To investigate the performance of classic risk factors, and of some new biomarkers, in predicting cardiovascular mortality in very old people from the general population with no history of cardiovascular disease.

Variants associated with blood lipid levels may be population-specific. To identify low-frequency variants associated with this phenotype, population-specific reference panels may be used. Here we impute nine large Dutch biobanks (~35,000 samples) with the population-specific reference panel created by the Genome of The Netherlands Project and perform association testing with blood lipid levels. We report the discovery of five novel associations at four loci (P value <6.61 × 10(-4)), including a rare missense variant in ABCA6 (rs77542162, p.Cys1359Arg, frequency 0.034), which is predicted to be deleterious. The frequency of this ABCA6 variant is 3.65-fold increased in the Dutch and its effect (βLDL-C=0.135, βTC=0.140) is estimated to be very similar to those observed for single variants in well-known lipid genes, such as LDLR.

Approximately 1.5 billion people worldwide are overweight or affected by obesity, and are at risk of developing type 2 diabetes, cardiovascular disease and related metabolic and inflammatory disturbances. Although the mechanisms linking adiposity to associated clinical conditions are poorly understood, recent studies suggest that adiposity may influence DNA methylation, a key regulator of gene expression and molecular phenotype. Here we use epigenome-wide association to show that body mass index (BMI; a key measure of adiposity) is associated with widespread changes in DNA methylation (187 genetic loci with P < 1 × 10-7, range P = 9.2 × 10-8 to 6.0 × 10-46; n = 10,261 samples). Genetic association analyses demonstrate that the alterations in DNA methylation are predominantly the consequence of adiposity, rather than the cause. We find that methylation loci are enriched for functional genomic features in multiple tissues (P < 0.05), and show that sentinel methylation markers identify gene expression signatures at 38 loci (P < 9.0 × 10-6, range P = 5.5 × 10-6 to 6.1 × 10-35, n = 1,785 samples). The methylation loci identify genes involved in lipid and lipoprotein metabolism, substrate transport and inflammatory pathways. Finally, we show that the disturbances in DNA methylation predict future development of type 2 diabetes (relative risk per 1 standard deviation increase in methylation risk score: 2.3 (2.07-2.56); P = 1.1 × 10-54). Our results provide new insights into the biologic pathways influenced by adiposity, and may enable development of new strategies for prediction and prevention of type 2 diabetes and other adverse clinical consequences of obesity.

Various questionnaires and performance tests predict mortality in older people. However, most are heterogeneous, laborious and a validated consensus index is not available yet. Since most older people are regularly monitored by laboratory tests, we compared the predictive value of a profile of seven routine laboratory measurements on mortality in older persons in the general population with other predictors of mortality; gait speed and disability in instrumental activities of daily living (IADL).

Hypertension is a major risk factor for a spectrum of cardiovascular diseases (CVD), including myocardial infarction, sudden death, and stroke. In the US, over 65 million people have high blood pressure and a large proportion of these individuals are prescribed antihypertensive medications. Although large long-term clinical trials conducted in the last several decades have identified a number of effective antihypertensive treatments that reduce the risk of future clinical complications, responses to therapy and protection from cardiovascular events vary among individuals.

Looking young for one's age has been a desire since time immemorial. This desire is attributable to the belief that appearance reflects health and fecundity. Indeed, perceived age predicts survival [1] and associates with molecular markers of aging such as telomere length [2]. Understanding the underlying molecular biology of perceived age is vital for identifying new aging therapies among other purposes, but studies are lacking thus far. As a first attempt, we performed genome-wide association studies (GWASs) of perceived facial age and wrinkling estimated from digital facial images by analyzing over eight million SNPs in 2,693 elderly Dutch Europeans from the Rotterdam Study. The strongest genetic associations with perceived facial age were found for multiple SNPs in the MC1R gene (p < 1 × 10(-7)). This effect was enhanced for a compound heterozygosity marker constructed from four pre-selected functional MC1R SNPs (p = 2.69 × 10(-12)), which was replicated in 599 Dutch Europeans from the Leiden Longevity Study (p = 0.042) and in 1,173 Europeans of the TwinsUK Study (p = 3 × 10(-3)). Individuals carrying the homozygote MC1R risk haplotype looked on average up to 2 years older than non-carriers. This association was independent of age, sex, skin color, and sun damage (wrinkling, pigmented spots) and persisted through different sun-exposure levels. Hence, a role for MC1R in youthful looks independent of its known melanin synthesis function is suggested. Our study uncovers the first genetic evidence explaining why some people look older for their age and provides new leads for further investigating the biological basis of how old or young people look.

Genome-wide association studies have identified numerous loci linked with complex diseases, for which the molecular mechanisms remain largely unclear. Comprehensive molecular profiling of circulating metabolites captures highly heritable traits, which can help to uncover metabolic pathophysiology underlying established disease variants. We conduct an extended genome-wide association study of genetic influences on 123 circulating metabolic traits quantified by nuclear magnetic resonance metabolomics from up to 24,925 individuals and identify eight novel loci for amino acids, pyruvate and fatty acids. The LPA locus link with cardiovascular risk exemplifies how detailed metabolic profiling may inform underlying aetiology via extensive associations with very-low-density lipoprotein and triglyceride metabolism. Genetic fine mapping and Mendelian randomization uncover wide-spread causal effects of lipoprotein(a) on overall lipoprotein metabolism and we assess potential pleiotropic consequences of genetically elevated lipoprotein(a) on diverse morbidities via electronic health-care records. Our findings strengthen the argument for safe LPA-targeted intervention to reduce cardiovascular risk.

The PHArmacogenetic study of Statins in the Elderly at risk (PHASE) is a genome wide association study in the PROspective Study of Pravastatin in the Elderly at risk for vascular disease (PROSPER) that investigates the genetic variation responsible for the individual variation in drug response to pravastatin. Statins lower LDL-cholesterol in general by 30%, however not in all subjects. Moreover, clinical response is highly variable and adverse effects occur in a minority of patients. In this report we first describe the rationale of the PROSPER/PHASE project and second show that the PROSPER/PHASE study can be used to study pharmacogenetics in the elderly.

In genome-wide association studies (GWAS) of complex traits, single SNP analysis is still the most applied approach. However, the identified SNPs have small effects and provide limited biological insight. A more appropriate approach to interpret GWAS data of complex traits is to analyze the combined effect of a SNP set grouped per pathway or gene region. We used this approach to study the joint effect on human longevity of genetic variation in two candidate pathways, the insulin/insulin-like growth factor (IGF-1) signaling (IIS) pathway and the telomere maintenance (TM) pathway. For the analyses, we used genotyped GWAS data of 403 unrelated nonagenarians from long-lived sibships collected in the Leiden Longevity Study and 1,670 younger population controls. We analyzed 1,021 SNPs in 68 IIS pathway genes and 88 SNPs in 13 TM pathway genes using four self-contained pathway tests (PLINK set-based test, Global test, GRASS and SNP ratio test). Although we observed small differences between the results of the different pathway tests, they showed consistent significant association of the IIS and TM pathway SNP sets with longevity. Analysis of gene SNP sets from these pathways indicates that the association of the IIS pathway is scattered over several genes (AKT1, AKT3, FOXO4, IGF2, INS, PIK3CA, SGK, SGK2, and YWHAG), while the association of the TM pathway seems to be mainly determined by one gene (POT1). In conclusion, this study shows that genetic variation in genes involved in the IIS and TM pathways is associated with human longevity.

So far, more than 170 loci have been associated with circulating lipid levels through genome-wide association studies (GWAS). These associations are largely driven by common variants, their function is often not known, and many are likely to be markers for the causal variants. In this study we aimed to identify more new rare and low-frequency functional variants associated with circulating lipid levels.

Studies to confirm the effect of acknowledged prognostic markers in older breast cancer patients are scarce. The aim of this study was to evaluate the prognostic value of HER-2 overexpression and PIK3CA mutations in older breast cancer patients. Female breast cancer patients aged 65 years or older, diagnosed between 1997 and 2004 in a geographical region in The Netherlands, with an invasive, non-metastatic tumour and tumour material available, were included in the study. The primary endpoint was relapse-free period and secondary endpoint was relative survival. Determinants were immunochemical HER-2 scores (0/1+, 2+ or 3+) and PIK3CA as a binary measure. Overall, 1698 patients were included, and 103 had a HER-2 score of 3+. HER-2 overexpression was associated with a higher recurrence risk (5 years recurrence risk 34 % vs. 12 %, adjusted p = 0.005), and a worse relative survival (10 years relative survival 48 % vs. 84 % for HER-2 negative; p = 0.004). PIK3CA mutations had no significant prognostic effect. We showed, in older breast cancer patients, that HER-2 overexpression was significantly associated with a worse outcome, but PIK3CA mutations had no prognostic effect. These results imply that older patients with HER-2 overexpressing breast cancer might benefit from additional targeted anti-HER-2 therapy.

Human longevity is in part genetically determined, and the insulin/IGF-1 signal transduction (IIS) pathway has consistently been implicated. In humans, type 2 diabetes is a frequent disease that results from loss of glucose homeostasis and for which new candidate polymorphisms now rapidly emerge from genome wide association studies. In the Leiden Longevity Study (n=2415), the offspring of long lived siblings ("offspring") who are genetically enriched for longevity were shown to have a more beneficial metabolic profile compared to their environmentally matched partners ("controls"), including better glucose tolerance. We tested whether the "offspring" carry a lower burden of diabetes risk alleles. Fifteen polymorphisms derived from genome wide association (GWA) scans in type 2 diabetes were tested for association with parameters of glucose metabolism in offspring and controls, and burden of risk alleles was compared between offspring and controls. Among all participants, a higher number of type 2 diabetes risk alleles associated with a higher prevalence of diabetes (P=0.011) and higher serum concentration of glucose (P<0.016) but not insulin (P=0.450). None of the polymorphisms differed in frequency between the offspring and controls (all P>0.05), nor did the mean total number of risk alleles (P=0.977). The association between polymorphisms and glucose levels did not differ between controls and offspring (Pinteraction=0.523). The better glucose tolerance of the "offspring" is not explained by a lower burden of type 2 diabetes risk alleles, suggesting that specific mechanisms determining longevity exist.

To assess the effect of preventive pravastatin treatment on coronary heart disease (CHD) morbidity and mortality in older persons at risk for cardiovascular disease (CVD), stratified according to plasma levels of homocysteine.

Aging is associated with cognitive decline, diminished brain function, regional brain atrophy, and disrupted structural and functional brain connectivity. Understanding brain networks in aging is essential, as brain function depends on large-scale distributed networks. Little is known of structural covariance networks to study inter-regional gray matter anatomical associations in aging. Here, we investigate anatomical brain networks based on structural covariance of gray matter volume among 370 middle-aged to older adults of 45-85 years. For each of 370 subjects, we acquired a T1-weighted anatomical MRI scan. After segmentation of structural MRI scans, nine anatomical networks were defined based on structural covariance of gray matter volume among subjects. We analyzed associations between age and gray matter volume in anatomical networks using linear regression analyses. Age was negatively associated with gray matter volume in four anatomical networks (P < 0.001, corrected): a subcortical network, sensorimotor network, posterior cingulate network, and an anterior cingulate network. Age was not significantly associated with gray matter volume in five networks: temporal network, auditory network, and three cerebellar networks. These results were independent of gender and white matter hyperintensities. Gray matter volume decreases with age in networks containing subcortical structures, sensorimotor structures, posterior, and anterior cingulate cortices. Gray matter volume in temporal, auditory, and cerebellar networks remains relatively unaffected with advancing age.

C-reactive protein (CRP) is a sensitive biomarker of chronic low-grade inflammation and is associated with multiple complex diseases. The genetic determinants of chronic inflammation remain largely unknown, and the causal role of CRP in several clinical outcomes is debated. We performed two genome-wide association studies (GWASs), on HapMap and 1000 Genomes imputed data, of circulating amounts of CRP by using data from 88 studies comprising 204,402 European individuals. Additionally, we performed in silico functional analyses and Mendelian randomization analyses with several clinical outcomes. The GWAS meta-analyses of CRP revealed 58 distinct genetic loci (p < 5 × 10-8). After adjustment for body mass index in the regression analysis, the associations at all except three loci remained. The lead variants at the distinct loci explained up to 7.0% of the variance in circulating amounts of CRP. We identified 66 gene sets that were organized in two substantially correlated clusters, one mainly composed of immune pathways and the other characterized by metabolic pathways in the liver. Mendelian randomization analyses revealed a causal protective effect of CRP on schizophrenia and a risk-increasing effect on bipolar disorder. Our findings provide further insights into the biology of inflammation and could lead to interventions for treating inflammation and its clinical consequences.

An increasing number of genome-wide association (GWA) studies are now using the higher resolution 1000 Genomes Project reference panel (1000G) for imputation, with the expectation that 1000G imputation will lead to the discovery of additional associated loci when compared to HapMap imputation. In order to assess the improvement of 1000G over HapMap imputation in identifying associated loci, we compared the results of GWA studies of circulating fibrinogen based on the two reference panels. Using both HapMap and 1000G imputation we performed a meta-analysis of 22 studies comprising the same 91,953 individuals. We identified six additional signals using 1000G imputation, while 29 loci were associated using both HapMap and 1000G imputation. One locus identified using HapMap imputation was not significant using 1000G imputation. The genome-wide significance threshold of 5×10-8 is based on the number of independent statistical tests using HapMap imputation, and 1000G imputation may lead to further independent tests that should be corrected for. When using a stricter Bonferroni correction for the 1000G GWA study (P-value < 2.5×10-8), the number of loci significant only using HapMap imputation increased to 4 while the number of loci significant only using 1000G decreased to 5. In conclusion, 1000G imputation enabled the identification of 20% more loci than HapMap imputation, although the advantage of 1000G imputation became less clear when a stricter Bonferroni correction was used. More generally, our results provide insights that are applicable to the implementation of other dense reference panels that are under development.

Reference panels from the 1000 Genomes (1000G) Project Consortium provide near complete coverage of common and low-frequency genetic variation with minor allele frequency ≥0.5% across European ancestry populations. Within the European Network for Genetic and Genomic Epidemiology (ENGAGE) Consortium, we have undertaken the first large-scale meta-analysis of genome-wide association studies (GWAS), supplemented by 1000G imputation, for four quantitative glycaemic and obesity-related traits, in up to 87,048 individuals of European ancestry. We identified two loci for body mass index (BMI) at genome-wide significance, and two for fasting glucose (FG), none of which has been previously reported in larger meta-analysis efforts to combine GWAS of European ancestry. Through conditional analysis, we also detected multiple distinct signals of association mapping to established loci for waist-hip ratio adjusted for BMI (RSPO3) and FG (GCK and G6PC2). The index variant for one association signal at the G6PC2 locus is a low-frequency coding allele, H177Y, which has recently been demonstrated to have a functional role in glucose regulation. Fine-mapping analyses revealed that the non-coding variants most likely to drive association signals at established and novel loci were enriched for overlap with enhancer elements, which for FG mapped to promoter and transcription factor binding sites in pancreatic islets, in particular. Our study demonstrates that 1000G imputation and genetic fine-mapping of common and low-frequency variant association signals at GWAS loci, integrated with genomic annotation in relevant tissues, can provide insight into the functional and regulatory mechanisms through which their effects on glycaemic and obesity-related traits are mediated.

Circulating inflammatory markers may more strongly relate to risk of fatal versus nonfatal cardiovascular disease (CVD) events, but robust prospective evidence is lacking. We tested whether interleukin (IL)-6, C-reactive protein (CRP), and fibrinogen more strongly associate with fatal compared to nonfatal myocardial infarction (MI) and stroke.

The PROspective Study of Pravastatin in the Elderly at Risk (PROSPER), a placebo-controlled trial of pravastatin, demonstrated a 19% reduction in coronary outcomes (p=0.006) after a mean of 3.2 years, with no impact on stroke outcomes or all-cause mortality. However, there was a suggestion of increased cancer risk. Our aim is to determine the long-term benefits and safety of pravastatin treatment in older people using post-trial follow-up of the PROSPER participants.

Human leukocyte telomere length (LTL) decreases with age and shorter LTL has previously been associated with increased prospective mortality. However, it is not clear whether LTL merely marks the health status of an individual by its association with parameters of immune function, for example, or whether telomere shortening also contributes causally to lifespan variation in humans.