In transcriptome-wide association studies (TWAS), gene expression values are predicted using genotype data and tested for association with a phenotype. The power of this approach to detect associations relies, at least in part, on the accuracy of the prediction. Here we compare the prediction accuracy of six different methods-LASSO, Ridge regression, Elastic net, Best Linear Unbiased Predictor, Bayesian Sparse Linear Mixed Model, and Random Forests-by performing cross-validation using data from the Geuvadis Project. We also examine prediction accuracy (a) at different sample sizes, (b) when ancestry of the prediction model training and testing populations is different, and (c) when the tissue used to train the model is different from the tissue to be predicted. We find that, for most genes, the expression cannot be accurately predicted, but in general sparse statistical models tend to outperform polygenic models at prediction. Average prediction accuracy is reduced when the model training set size is reduced or when predicting across ancestries and is marginally reduced when predicting across tissues. We conclude that using sparse statistical models and the development of large reference panels across multiple ethnicities and tissues will lead to better prediction of gene expression, and thus may improve TWAS power.

As popularised by PrediXcan (and related methods), transcriptome-wide association studies (TWAS), in which gene expression is imputed from single-nucleotide polymorphism (SNP) genotypes and tested for association with a phenotype, are a popular approach for investigating the role of gene expression in complex traits. Like gene expression, DNA methylation is an important biological process and, being under genetic regulation, may be imputable from SNP genotypes. Here, we investigate prediction of CpG methylation levels from SNP genotype data to help elucidate relationships between methylation, gene expression and complex traits. We start by examining how well CpG methylation can be predicted from SNP genotypes, comparing three penalised regression approaches and examining whether changing the window size improves prediction accuracy. Although methylation at most CpG sites cannot be accurately predicted from SNP genotypes, for a subset it can be predicted well. We next apply our methylation prediction models (trained using the optimal method and window size) to carry out a methylome-wide association study (MWAS) of primary biliary cholangitis. We intersect the regions identified via MWAS with those identified via TWAS, providing insight into the interplay between CpG methylation, gene expression and disease status. We conclude that MWAS has the potential to improve understanding of biological mechanisms in complex traits.

Genome-wide association studies have been successful in identifying loci contributing effects to a range of complex human traits. The majority of reproducible associations within these loci are with common variants, each of modest effect, which together explain only a small proportion of heritability. It has been suggested that much of the unexplained genetic component of complex traits can thus be attributed to rare variation. However, genome-wide association study genotyping chips have been designed primarily to capture common variation, and thus are underpowered to detect the effects of rare variants. Nevertheless, we demonstrate here, by simulation, that imputation from an existing scaffold of genome-wide genotype data up to high-density reference panels has the potential to identify rare variant associations with complex traits, without the need for costly re-sequencing experiments. By application of this approach to genome-wide association studies of seven common complex diseases, imputed up to publicly available reference panels, we identify genome-wide significant evidence of rare variant association in PRDM10 with coronary artery disease and multiple genes in the major histocompatibility complex (MHC) with type 1 diabetes. The results of our analyses highlight that genome-wide association studies have the potential to offer an exciting opportunity for gene discovery through association with rare variants, conceivably leading to substantial advancements in our understanding of the genetic architecture underlying complex human traits.

The ultimate goal of genome-wide association (GWA) studies is to identify genetic variants contributing effects to complex phenotypes in order to improve our understanding of the biological architecture underlying the trait. One approach to allow us to meet this challenge is to consider more refined sub-phenotypes of disease, defined by pattern of symptoms, for example, which may be physiologically distinct, and thus may have different underlying genetic causes. The disadvantage of sub-phenotype analysis is that large disease cohorts are sub-divided into smaller case categories, thus reducing power to detect association. To address this issue, we have developed a novel test of association within a multinomial regression modeling framework, allowing for heterogeneity of genetic effects between sub-phenotypes. The modeling framework is extremely flexible, and can be generalized to any number of distinct sub-phenotypes. Simulations demonstrate the power of the multinomial regression-based analysis over existing methods when genetic effects differ between sub-phenotypes, with minimal loss of power when these effects are homogenous for the unified phenotype. Application of the multinomial regression analysis to a genome-wide association study of type 2 diabetes, with cases categorized according to body mass index, highlights previously recognized differential mechanisms underlying obese and non-obese forms of the disease, and provides evidence of a potential novel association that warrants follow-up in independent replication cohorts.

Despite the success of genome-wide association studies, much of the genetic contribution to complex human traits is still unexplained. One potential source of genetic variation that may contribute to this "missing heritability" is that which differs in magnitude and/or direction between males and females, which could result from sexual dimorphism in gene expression. Such sex-differentiated effects are common in model organisms, and are becoming increasingly evident in human complex traits through large-scale male- and female-specific meta-analyses. In this article, we review the methodology for meta-analysis of sex-specific genome-wide association studies, and propose a sex-differentiated test of association with quantitative or dichotomous traits, which allows for heterogeneity of allelic effects between males and females. We perform detailed simulations to compare the power of the proposed sex-differentiated meta-analysis with the more traditional "sex-combined" approach, which is ambivalent to gender. The results of this study highlight only a small loss in power for the sex-differentiated meta-analysis when the allelic effects of the causal variant are the same in males and females. However, over a range of models of heterogeneity in allelic effects between genders, our sex-differentiated meta-analysis strategy offers substantial gains in power, and thus has the potential to discover novel loci contributing effects to complex human traits with existing genome-wide association data.

Genome-wide association (GWA) studies have been extremely successful in identifying novel loci contributing effects to a wide range of complex human traits. However, despite this success, the joint marginal effects of these loci account for only a small proportion of the heritability of these traits. Interactions between variants in different loci are not typically modelled in traditional GWA analysis, but may account for some of the missing heritability in humans, as they do in other model organisms. One of the key challenges in performing gene-gene interaction studies is the computational burden of the analysis. We propose a two-stage interaction analysis strategy to address this challenge in the context of both quantitative traits and dichotomous phenotypes. We have performed simulations to demonstrate only a negligible loss in power of this two-stage strategy, while minimizing the computational burden. Application of this interaction strategy to GWA studies of T2D and obesity highlights potential novel signals of association, which warrant follow-up in larger cohorts.

Diseases often cooccur in individuals more often than expected by chance, and may be explained by shared underlying genetic etiology. A common approach to genetic overlap analyses is to use summary genome-wide association study data to identify single-nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) that are associated with multiple traits at a selected P-value threshold. However, P-values do not account for differences in power, whereas Bayes' factors (BFs) do, and may be approximated using summary statistics. We use simulation studies to compare the power of frequentist and Bayesian approaches with overlap analyses, and to decide on appropriate thresholds for comparison between the two methods. It is empirically illustrated that BFs have the advantage over P-values of a decreasing type I error rate as study size increases for single-disease associations. Consequently, the overlap analysis of traits from different-sized studies encounters issues in fair P-value threshold selection, whereas BFs are adjusted automatically. Extensive simulations show that Bayesian overlap analyses tend to have higher power than those that assess association strength with P-values, particularly in low-power scenarios. Calibration tables between BFs and P-values are provided for a range of sample sizes, as well as an approximation approach for sample sizes that are not in the calibration table. Although P-values are sometimes thought more intuitive, these tables assist in removing the opaqueness of Bayesian thresholds and may also be used in the selection of a BF threshold to meet a certain type I error rate. An application of our methods is used to identify variants associated with both obesity and osteoarthritis.