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One of the most important tasks for humans is the attribution of causes and effects in all wakes of life. The first systematical study of visual perception of causality-often referred to as phenomenal causality-was done by Albert Michotte using his now well-known launching events paradigm. Launching events are the seeming collision and seeming transfer of movement between two objects-abstract, featureless stimuli ("objects") in Michotte's original experiments. Here, we study the relation between causal ratings for launching events in Michotte's setting and launching collisions in a photorealistically computer-rendered setting. We presented launching events with differing temporal gaps, the same launching processes with photorealistic billiard balls, as well as photorealistic billiard balls with realistic motion dynamics, that is, an initial rebound of the first ball after collision and a short sliding phase of the second ball due to momentum and friction. We found that providing the normal launching stimulus with realistic visuals led to lower causal ratings, but realistic visuals together with realistic motion dynamics evoked higher ratings. Two-dimensional versus three-dimensional presentation, on the other hand, did not affect phenomenal causality. We discuss our results in terms of intuitive physics as well as cue conflict.
A number of studies have tried to exploit subtle phase differences in BOLD time series to resolve the order of sequential activation of brain regions, or more generally the ability of signal in one region to predict subsequent signal in another region. More recently, such lag-based measures have been applied to investigate directed functional connectivity, although this application has been controversial. We attempted to use large publicly available datasets (FCON 1000, ADHD 200, Human Connectome Project) to determine whether consistent spatial patterns of Granger Causality are observed in typical fMRI data. For BOLD datasets from 1,240 typically developing subjects ages 7-40, we measured Granger causality between time series for every pair of 7,266 spherical ROIs covering the gray matter and 264 seed ROIs at hubs of the brain's functional network architecture. Granger causality estimates were strongly reproducible for connections in a test and replication sample (n=620 subjects for each group), as well as in data from a single subject scanned repeatedly, both during resting and passive video viewing. The same effect was even stronger in high temporal resolution fMRI data from the Human Connectome Project, and was observed independently in data collected during performance of 7 task paradigms. The spatial distribution of Granger causality reflected vascular anatomy with a progression from Granger causality sources, in Circle of Willis arterial inflow distributions, to sinks, near large venous vascular structures such as dural venous sinuses and at the periphery of the brain. Attempts to resolve BOLD phase differences with Granger causality should consider the possibility of reproducible vascular confounds, a problem that is independent of the known regional variability of the hemodynamic response.
Constantly advancing computer simulations of biomolecules provide huge amounts of data that are difficult to interpret. In particular, obtaining insights into functional aspects of macromolecular dynamics, often related to cascades of transient events, calls for methodologies that depart from the well-grounded framework of equilibrium statistical physics. One of the approaches toward the analysis of complex temporal data which has found applications in the fields of neuroscience and econometrics is Granger causality analysis. It allows determining which components of multidimensional time series are most influential for the evolution of the entire system, thus providing insights into causal relations within the dynamic structure of interest. In this work, we apply Granger analysis to a long molecular dynamics trajectory depicting repetitive folding and unfolding of a mini β-hairpin protein, CLN025. We find objective, quantitative evidence indicating that rearrangements within the hairpin turn region are determinant for protein folding and unfolding. On the contrary, interactions between hairpin arms score low on the causality scale. Taken together, these findings clearly favor the concept of zipperlike folding, which is one of two postulated β-hairpin folding mechanisms. More importantly, the results demonstrate the possibility of a conclusive application of Granger causality analysis to a biomolecular system.
When a material is stretched along a spatial axis, it is causally compressed along the orthogonal axis, as quantified in the Poisson effect. The present study examined how human observers assess this causality. Stimuli were video clips of a white rectangular region that was horizontally stretched while it was vertically compressed, with spatially sinusoidal modulation of the magnitude of vertical compressions. It was found that the Poisson's ratio-a well-defined index of the Poisson effect-was not an explanatory factor for the degree of reported causality. Instead, reported causality was explained by image features related to deformation magnitudes. Comparing a material's shape before and after deformation was not always required for the causality assessment. This suggests that human observers determine causality in the Poisson effect by using heuristics based on image features not necessarily related to the physical properties of the material.
Gut microbes are considered as major factors contributing to human health. Nowadays, the vast majority of the data available in the literature are mostly exhibiting negative or positive correlations between specific bacteria and metabolic parameters. From these observations, putative detrimental or beneficial effects are then inferred. Akkermansia muciniphila is one of the unique examples for which the correlations with health benefits have been causally validated in vivo in rodents and humans. In this study, based on available metagenomic data in overweight/obese population and clinical variables that we obtained from two cohorts of individuals (n = 108) we identified several metagenomic species (MGS) strongly associated with A. muciniphila with one standing out: Subdoligranulum. By analyzing both qPCR and shotgun metagenomic data, we discovered that the abundance of Subdoligranulum was correlated positively with microbial richness and HDL-cholesterol levels and negatively correlated with fat mass, adipocyte diameter, insulin resistance, levels of leptin, insulin, CRP, and IL6 in humans. Therefore, to further explore whether these strong correlations could be translated into causation, we investigated the effects of the unique cultivated strain of Subdoligranulum (Subdoligranulum variabile DSM 15176 T) in obese and diabetic mice as a proof-of-concept. Strikingly, there were no significant difference in any of the hallmarks of obesity and diabetes measured (e.g., body weight gain, fat mass gain, glucose tolerance, liver weight, plasma lipids) at the end of the 8 weeks of treatment. Therefore, the absence of effect following the supplementation with S. variabile indicates that increasing the intestinal abundance of this bacterium is not translated into beneficial effects in mice. In conclusion, we demonstrated that despite the fact that numerous strong correlations exist between a given bacteria and health, proof-of-concept experiments are required to be further validated or not in vivo. Hence, an urgent need for causality studies is warranted to move from human observations to preclinical validations.
That physiological oscillations of various frequencies are present in fMRI signals is the rule, not the exception. Herein, we propose a novel theoretical framework, spatio-temporal Granger causality, which allows us to more reliably and precisely estimate the Granger causality from experimental datasets possessing time-varying properties caused by physiological oscillations. Within this framework, Granger causality is redefined as a global index measuring the directed information flow between two time series with time-varying properties. Both theoretical analyses and numerical examples demonstrate that Granger causality is a monotonically increasing function of the temporal resolution used in the estimation. This is consistent with the general principle of coarse graining, which causes information loss by smoothing out very fine-scale details in time and space. Our results confirm that the Granger causality at the finer spatio-temporal scales considerably outperforms the traditional approach in terms of an improved consistency between two resting-state scans of the same subject. To optimally estimate the Granger causality, the proposed theoretical framework is implemented through a combination of several approaches, such as dividing the optimal time window and estimating the parameters at the fine temporal and spatial scales. Taken together, our approach provides a novel and robust framework for estimating the Granger causality from fMRI, EEG, and other related data.
Oxytocin has been administered to patients with autism spectrum disorder (ASD) in order to improve social skills, communication, and manage repetitive behaviors in the context of research trials. The majority of the studies focus on acute administration; thus, the effectiveness and potential side effects of chronic administration remain unknown. The main goal of this case report is to highlight the importance of the safety parameters for the chronic use of intranasal oxytocin administration. In a single case conducted in our outpatient clinic, one adolescent (15 years old) received intranasal oxytocin (24 IU) twice per day, in accordance with the recommended doses for this age group that varies from 8 - 25 IU twice per day. After three weeks of treatment, the patient presented with gynecomastia. While it is not certain that the gynecomastia was oxytocin-induced, this case highlights the importance of developing optimal regimens for chronic oxytocin administration, with a particular focus on safety parameters.
Estimation of causal interactions between brain areas is necessary for elucidating large-scale functional brain networks underlying behavior and cognition. Granger causality analysis of time series data can quantitatively estimate directional information flow between brain regions. Here, we show that such estimates are significantly improved when the temporal sampling rate of functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI) is increased 20-fold. Specifically, healthy volunteers performed a simple visuomotor task during blood oxygenation level dependent (BOLD) contrast based whole-head inverse imaging (InI). Granger causality analysis based on raw InI BOLD data sampled at 100-ms resolution detected the expected causal relations, whereas when the data were downsampled to the temporal resolution of 2 s typically used in echo-planar fMRI, the causality could not be detected. An additional control analysis, in which we SINC interpolated additional data points to the downsampled time series at 0.1-s intervals, confirmed that the improvements achieved with the real InI data were not explainable by the increased time-series length alone. We therefore conclude that the high-temporal resolution of InI improves the Granger causality connectivity analysis of the human brain.
Disease causative non-coding RNAs (ncRNAs) are of great importance in understanding a disease, for they directly contribute to the development or progress of a disease. Identifying the causative ncRNAs can provide vital implications for biomedical researches. In this work, we updated the long non-coding RNA disease database (LncRNADisease) with long non-coding RNA (lncRNA) causality information with manual annotations of the causal associations between lncRNAs/circular RNAs (circRNAs) and diseases by reviewing related publications. Of the total 11 568 experimental associations, 2297 out of 10 564 lncRNA-disease associations and 198 out of 1004 circRNA-disease associations were identified to be causal, whereas 635 lncRNAs and 126 circRNAs were identified to be causative for the development or progress of at least one disease. The updated information and functions of the database can offer great help to future researches involving lncRNA/circRNA-disease relationship. The latest LncRNADisease database is available at http://www.rnanut.net/lncrnadisease.
Epilepsy is a chronic neurological disorder characterized by repeated seizures or excessive electrical discharges in a group of brain cells. Prevalence rates include about 50 million people worldwide and 10% of all people have at least one seizure at one time in their lives. Connectivity models of epilepsy serve to provide a deeper understanding of the processes that control and regulate seizure activity. These models have received initial support and have included measures of EEG, MEG, and MRI connectivity. Preliminary findings have shown regions of increased connectivity in the immediate regions surrounding the seizure foci and associated low connectivity in nearby regions and pathways. There is also early evidence to suggest that these patterns change during ictal events and that these changes may even by related to the occurrence or triggering of seizure events. We present data showing how Granger causality can be used with EEG data to measure connectivity across brain regions involved in ictal events and their resolution. We have provided two case examples as a demonstration of how to obtain and interpret such data. EEG data of ictal events are processed, converted to independent components and their dipole localizations, and these are used to measure causality and connectivity between these locations. Both examples have shown hypercoupling near the seizure foci and low causality across nearby and associated neuronal pathways. This technique also allows us to track how these measures change over time and during the ictal and post-ictal periods. Areas for further research into this technique, its application to epilepsy, and the formation of more effective therapeutic interventions are recommended.
An improved understanding of changes in flood hazard and the underlying driving mechanisms is critical for predicting future changes for better adaptation strategies. While recent increases in flooding across the world have been partly attributed to a range of atmospheric or landscape drivers, one often-forgotten driver of changes in flood properties is the variability of river conveyance capacity. This paper proposes a new framework for connecting flood changes to longitudinal variability in river conveyance, precipitation climatology, flows and sediment connectivity. We present a first step, based on a regional analysis, towards a longer-term research effort that is required to decipher the circular causality between floods and rivers. The results show how this system of interacting units in the atmospheric, hydrologic and geomorphological realm function as a nonlinear filter that fundamentally alters the frequency of flood events. To revise and refine our estimation of future flood risk, this work highlights that multidriver attribution studies are needed, that include boundary conditions such as underlying climate, water and sediment connectivity, and explicit estimations of river conveyance properties.
Genome-wide association studies (GWAS) have found hundreds of single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) associated with common diseases. However, it is largely unknown what genes linked with the SNPs actually implicate disease causality. A definitive proof for disease causality can be demonstration of disease-like phenotypes through genetic perturbation of the genes or alleles, which is obviously a daunting task for complex diseases where only mammalian models can be used.
The pathogenesis and clinical heterogeneity of Parkinson's disease (PD) have been evaluated from molecular, pathophysiological, and clinical perspectives. High-throughput proteomic analysis of cerebrospinal fluid (CSF) opened new opportunities for scrutinizing this heterogeneity. To date, this is the most comprehensive CSF-based proteomics profiling study in PD with 569 patients (350 idiopathic patients, 65 GBA + mutation carriers and 154 LRRK2 + mutation carriers), 534 controls, and 4135 proteins analyzed. Combining CSF aptamer-based proteomics with genetics we determined protein quantitative trait loci (pQTLs). Analyses of pQTLs together with summary statistics from the largest PD genome wide association study (GWAS) identified 68 potential causal proteins by Mendelian randomization. The top causal protein, GPNMB, was previously reported to be upregulated in the substantia nigra of PD patients. We also compared the CSF proteomes of patients and controls. Proteome differences between GBA + patients and unaffected GBA + controls suggest degeneration of dopaminergic neurons, altered dopamine metabolism and increased brain inflammation. In the LRRK2 + subcohort we found dysregulated lysosomal degradation, altered alpha-synuclein processing, and neurotransmission. Proteome differences between idiopathic patients and controls suggest increased neuroinflammation, mitochondrial dysfunction/oxidative stress, altered iron metabolism and potential neuroprotection mediated by vasoactive substances. Finally, we used proteomic data to stratify idiopathic patients into "endotypes". The identified endotypes show differences in cognitive and motor disease progression based on previously reported protein-based risk scores.Our findings not only contribute to the identification of new therapeutic targets but also to shape personalized medicine in CNS neurodegeneration.
The availability of genome-wide association studies (GWASs) for human blood metabolome provides an excellent opportunity for studying metabolism in a heritable disease such as migraine. Utilizing GWAS summary statistics, we conduct comprehensive pairwise genetic analyses to estimate polygenic genetic overlap and causality between 316 unique blood metabolite levels and migraine risk. We find significant genome-wide genetic overlap between migraine and 44 metabolites, mostly lipid and organic acid metabolic traits (FDR < 0.05). We also identify 36 metabolites, mostly related to lipoproteins, that have shared genetic influences with migraine at eight independent genomic loci (posterior probability > 0.9) across chromosomes 3, 5, 6, 9, and 16. The observed relationships between genetic factors influencing blood metabolite levels and genetic risk for migraine suggest an alteration of metabolite levels in individuals with migraine. Our analyses suggest higher levels of fatty acids, except docosahexaenoic acid (DHA), a very long-chain omega-3, in individuals with migraine. Consistently, we found a causally protective role for a longer length of fatty acids against migraine. We also identified a causal effect for a higher level of a lysophosphatidylethanolamine, LPE(20:4), on migraine, thus introducing LPE(20:4) as a potential therapeutic target for migraine.
Spike-timing-dependent plasticity (STDP) is a candidate mechanism for information storage in the brain, but the whole-cell recordings required for the experimental induction of STDP are typically limited to 1 h. This mismatch of time scales is a long-standing weakness in synaptic theories of memory. Here we use spectrally separated optogenetic stimulation to fire precisely timed action potentials (spikes) in CA3 and CA1 pyramidal cells. Twenty minutes after optogenetic induction of STDP (oSTDP), we observed timing-dependent depression (tLTD) and timing-dependent potentiation (tLTP), depending on the sequence of spiking. As oSTDP does not require electrodes, we could also assess the strength of these paired connections three days later. At this late time point, late tLTP was observed for both causal (CA3 before CA1) and anticausal (CA1 before CA3) timing, but not for asynchronous activity patterns (Δt = 50 ms). Blocking activity after induction of oSTDP prevented stable potentiation. Our results confirm that neurons wire together if they fire together, but suggest that synaptic depression after anticausal activation (tLTD) is a transient phenomenon.
It is reported that overweight may lead to accelerated aging. However, there is still a lack of evidence on the causal effect of overweight and aging. We collected genetic variants associated with overweight, age proxy indicators (telomere length, frailty index and facial aging), etc., from genome-wide association studies datasets. Then we performed MR analyses to explore associations between overweight and age proxy indicators. MR analyses were primarily conducted using the inverse variance weighted method, followed by various sensitivity and validation analyses. MR analyses indicated that there were significant associations of overweight on telomere length, frailty index, and facial aging (β = -0.018, 95% CI = -0.033 to -0.003, p = 0.0162; β = 0.055, 95% CI = 0.030-0.079, p < 0.0001; β = 0.029, 95% CI = 0.013-0.046, p = 0.0005 respectively). Overweight also had a significant negative causality with longevity expectancy (90th survival percentile, β = -0.220, 95% CI = -0.323 to -0.118, p < 0.0001; 99th survival percentile, β = -0.389, 95% CI = -0.652 to -0.126, p = 0.0038). Moreover, the findings tend to favor causal links between body fat mass/body fat percentage on aging proxy indicators, but not body fat-free mass. This study provides evidence of the causality between overweight and accelerated aging (telomere length decreased, frailty index increased, facial aging increased) and lower longevity expectancy. Accordingly, the potential significance of weight control and treatment of overweight in combating accelerated aging need to be emphasized.
Granger causality analysis is becoming central for the analysis of interactions between neural populations and oscillatory networks. However, it is currently unclear whether single-trial estimates of Granger causality spectra can be used reliably to assess directional influence. We addressed this issue by combining single-trial Granger causality spectra with statistical inference based on general linear models. The approach was assessed on synthetic and neurophysiological data. Synthetic bivariate data was generated using two autoregressive processes with unidirectional coupling. We simulated two hypothetical experimental conditions: the first mimicked a constant and unidirectional coupling, whereas the second modelled a linear increase in coupling across trials. The statistical analysis of single-trial Granger causality spectra, based on t-tests and linear regression, successfully recovered the underlying pattern of directional influence. In addition, we characterised the minimum number of trials and coupling strengths required for significant detection of directionality. Finally, we demonstrated the relevance for neurophysiology by analysing two local field potentials (LFPs) simultaneously recorded from the prefrontal and premotor cortices of a macaque monkey performing a conditional visuomotor task. Our results suggest that the combination of single-trial Granger causality spectra and statistical inference provides a valuable tool for the analysis of large-scale cortical networks and brain connectivity.
The heterogeneous graphical Granger model (HGGM) for causal inference among processes with distributions from an exponential family is efficient in scenarios when the number of time observations is much greater than the number of time series, normally by several orders of magnitude. However, in the case of "short" time series, the inference in HGGM often suffers from overestimation. To remedy this, we use the minimum message length principle (MML) to determinate the causal connections in the HGGM. The minimum message length as a Bayesian information-theoretic method for statistical model selection applies Occam's razor in the following way: even when models are equal in their measure of fit-accuracy to the observed data, the one generating the most concise explanation of data is more likely to be correct. Based on the dispersion coefficient of the target time series and on the initial maximum likelihood estimates of the regression coefficients, we propose a minimum message length criterion to select the subset of causally connected time series with each target time series and derive its form for various exponential distributions. We propose two algorithms-the genetic-type algorithm (HMMLGA) and exHMML to find the subset. We demonstrated the superiority of both algorithms in synthetic experiments with respect to the comparison methods Lingam, HGGM and statistical framework Granger causality (SFGC). In the real data experiments, we used the methods to discriminate between pregnancy and labor phase using electrohysterogram data of Islandic mothers from Physionet databasis. We further analysed the Austrian climatological time measurements and their temporal interactions in rain and sunny days scenarios. In both experiments, the results of HMMLGA had the most realistic interpretation with respect to the comparison methods. We provide our code in Matlab. To our best knowledge, this is the first work using the MML principle for causal inference in HGGM.
The discovery of rare genetic variants is accelerating, and clear guidelines for distinguishing disease-causing sequence variants from the many potentially functional variants present in any human genome are urgently needed. Without rigorous standards we risk an acceleration of false-positive reports of causality, which would impede the translation of genomic research findings into the clinical diagnostic setting and hinder biological understanding of disease. Here we discuss the key challenges of assessing sequence variants in human disease, integrating both gene-level and variant-level support for causality. We propose guidelines for summarizing confidence in variant pathogenicity and highlight several areas that require further resource development.
After the economic liberalization in mid-2000, Tanzania has assumed that tourism growth spars economic growth due to the consistent significant contribution of tourism sector to the country's annual income. However, there are limited empirical studies that investigated tourism-economic growth relationship in Tanzania. This study aims to investigate an empirical insight into the actual nature of tourism-economic growth in Tanzania by applying the Granger causality and Wald test methods where annual time series data on international tourism receipt, real Gross Domestic Product, and real effective exchange rate over the period 1989-2018 are used. Further, the Impulse Response Function approach is utilized to provide insight into the qualitative nature of the relationships and the length of time necessary for the causal effect to take place. The findings confirm a unidirectional causality from tourism development to economic growth. The study concludes that Tanzania ought to focus on economic strategies that encourage sustainable tourism development as a feasible source of economic growth.
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