We investigated the association between early tumor shrinkage (ETS) and treatment outcome in patients with hepatocellular carcinoma treated with lenvatinib (LEN). A retrospective analysis was performed in 104 patients. ETS was defined as tumor shrinkage at the first evaluation in the sum of target lesions' longest diameters from baseline according to the Response Evaluation Criteria in Solid Tumors (RECIST). The median overall survival (OS) was not reached, whereas the median progression-free survival (PFS) was 5.0 months. The receiver operating characteristic curve analysis in differentiating long-term responders (PFS ≥ 5.0 months) from short-term responders (PFS < 5.0 months) revealed an ETS cut-off value of 10%. ETS ≥ 10% was significantly correlated with better PFS and OS compared with ETS < 10%. Additionally, ETS ≥ 10% showed a better discrimination ability on prognosis compared with modified RECIST-based objective response at the first evaluation. Multivariate analysis confirmed ETS ≥ 10% as an independent predictor of better OS, as well as a Child-Pugh score of 5 and macrovascular invasion. In conclusion, ETS ≥ 10% was strongly associated with outcome in patients treated with LEN. This biomarker could allow earlier assessment of the treatment response and guide treatment decision-making for HCC.

Non-alcoholic steatohepatitis (NASH) has become a serious public health problem associated with metabolic syndrome. The mechanisms by which NASH induces hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) remain unknown. There are no approved drugs for treating NASH or preventing NASH-induced HCC. We used a genetic mouse model in which HCC was induced via high-fat diet feeding. This mouse model strongly resembles human NASH-induced HCC. The natural product honokiol (HNK) was tested for its preventative effects against NASH progression to HCC. Then, to clarify the mechanisms underlying HCC development, human HCC cells were treated with HNK. Human clinical specimens were also analyzed to explore this study's clinical relevance. We found that epidermal growth factor receptor (EGFR) signaling was hyperactivated in the livers of mice with NASH and human HCC specimens. Inhibition of EGFR signaling by HNK drastically attenuated HCC development in the mouse model. Mechanistically, HNK accelerated the nuclear translocation of glucocorticoid receptor (GR) and promoted mitogen-inducible gene 6 (MIG6)/ERBB receptor feedback inhibitor 1 (ERRFI1) expression, leading to EGFR degradation and thereby resulting in robust tumor suppression. In human samples, EGFR-positive HCC tissues and their corresponding non-tumor tissues exhibited decreased ERRFI1 mRNA expression. Additionally, GR-positive non-tumor liver tissues displayed lower EGFR expression. Livers from patients with advanced NASH exhibited decreased ERRFI1 expression. EGFR degradation or inactivation represents a novel approach for NASH-HCC treatment and prevention, and the GR-MIG6 axis is a newly defined target that can be activated by HNK and related compounds.