus Orthobunyavirus and are associated with human febrile disease in tropical and subtropical areas of South and Central America. While numerous GRCVs have been isolated from mosquitoes, animals, and humans, genetic analysis of these viruses is limited. In this study, we characterized 65 GRCV isolates from febrile patients identified through clinic-based surveillance in the northern and southern Peruvian Amazon. A 500 base pair region of the S segment and 750 base pair regions of the M and L segments were sequenced. Pairwise sequence analysis of the clinical isolates showed nucleotide identities ranging from 68% to 100% and deduced amino acid sequence identities ranging from 72% to 100%. Sequences were compared with reference strains of the following GRCVs: Caraparu virus (CARV), Murutucu virus (MURV), Oriboca virus (ORIV), Marituba virus (MTBV), Itaqui virus (ITQV), Apeu virus (APEUV), and Madrid virus (MADV). Sequence comparison of clinical isolates with the prototype strains based on the S and L segments identified two clades; clade I included isolates with high genetic association with CARV-MADV, and clade II included isolates with high genetic association with MURV, ORIV, APEUV, and MTBV. Genetic relationships based on the M segment were at time inconsistent with those based on the S and L segments. However, clade groupings based on the M segment were highly consistent with relationships based on microneutralization assays. These results advance our understanding of the genetic and serologic relationships of GRCVs circulating in the Peruvian Amazon.

Group C orthobunyaviruses (family Bunyaviridae, genus Orthobunyavirus), discovered in the 1950s, are vector-borne human pathogens in the Americas. Currently there is a gap in genomic information for group C viruses. In this study, we obtained complete coding region sequences of reference strains of Caraparu (CARV), Oriboca (ORIV), Marituba (MTBV) and Madrid (MADV) viruses, and five clinical isolates from Peru and Bolivia, using an unbiased de novo approach consisting of random reverse transcription, random anchored PCR amplification, and high throughput pyrosequencing. The small, medium, and large segments encode for a 235 amino acid nucleocapsid protein, an approximately 1430 amino acid surface glycoprotein polyprotein precursor, and a 2248 amino acid RNA-dependent RNA polymerase, respectively. Additionally, the S segment encodes for an 83 amino acid non-structural protein, although this protein is truncated or silenced in some isolates. Phylogenetically, three clinical isolates clustered with CARV, one clustered with MTBV, and one isolate appeared to be a reassortant or a genetic drift resulted from the high variability of the medium segment which was also seen in a few other orthobunyaviruses. These data represent the first complete coding region sequences for this serocomplex of pathogenic orthobunyaviruses. The genome-wide phylogeny of reference strains is consistent with the antigenic properties of the viruses reported in the original serological studies conducted in the 1960s. Comparative analysis of conserved protein regions across group C virus strains and the other orthobunyavirus groups revealed that these group C viruses contain characteristic domains of potential structural and functional significance. Our results provide the basis for the developments of diagnostics, further genetic analyses, and future epidemiologic studies of group C viruses.

Dengue virus (DENV) infection can range in severity from mild dengue fever (DF) to severe dengue hemorrhagic fever (DHF) or dengue shock syndrome (DSS). Changes in host gene expression, temporally through the progression of DENV infection, especially during the early days, remains poorly characterized. Early diagnostic markers for DHF are also lacking.

To better describe the genetic diversity of hantaviruses associated with human illness in South America, we screened blood samples from febrile patients in Chapare Province in central Bolivia during 2008-2009 for recent hantavirus infection. Hantavirus RNA was detected in 3 patients, including 1 who died. Partial RNA sequences of small and medium segments from the 3 patients were most closely related to Andes virus lineages but distinct (<90% nt identity) from reported strains. A survey for IgG against hantaviruses among residents of Chapare Province indicated that 12.2% of the population had past exposure to >1 hantaviruses; the highest prevalence was among agricultural workers. Because of the high level of human exposure to hantavirus strains and the severity of resulting disease, additional studies are warranted to determine the reservoirs, ecologic range, and public health effect of this novel strain of hantavirus.

Comprehensive, longitudinal field studies that monitor both disease and vector populations for dengue viruses are urgently needed as a pre-requisite for developing locally adaptable prevention programs or to appropriately test and license new vaccines.

Early diagnosis of dengue virus (DENV) infection can improve clinical outcomes by ensuring close follow-up, initiating appropriate supportive therapies and raising awareness to the potential of hemorrhage or shock. Non-structural glycoprotein-1 (NS1) has proven to be a useful biomarker for early diagnosis of dengue. A number of rapid diagnostic tests (RDTs) and enzyme-linked immunosorbent assays (ELISAs) targeting NS1 antigen (Ag) are now commercially available. Here we evaluated these tests using a well-characterized panel of clinical samples to determine their effectiveness for early diagnosis.

Much uncertainty remains about the origin and public health implications of livestock-associated methicillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus (LA-MRSA). This study aimed to investigate the occurrence and prevalence of MRSA in general and LA-MRSA in particular in pigs and farm workers in five states. We collected nasal swabs from pigs and farm workers at 45 swine herds (21 antibiotic-free herds; 24 conventional herds) in Illinois, Iowa, Minnesota, North Carolina and Ohio. MRSA was isolated from 50 of 1085 pigs (4.6%) and 31 of 148 (20.9%) of farm workers. MRSA-positive pigs and people were clustered in four conventional swine farms in Iowa and Illinois. Based on genotyping, spa type t034, a common livestock associated variant, was predominant among both human and swine isolates. These results confirm the presence of LA-MRSA in pigs and swine farm workers in the USA, but the prevalence found is relatively low compared with European studies.

Enzootic strains of Venezuelan equine encephalitis virus (VEEV) have been isolated from febrile patients in the Peruvian Amazon Basin at low but consistent levels since the early 1990s. Through a clinic-based febrile surveillance program, we detected an outbreak of VEEV infections in Iquitos, Peru, in the first half of 2006. The majority of these patients resided within urban areas of Iquitos, with no report of recent travel outside the city. To characterize the risk factors for VEEV infection within the city, an antibody prevalence study was carried out in a geographically stratified sample of urban areas of Iquitos. Additionally, entomological surveys were conducted to determine if previously incriminated vectors of enzootic VEEV were present within the city. We found that greater than 23% of Iquitos residents carried neutralizing antibodies against VEEV, with significant associations between increased antibody prevalence and age, occupation, mosquito net use, and overnight travel. Furthermore, potential vector mosquitoes were widely distributed across the city. Our results suggest that while VEEV infection is more common in rural areas, transmission also occurs within urban areas of Iquitos, and that further studies are warranted to identify the precise vectors and reservoirs involved in urban VEEV transmission.

Improving our understanding of Mayaro virus (MAYV) ecology is critical to guide surveillance and risk assessment. We conducted a PRISMA-adherent systematic review of the published and grey literature to identify potential arthropod vectors and non-human animal reservoirs of MAYV. We searched PubMed/MEDLINE, Embase, Web of Science, SciELO and grey-literature sources including PAHO databases and dissertation repositories. Studies were included if they assessed MAYV virological/immunological measured occurrence in field-caught, domestic, or sentinel animals or in field-caught arthropods. We conducted an animal seroprevalence meta-analysis using a random effects model. We compiled granular georeferenced maps of non-human MAYV occurrence and graded the quality of the studies using a customized framework. Overall, 57 studies were eligible out of 1523 screened, published between the years 1961 and 2020. Seventeen studies reported MAYV positivity in wild mammals, birds, or reptiles and five studies reported MAYV positivity in domestic animals. MAYV positivity was reported in 12 orders of wild-caught vertebrates, most frequently in the orders Charadriiformes and Primate. Sixteen studies detected MAYV in wild-caught mosquito genera including Haemagogus, Aedes, Culex, Psorophora, Coquillettidia, and Sabethes. Vertebrate animals or arthropods with MAYV were detected in Brazil, Panama, Peru, French Guiana, Colombia, Trinidad, Venezuela, Argentina, and Paraguay. Among non-human vertebrates, the Primate order had the highest pooled seroprevalence at 13.1% (95% CI: 4.3-25.1%). From the three most studied primate genera we found the highest seroprevalence was in Alouatta (32.2%, 95% CI: 0.0-79.2%), followed by Callithrix (17.8%, 95% CI: 8.6-28.5%), and Cebus/Sapajus (3.7%, 95% CI: 0.0-11.1%). We further found that MAYV occurs in a wide range of vectors beyond Haemagogus spp. The quality of evidence behind these findings was variable and prompts calls for standardization of reporting of arbovirus occurrence. These findings support further risk emergence prediction, guide field surveillance efforts, and prompt further in-vivo studies to better define the ecological drivers of MAYV maintenance and potential for emergence.