The RV144 clinical trial showed the partial efficacy of a vaccine regimen with an estimated vaccine efficacy (VE) of 31% for protecting low-risk Thai volunteers against acquisition of HIV-1. The impact of vaccine-induced immune responses can be investigated through sieve analysis of HIV-1 breakthrough infections (infected vaccine and placebo recipients). A V1/V2-targeted comparison of the genomes of HIV-1 breakthrough viruses identified two V2 amino acid sites that differed between the vaccine and placebo groups. Here we extended the V1/V2 analysis to the entire HIV-1 genome using an array of methods based on individual sites, k-mers and genes/proteins. We identified 56 amino acid sites or "signatures" and 119 k-mers that differed between the vaccine and placebo groups. Of those, 19 sites and 38 k-mers were located in the regions comprising the RV144 vaccine (Env-gp120, Gag, and Pro). The nine signature sites in Env-gp120 were significantly enriched for known antibody-associated sites (p = 0.0021). In particular, site 317 in the third variable loop (V3) overlapped with a hotspot of antibody recognition, and sites 369 and 424 were linked to CD4 binding site neutralization. The identified signature sites significantly covaried with other sites across the genome (mean = 32.1) more than did non-signature sites (mean = 0.9) (p < 0.0001), suggesting functional and/or structural relevance of the signature sites. Since signature sites were not preferentially restricted to the vaccine immunogens and because most of the associations were insignificant following correction for multiple testing, we predict that few of the genetic differences are strongly linked to the RV144 vaccine-induced immune pressure. In addition to presenting results of the first complete-genome analysis of the breakthrough infections in the RV144 trial, this work describes a set of statistical methods and tools applicable to analysis of breakthrough infection genomes in general vaccine efficacy trials for diverse pathogens.

The highly transmissible B.1.1.7 variant of SARS-CoV-2, first identified in the United Kingdom, has gained a foothold across the world. Using S gene target failure (SGTF) and SARS-CoV-2 genomic sequencing, we investigated the prevalence and dynamics of this variant in the United States (US), tracking it back to its early emergence. We found that, while the fraction of B.1.1.7 varied by state, the variant increased at a logistic rate with a roughly weekly doubling rate and an increased transmission of 40%-50%. We revealed several independent introductions of B.1.1.7 into the US as early as late November 2020, with community transmission spreading it to most states within months. We show that the US is on a similar trajectory as other countries where B.1.1.7 became dominant, requiring immediate and decisive action to minimize COVID-19 morbidity and mortality.

Massively parallel sequencing (MPS) technologies, such as 454-pyrosequencing, allow for the identification of variants in sequence populations at lower levels than consensus sequencing and most single-template Sanger sequencing experiments. We sought to determine if the greater depth of population sampling attainable using MPS technology would allow detection of minor variants in HIV founder virus populations very early in infection in instances where Sanger sequencing detects only a single variant. We compared single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) during acute HIV-1 infection from 32 subjects using both single template Sanger and 454-pyrosequencing. Pyrosequences from a median of 2400 viral templates per subject and encompassing 40% of the HIV-1 genome, were compared to a median of five individually amplified near full-length viral genomes sequenced using Sanger technology. There was no difference in the consensus nucleotide sequences over the 3.6kb compared in 84% of the subjects infected with single founders and 33% of subjects infected with multiple founder variants: among the subjects with disagreements, mismatches were found in less than 1% of the sites evaluated (of a total of nearly 117,000 sites across all subjects). The majority of the SNPs observed only in pyrosequences were present at less than 2% of the subject's viral sequence population. These results demonstrate the utility of the Sanger approach for study of early HIV infection and provide guidance regarding the design, utility and limitations of population sequencing from variable template sources, and emphasize parameters for improving the interpretation of massively parallel sequencing data to address important questions regarding target sequence evolution.

As of January of 2021, the highly transmissible B.1.1.7 variant of SARS-CoV-2, which was first identified in the United Kingdom (U.K.), has gained a strong foothold across the world. Because of the sudden and rapid rise of B.1.1.7, we investigated the prevalence and growth dynamics of this variant in the United States (U.S.), tracking it back to its early emergence and onward local transmission. We found that the RT-qPCR testing anomaly of S gene target failure (SGTF), first observed in the U.K., was a reliable proxy for B.1.1.7 detection. We sequenced 212 B.1.1.7 SARS-CoV-2 genomes collected from testing facilities in the U.S. from December 2020 to January 2021. We found that while the fraction of B.1.1.7 among SGTF samples varied by state, detection of the variant increased at a logistic rate similar to those observed elsewhere, with a doubling rate of a little over a week and an increased transmission rate of 35-45%. By performing time-aware Bayesian phylodynamic analyses, we revealed several independent introductions of B.1.1.7 into the U.S. as early as late November 2020, with onward community transmission enabling the variant to spread to at least 30 states as of January 2021. Our study shows that the U.S. is on a similar trajectory as other countries where B.1.1.7 rapidly became the dominant SARS-CoV-2 variant, requiring immediate and decisive action to minimize COVID-19 morbidity and mortality.

The long-term evolutionary history of many viral lineages is poorly understood. Novel sources of ancient DNA combined with phylogenetic analyses can provide insight into the time scale of virus evolution. Here we report viral sequences from ancient North American packrat middens. We screened samples up to 27,000-years old and found evidence of papillomavirus (PV) infection in Neotoma cinerea (Bushy-tailed packrat). Phylogenetic analysis placed the PV sequences in a clade with other previously published PV sequences isolated from rodents. Concordance between the host and virus tree topologies along with a correlation in branch lengths suggests a shared evolutionary history between rodents and PVs. Based on host divergence times, PVs have likely been circulating in rodents for at least 17 million years. These results have implications for our understanding of PV evolution and for further research with ancient DNA from Neotoma middens.

The RV144 trial demonstrated 31% vaccine efficacy at preventing human immunodeficiency virus (HIV)-1 infection. Antibodies against the HIV-1 envelope variable loops 1 and 2 (Env V1 and V2) correlated inversely with infection risk. We proposed that vaccine-induced immune responses against V1/V2 would have a selective effect against, or sieve, HIV-1 breakthrough viruses. A total of 936 HIV-1 genome sequences from 44 vaccine and 66 placebo recipients were examined. We show that vaccine-induced immune responses were associated with two signatures in V2 at amino acid positions 169 and 181. Vaccine efficacy against viruses matching the vaccine at position 169 was 48% (confidence interval 18% to 66%; P = 0.0036), whereas vaccine efficacy against viruses mismatching the vaccine at position 181 was 78% (confidence interval 35% to 93%; P = 0.0028). Residue 169 is in a cationic glycosylated region recognized by broadly neutralizing and RV144-derived antibodies. The predicted distance between the two signature sites (21 ± 7 Å) and their match/mismatch dichotomy indicate that multiple factors may be involved in the protection observed in RV144. Genetic signatures of RV144 vaccination in V2 complement the finding of an association between high V1/V2-binding antibodies and reduced risk of HIV-1 acquisition, and provide evidence that vaccine-induced V2 responses plausibly had a role in the partial protection conferred by the RV144 regimen.

The COVID-19 pandemic has led to a rapid accumulation of SARS-CoV-2 genomes, enabling genomic epidemiology on local and global scales. Collections of genomes from resources such as GISAID must be subsampled to enable computationally feasible phylogenetic and other analyses. We present genome-sampler, a software package that supports sampling collections of viral genomes across multiple axes including time of genome isolation, location of genome isolation, and viral diversity. The software is modular in design so that these or future sampling approaches can be applied independently and combined (or replaced with a random sampling approach) to facilitate custom workflows and benchmarking. genome-sampler is written as a QIIME 2 plugin, ensuring that its application is fully reproducible through QIIME 2's unique retrospective data provenance tracking system. genome-sampler can be installed in a conda environment on macOS or Linux systems. A complete default pipeline is available through a Snakemake workflow, so subsampling can be achieved using a single command. genome-sampler is open source, free for all to use, and available at https://caporasolab.us/genome-sampler. We hope that this will facilitate SARS-CoV-2 research and support evaluation of viral genome sampling approaches for genomic epidemiology.

Accurate understanding of the global spread of emerging viruses is critical for public health responses and for anticipating and preventing future outbreaks. Here we elucidate when, where, and how the earliest sustained severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) transmission networks became established in Europe and North America. Our results suggest that rapid early interventions successfully prevented early introductions of the virus from taking hold in Germany and the United States. Other, later introductions of the virus from China to both Italy and Washington state, United States, founded the earliest sustained European and North America transmission networks. Our analyses demonstrate the effectiveness of public health measures in preventing onward transmission and show that intensive testing and contact tracing could have prevented SARS-CoV-2 outbreaks from becoming established in these regions.

In December of 2019, a novel coronavirus, SARS-CoV-2, emerged in the city of Wuhan, China, causing severe morbidity and mortality. Since then, the virus has swept across the globe, causing millions of confirmed infections and hundreds of thousands of deaths. To better understand the nature of the pandemic and the introduction and spread of the virus in Arizona, we sequenced viral genomes from clinical samples tested at the TGen North Clinical Laboratory, the Arizona Department of Health Services, and those collected as part of community surveillance projects at Arizona State University and the University of Arizona. Phylogenetic analysis of 84 genomes from across Arizona revealed a minimum of 11 distinct introductions inferred to have occurred during February and March. We show that >80% of our sequences descend from strains that were initially circulating widely in Europe but have since dominated the outbreak in the United States. In addition, we show that the first reported case of community transmission in Arizona descended from the Washington state outbreak that was discovered in late February. Notably, none of the observed transmission clusters are epidemiologically linked to the original travel-related case in the state, suggesting successful early isolation and quarantine. Finally, we use molecular clock analyses to demonstrate a lack of identifiable, widespread cryptic transmission in Arizona prior to the middle of February 2020.IMPORTANCE As the COVID-19 pandemic swept across the United States, there was great differential impact on local and regional communities. One of the earliest and hardest hit regions was in New York, while at the same time Arizona (for example) had low incidence. That situation has changed dramatically, with Arizona now having the highest rate of disease increase in the country. Understanding the roots of the pandemic during the initial months is essential as the pandemic continues and reaches new heights. Genomic analysis and phylogenetic modeling of SARS-COV-2 in Arizona can help to reconstruct population composition and predict the earliest undetected introductions. This foundational work represents the basis for future analysis and understanding as the pandemic continues.

Upon infection, DNA viruses can be sensed by pattern recognition receptors (PRRs), leading to the activation of type I and III interferons to block infection. Therefore, viruses must inhibit these signaling pathways, avoid being detected, or both. Papillomavirus virions are trafficked from early endosomes to the Golgi apparatus and wait for the onset of mitosis to complete nuclear entry. This unique subcellular trafficking strategy avoids detection by cytoplasmic PRRs, a property that may contribute to the establishment of infection. However, as the capsid uncoats within acidic endosomal compartments, the viral DNA may be exposed to detection by Toll-like receptor 9 (TLR9). In this study, we characterized two new papillomaviruses from bats and used molecular archeology to demonstrate that their genomes altered their nucleotide compositions to avoid detection by TLR9, providing evidence that TLR9 acts as a PRR during papillomavirus infection. Furthermore, we showed that TLR9, like other components of the innate immune system, is under evolutionary selection in bats, providing the first direct evidence for coevolution between papillomaviruses and their hosts. Finally, we demonstrated that the cancer-associated human papillomaviruses show a reduction in CpG dinucleotides within a TLR9 recognition complex. IMPORTANCE Viruses must avoid detection by the innate immune system. In this study, we characterized two new papillomaviruses from bats and used molecular archeology to demonstrate that their genomes altered their nucleotide compositions to avoid detection by TLR9, providing evidence that TLR9 acts as a PRR during papillomavirus infection. Furthermore, we demonstrated that TLR9, like other components of the innate immune system, is under evolutionary selection in bats, providing the first direct evidence for coevolution between papillomaviruses and their hosts.