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Spatial predictions and uncertainties of forest carbon fluxes for carbon accounting.

Scientific reports | 2023

Countries have pledged to different national and international environmental agreements, most prominently the climate change mitigation targets of the Paris Agreement. Accounting for carbon stocks and flows (fluxes) is essential for countries that have recently adopted the United Nations System of Environmental-Economic Accounting - ecosystem accounting framework (UNSEEA) as a global statistical standard. In this paper, we analyze how spatial carbon fluxes can be used in support of the UNSEEA carbon accounts in five case countries with available in-situ data. Using global multi-date biomass map products and other remotely sensed data, we mapped the 2010-2018 carbon fluxes in Brazil, the Netherlands, the Philippines, Sweden and the USA using National Forest Inventory (NFI) and local biomass maps from airborne LiDAR as reference data. We identified areas that are unsupported by the reference data within environmental feature space (6-47% of vegetated country area); cross-validated an ensemble machine learning (RMSE=9-39 Mg C [Formula: see text] and [Formula: see text]=0.16-0.71) used to map carbon fluxes with prediction intervals; and assessed spatially correlated residuals (<5 km) before aggregating carbon fluxes from 1-ha pixels to UNSEEA forest classes. The resulting carbon accounting tables revealed the net carbon sequestration in natural broadleaved forests. Both in plantations and in other woody vegetation ecosystems, emissions exceeded sequestration. Overall, our estimates align with FAO-Forest Resource Assessment and national studies with the largest deviations in Brazil and USA. These two countries used highly clustered reference data, where clustering caused uncertainty given the need to extrapolate to under-sampled areas. We finally provide recommendations to mitigate the effect of under-sampling and to better account for the uncertainties once carbon stocks and flows need to be aggregated in relatively smaller countries. These actions are timely given the global initiatives that aim to upscale UNSEEA carbon accounting.

Pubmed ID: 37543683 RIS Download

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GEDI (tool)

RRID:SCR_008530

A program that opens a new perspective to the analysis of microarray data (e.g., gene expression profiling). Unlike traditional gene clustering software, GEDI is primarily sample-oriented rather than gene-oriented. By treating each high-dimensional sample, such as one microarray experiment, as an object, it accentuates the genome-wide response of a tissue or a patient and treats it as an integrated biological entity. Hence, GEDI honors the new spirit of a system-level approach in biology. Yet, it also allows the researcher to quickly zoom-in from global patterns onto individual genes that exhibit interesting expression behavior and retrieve gene-specific information. Therefore, GEDI unites a novel holistic perspective with the traditional gene-centered approach in molecular biology. GEDI allows experimental biologists or clinicians with no bioinformatics background to efficiently and intuitively navigate through a large number of expression profiles, each with a memorizable face, and inspect, group and collect them, like managing a stack of baseball cards. DYNAMIC ANALYSIS: The unique strength of GEDI, for which GEDI was originally developed, is that it can display the results of parallel monitoring of multiple high-dimensional time courses, such as the comparison of expression profile time evolution in response to a series of drugs. GEDI creates animated graphics showing how 10,000s of genes change their expression over time in response to 100s of separately tested drugs. STATIC ANAYLSIS: The signature graphical output of GEDI, the GEDI-mosaics provide a unique, one-glance visual engram that gives each microarray or other high-dimensional dataset a face. A characteristic of GEDI''s analysis is that it does not prejudicate any particular structure in the data (such as clusters or hierarchical organization). Thus, it allows the researcher to use human pattern recognition to perform a global first-level analysis of the data. Sponsor. The project was supported by the Air Force Office of Scientific Research and the National Health Institutes. It is distributed for free academic use by the Childrens Hospital, Boston.

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